The week kicked off in Brussels with a big sigh of relief as the centrist liberal Emmanuel Macron took the lead in the first round of the French elections. Although a morning-after hangover of the post-Brexit or post-Trump votes variety is still possible come 8 May, Brussels is breathing easier this week – and, after months of tension, even feeling somewhat optimistic about the future.
The possibility of a run-off between two eurosceptic extremists, Le Pen and Melanchon, has been averted. Fillon, a pro-Russian “intergovernmentalist”, is also out of the race.
Now, France is being offered a clear ideological choice, epitomised by the two remaining candidates’ clashing visions of Europe. A Le Pen win might well sound the death knell of European integration. But a Macron win – which seems far more likely – promises a potential revival.
There was excited talk in the corridors of power about the future of European defence, a pan-European electoral list (to make good use of the parliamentary seats left empty by departing British MEPs), and the establishment of an “EU social pillar” which would guarantee paternity leave and flexible working arrangements for parents.
Even the latest episode in the Greek debt saga (Greece needs fresh funds and the pressure is on to provide debt-relief) and rising antagonism with Hungary (Brussels launched an infringement probe into the higher education law while Orban lashed out in the European Parliament) and Turkey (the Council of Europe reinstated human rights monitoring, Erdogan engaged in another crackdown and the EU is mulling formally suspending accession talks) hardly dampened the mood.
Saturday’s gathering of EU27 leaders may be more upbeat than recent editions. The task at hand – agreeing the guidelines for the Brexit negotiations – is not one they will be relishing, but should be relatively uncontroversial. A meeting of EU27 Brexit sherpas on Monday was uneventful, with no major changes to the draft text which was approved by ministers on Thursday.
The leaked draft guidelines include the following principles: (1) “there can be no cherry-picking”; (2) “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”; (3) “there will be no separate negotiations with individual member states”; (4) “the main purpose of the negotiations will be to ensure the UK’s orderly withdrawal”; (5) “an agreement on a future relationship between the Union and the UK can only be finalised and concluded once the UK has become a third country”; (6) the EU “stand[s] ready to engage in preliminary and preparatory discussions to this end”; (7) any “transitional agreements must be clearly defined, limited in time and subject to effective enforcement mechanisms” (read ECJ); (8) “agreeing reciprocal guarantees to safeguard the status and rights of citizens... will be the first priority of the negotiations”; (9) “a single financial settlement... should ensure the Union and UK both respect the obligations undertaken before the date of withdrawal”; (10) “a flexible and imaginative solution” needs to be found for Ireland; (11) “no agreement between the EU and the UK may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without agreement between Spain and the UK”.
So far, the EU’s united front is holding up well. Have no “illusions”; the EU will protect its interests, Angela Merkel warned on Thursday. “We will conduct these negotiations in a fair and constructive way and we expect exactly the same from the British side.” If Macron wins next week, he will stand by that.