David Cameron does not like reshuffles. He has made it a central pillar of both his Conservative leadership and his premiership that he will conduct them sparingly and certainly far less frequently than Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. The scale of this reshuffle - less than a year out from the General Election - has therefore surprised many and prompts speculation that it is not about re-energising the government for one last big push but rather paving the way for the team that Cameron wants to have for his second term.
William Hague’s decision to stand aside is central to this. George Osborne is rumoured to be keen to take over as Foreign Secretary in 2015 to focus on renegotiation of Britain’s membership of the EU (the central political challenge for the next Conservative government) and the appointment of Phillip Hammond to the Foreign Office paves the way for a ‘job swap’ between the two men next year. Hammond was Osborne’s deputy in opposition for three years and probably would have been named Chief Secretary to the Treasury in 2010 if it was not for the need to give that post to a Lib Dem.
However, while the big moves suggest a Prime Minister confident of election victory, the voluntary departure of many mid-ranking ministers tells a different story. It is likely that many of these departing Ministers of State chose to go because they lack the energy and enthusiasm to serve on the frontbench in another coalition or in opposition.
‘Pale, Male and Stale’
As was widely touted in advance, the main losers in this reshuffle seem to be middle-aged white mean – or, as the press have unkindly dubbed them, the ‘pale, male and stale’. Many of those departing had served in the Major government, while Sir George Young was made a minister by Thatcher and Ken Clarke joined the frontbench under Ted Heath. Certainly ambitious members of the 2005 and 2010 intakes may well have felt that many of these individuals have ‘had their turn’ and need to make way for the next generation.
As expected, the big winners are the Tory women. Nicky Morgan leaves the Treasury job she was promoted to a only a couple of months ago to take over Education while Liz Truss, previously a junior minister at Education, takes over at Environment and Rural Affairs. Esther McVey remains Employment Minister but will now attend Cabinet. Baroness Stowell – best known for steering the Equal Marriage Bill through the Lords – joins the Cabinet as Leader of the Lords. Anna Soubry is promoted at the Ministry of Defence whilst junior whips Claire Perry and Amber Rudd, and backbenchers Priti Patel and Penny Mordaunt, all get junior ministerial jobs for the first time (at Transport, Energy and Climate Change, the Treasury, and Local Government respectively)
Right and Left, Modernisers and Traditionalists
Both Labour and the Lib Dems haven (predictably) rushed to condemn the reshuffle as a lurch to the right, with Labour calling it the ‘massacre of the moderates’. But reshuffles are never that simple and no one could accuse outgoing cabinet ministers Owen Paterson and David Jones of being moderates - both voted against gay marriage. Paterson is a particularly shocking departure. He was one of the standard bearers of the right of the party and his ousting may well take the shine off the promotion of other right-wingers. Leading right-winger Liam Fox, who resigned as Defence Secretary under a cloud in 2011, is believed to turned down the offer of a ministerial post at the Foreign Office looking after India, China and Latin America.
Even committed Cameroons paid a price in the reshuffle, most notably reforming Education Secretary Michael Gove who now assumes the lower-profile backroom post of Chief Whip. David Cameron tweeted that Gove will have “an enhanced role in campaigning and doing broadcast media interviews,” suggesting he will be a much more active and visible Chief Whip than is the norm. But there is no denying that this is a demotion in rank and salary, and will sting for a man who was passionate about his previous job. It is thought Number 10 was responding to polling that indicated that Mr Gove was increasingly a barrier to parents and teachers voting Conservative.
Presentation and Communication
Whilst much comment will be made about how this reshuffle impacts on the Conservative party’s visual image, the party’s ability to get its message across is also boosted by the changes. William Hague’s move to the often overlooked post as Leader of the House of Commons will mean that one of the party’s most gifted parliamentary speakers will now spend much more time at the despatch box, albeit as a valedictory tour before leaving the Commons. Without as much foreign travel Hague will also be able to take on a bigger campaigning role in the run up to the General Election. While the promotion of Michael Fallon to Defence Secretary may result in him being less available to appear on Newsnight to field tricky interviews, much of that work may now fall to Michael Gove.
Team Osborne and Team Cameron
Although this reshuffle is less about the advancement of allies of the Chancellor than previous changes, the so-called ‘Friends of George’ nonetheless continued their seemingly remorseless rise. Key allies Phillip Hammond and Nicky Morgan now take over at two of the most important government departments – the Foreign Office and Education - whilst former Osborne aide Matt Hancock gains the right to attend Cabinet and assume the challenging brief for business and energy vacated by Michael Fallon. Long serving junior treasury minister David Gauke moves up to replace Nicky Morgan as Financial Secretary (a job just outside Cabinet) and the ministerial team at the Treasury is further strengthened by the addition of the highly capable Priti Patel.
There were also some minor changes to the team at Number 10. John Hayes, the Prime Minister’s ‘Senior Parliamentary Adviser’ now combines this role with being Minister for State at the Department for Transport whilst Policy Chief Oliver Letwin remains a Cabinet Office minister but picks up the historic (and largely honorific) title of Lord Privy Seal, which confers the right to a seat in Cabinet. Letwin will be in charge of drafting the Conservative manifesto for 2015.
A warning to Europe…and farewell ECHR?
The reshuffle has undoubtedly strengthened the Government’s euro scepticism. New Foreign Secretary Phillip Hammond is on the record as saying that he would vote to leave the EU whilst new Defence Secretary Michael Fallon is far from a shrinking violet on the European issue. The retirement of Ken Clarke – the last of the heavy-hitting pro-Europeans – is also an historic moment. Those looking for a pro-European voice within Cabinet will have to look to the Liberal Democrats rather than the Conservatives.
Clarke’s retirement, coupled with the departure of Damian Green and Attorney General Dominic Grieve, paves the way for the Conservatives to take a much tougher stance on the European Convention on Human Rights as it removes those ministers known to oppose David Cameron’s plans to drop it from UK law. Theresa May promised Conservative Party Conference last year that the party’s next manifesto would include a pledge to scrap the convention.
The Prime Minister also used the reshuffle to announce that he would be proposing Lord Hill, previously the Leader in the Lords, as Britain’s next EU Commissioner. Although little known outside the Westminster bubble, Lord Hill was a special adviser to Ken Clarke in 1980s, political secretary to Prime Minister John Major in the early nineties and served as a junior minister at education under Michael Gove (2010-13) before his elevation to the top job in the Lords. Interestingly, three of the other candidates supposedly in the running for this post – David Willetts, Andrew Lansley and Owen Paterson – all lost their jobs in the reshuffle.
James Ford
Senior Advisor, PLMR
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