Health takes an early lead in the first few days of the campaign
Health was noticeably absent from Thursday night's leaders' non-debate debate.
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Although Miliband exceeded expectations, Labour advisers would have been disappointed about a missed opportunity to focus the first TV contest on the number one issue of their campaign. Cameron on the other hand would have been relieved the only two questions about the NHS came from the audience, not Paxman.
But, less than 24 hours later, the NHS was once again at the top of the agenda and all three parties returned to their comfort zones. Labour: protecting the NHS from 'privitisation'. Conservatives: a strong economy supporting a seven-day a week NHS. Liberal Democrats: delivering parity of esteem for mental health.
And yet it was Jeremy Hunt's interview to The Sunday Times which raised the crucial question of the election: will the parties commit to finding the missing £8 billion of NHS funding requested by Simon Stevens and, if so, how?
As Mike Birtwistle wrote recently, the Conservatives would be wise to make a big spending commitment on the NHS to neutralise Labour’s attack lines and return to questions about the economy.
However, the silence from the Tory press machine and lackluster response from cabinet ministers to Hunt's comments illustrate that senior Conservatives are still undecided about whether or not to guarantee funding for the Stevens plan. David Cameron told the Today programme yesterday: "We're confident we can achieve the [Simon] Stevens plan in full.” Not exactly a cast iron guarantee.
This indecision does give Ed Miliband the space to back Simon Stevens’ plan and seize the initiative in the early weeks of the short campaign. It also gives Labour the opportunity to address a potential pitfall in their own plans. On Friday Labour promised to give the NHS "£2.5 billion over and above any Tory plans". If the Conservatives do agree to fund the Five Year Forward View in full, will Labour be prepared to offer the extra £2.5 billion on top of the £8 billion requested by Simon Stevens?
If the Liberal Democrats are to be heard on health during the campaign they will need to be reactive to the dividing lines and dilemmas of the other parties. It is for this reason Nick Clegg has seized on the indecision of the two major parties by calling for Cameron and Miliband to 'come clean' on NHS funding. Tomorrow night's #massdebate gives the Deputy Prime Minister a platform to press this issue further.
No party can claim a decisive victory in the first few days of the campaign, but if this was a vote on issues then health has taken an early lead – and until both major parties square the circle on future funding this trend is likely to continue until polling day.
