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Into the unknown

If last week saw the Brussels public affairs community collectively sitting on the edge of its seat in anticipation of Jean-Claude Juncker announcing the composition of his College of Commissioners; this week has been overshadowed by the imminent result of the Scottish referendum. Pundits have fallen over themselves to predict the results of both and many have gotten egg on their faces as a result. The impact on the EU of a potential ‘’Yes vote’’ in Scotland would have been more profound and far reaching for the community than the worst predictions foretold for Team Juncker by even the most ardent Eurosceptics.

A trawl of this week’s news in Europe gives the impression that we are living through a time of flux. Institutionally speaking, member states seem to find it increasingly difficult to react to these challenges in a meaningful and united way. How best to react to the prospect of Scottish independence being a case in point. This week saw Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish Prime Minister, going out on a limb to rebuke the Scottish Nationalist case in the media across Europe placing articles proffering dire warnings for the future of the EU if a Yes vote in Scotland set a precedent for Catalan and Flemish nationalists. Not surprisingly, this unease filtered through to policymakers in Brussels.

The near abroad

This week saw the ratification of Ukraine’s association and free trade agreements with EU in the Strasbourg and Kiev parliaments. Yet the 14 month suspension in implementation of the agreement would suggest that something is amiss. The President of the Social Democrats, Gianni Pittella, certainly thought as much when he asserted in parliament that “this delay may be seen as a Russian victory in a Cold War climate”. What is clear is that EU member states are still not united on how best to respond to Vladimir Putin. The community’s lack of unity regarding future Energy Security policy for Europe perhaps being symptomatic.

The threat posed by ISIS to Europe received wide coverage too across Europe, adding momentum, if any were needed, for the EU to pursue a policy on Energy Security that is fit for purpose. The robust approach taken by the government in Kosovo this week who clamped down hard on radicals arresting 15 people, including clerics, allegedly involved in recruitment of volunteers for ISIS, served to underline the threat the organisation poses to Europe.

French and British navel gazing

Whilst events on the periphery of the Europe continue to play out, the attention of two of the EU’s main powerbrokers seemed firmly fixated on domestic concerns to the detriment of all else. France and UK continue to seem much distracted when viewed from Brussels or Berlin.

If the referendum in Scotland did not go its way, then Westminster could have gone into a tailspin of mutual recrimination at the end of this week. There was much speculation in the press as to the fate of David Cameron as Prime Minister if he presided over the death of the Union. 

In France, despite the Valls administration recently surviving a ‘’vote of confidence’’ motion, government seems to lurch from one crisis to the next and events seem to favour the rise of the National Front as the Socialist party’s natural constituency deserts it in droves. On the very day that Pierre Moscovici’s nomination as EU Commissioner designate for Economic and Financial Affairs was made public by Jean-Claude Juncker last week, in Paris the French Finance Minister announced France would again breach EU deficit limits next year.

What the future impact will be both domestically and in Brussels of Commissioner Moscovici having to potentially rebuke his own government in Paris for failing to get France’s deficit under control, remains to be seen. Marine Le Pen for one, must be relishing the prospect. If a reinvigourated David Cameron decides to press ahead with plans for an EU referendum, if his party wins the next General Election in UK, then Europe could be in for even more uncertain times ahead.