The snap election was supposed to revive the Liberal Democrats and see them fight back from their 2015 low. While the party gained MPs, including some of its old ‘big beasts’, it lost votes and suffered further setbacks in the number of seats they finished second in. This result was damning for Tim Farron who, instead of providing the centrist alternative to May and Corbyn some hoped for, only gained attention for his views on gay marriage and sin. A quick resignation followed, something he decided on early into the election campaign he now says.
Vince Cable is the only candidate that has announced he will run to replace Farron. With nominations closing on the 20th July and other serious contenders like Swinson, Lamb and Davey declining to run, it makes the 74-year-old former coalition Business Secretary almost certain to be the party’s next leader.
Cable’s appeal is his experience in government and his grasp of economics from his time in academia, business, and as shadow chancellor during the financial crash. Experiences like these make him a more authoritative voice in a period of political uncertainty. Many Lib Dems hope by putting Cable at the top of the ticket there will be added heft and weight, with the party taken more seriously in turn. When he says something, the media tends to listen.
However, his experience is also his weakness. At 74 most of the talk around his leadership is when he will leave to make way for a younger replacement. Jo Swinson is his obvious successor and members talk with either hope or insider knowledge that a deal has been done to replace Cable sooner rather than later. Either way, from day one many will view him as an interim leader and this may weaken his ability to shape the party.
The party looks set to double down on its Brexit policy. Cable has reaffirmed the need to give the British people the final say on the deal with a second referendum. While this didn’t strike a chord with people in the 2017 election, the party will hope that, in the long-term, people will have second thoughts. It’s a gamble that they desperately need to come good.
His time at the top of the party whilst part of the coalition also makes it harder for the party to move on and rebuild trust with the electorate with Cable in charge. As the minister responsible for tuition fees he is implicated in what’s still seen by many as a major policy betrayal. Questions have also been raised about his effectiveness at managing a large organisation, a strange question for a Cabinet Minister of five years to confront. Handling of the Rupert Murdoch BskyB deal and the Post Office sell off are marks that hang over him. Just as lingering doubts existed about Farron’s ability to run a party, the wobble about Cable’s capabilities have begun.
Yet the important question is: What will the Liberal Democrats look like under Cable?
The party looks set to double down on its Brexit policy. Cable has reaffirmed the need to give the British people the final say on the deal with a second referendum. While this didn’t strike a chord with people in the 2017 election, the party will hope that, in the long-term, people will have second thoughts. It’s a gamble that they desperately need to come good.
Where Cable has hinted at change is not making Brexit the only part of the top tier policy priorities. He has spoken about greater support for public services including the NHS, mental health, social care and schools. Addressing climate change has also got a mention. In the last election, the Liberal Democrats became increasingly irrelevant as the debate shifted from Brexit to public services. This is an attempt to avoid that happening again.
With 12 seats Vince Cable won’t be the next Prime Minister. But in a hung parliament, 12 is enough to be a useful partner to support or slow down the Government. While he seems cold to a formal deal and has always leaned towards Labour, there is scope for Liberal Democrat influence. Reports emerged of Gavin Barwell, May’s chief of staff, and his Lib Dem opposite number meeting. May has spoken of mental health policy as a priority for her and it is in areas like this where the Lib Dems may be receptive to supporting the government. There may be a path to case-by-case support for aspects of the Government’s agenda. There will be limited support for the Government’s Brexit priorities though. Expect the 12 MPs to consistently vote against a ‘hard’ Brexit and table amendments for a second vote.
Vince Cable is not so much a revolution for the Liberal Democrats as a slight adjustment to what has gone before. The party might be out of intensive care but there is a long way to go. Cable’s gamble is the Liberal Democrats will be proved to be on the right side of history and that only cosmetic changes are needed. In the short term though the best thing Cable and the Liberal Democrats have going for them is that there is a hung parliament and a government needing every vote it can get.