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The loss of the independence referendum in September has failed to dampen the desire of Yes supporters to seek another referendum.
Despite losing, the SNP now have over 90,000 members and opinion polls indicate that if the vote were to be rerun there would be a 52-48 majority in favour of separation.
At the SSE Hydro Nicola Sturgeon rally SNP MSP Sandra White predicted a further referendum in 2017. She was rebuffed by a First Minister’s spokesperson who said “Sandra White knows f***all and you can quote me on that”!
So why is the new First Minister being cautious?
Firstly, much of the economic case for a separate Scotland was predicated on the price of a barrel of oil staying north of $110. Since the referendum, the price has plummeted by 30% to less than $80 which would have left a significant gap in an independent Scotland’s finances.
Secondly the YES campaign made much of the potential for new offshore renewable energy technologies. In particular former First Minister Alex Salmond had placed immense faith in the Pelamis Wave Power project. Visiting PWP’s Edinburgh plant he claimed the new technology “will put Scotland at the forefront of Europe’s renewable revolution and create 16,000 green jobs in Scotland.” But just last week Pelamis went into administration.
And thirdly while YES campaigners have been exuberant in highlighting their success in securing a YES vote in parts of Labour’s heartlands they have not fully considered the implications of the NO campaign’s success in traditional SNP territory.
An astute politician, Nicola Sturgeon knows that there would be dangers in committing the party to a further referendum in either the 2015 or 2016 elections as these may be seen as de facto referendum campaigns. And opposition parties would campaign on the basis that the only way to ensure there was no further referendum would be to vote against the SNP. For many who regarded the 2014 campaign as bitterly divisive that might prove to be a compelling argument.
So despite the SNP’s current surge in the opinion polls a referendum rerun may be some way off.
This article was originally published on the Pagoda blog.