The screeching u-turn has become a traditional part of the fiscal event cycle in recent years. During the headiness of budget day, the Chancellor will stand at the despatch box, the master of his domain. MPs will hang on his every word. For the next 45 minutes the narrative belongs to him. Speaking with gusto and confidence, the Chancellor will announce reductions to disability allowances, National Insurance rises for the self-employed or cuts to tax credits. Big decisions being made in the national interest.
Then the trouble begins. The press gallery will notice a clanger from their perch before MPs in the trenches behind the Chancellor do. The leaked (positive) announcements will have been reported in the morning, leaving only the bad news.
Like the seven stages of grief, it begins with denial. Cabinet ministers will be sent out to tell the public the change is definitely happening. Ambitious backbench MPs will venture into TV studios to bravely defend their leadership’s position.
And then the relentless media and public reaction will force the inevitable u-turn, leaving everyone with egg on their face.
It has become such a frequent occurrence that it would be easy to underestimate the importance of the Conservatives’ partial u-turn on their social care proposals this week. But to be forced to rethink such a major manifesto pledge during a general election campaign is unprecedented.
Theresa May promised grown-up government and an end to David Cameron’s chumocracy system of rule, speaking in admiration of cabinet government and due process. She would do well to heed her own words.
It was Theresa May who decided to have an early election. Tories are running as “Theresa May’s team”, and the manifesto is Theresa May’s. The problem with this approach is that once things begin to go wrong it doesn’t take long to figure out who to blame.
A manifesto is not a papal bull, and May’s programme will need careful, even skilful, manoeuvring to be implemented if the Tories are returned to government.
Theresa May should learn from this experience, in a way she has chosen not to from the Spring Budget debacle.
May could ask her campaign strategist Lynton Crosby about the rise and fall of his native Australia’s former prime minister, Kevin Rudd. A more open and consultative approach would ingratiate May to her colleagues, and improve her job security. A leader who chooses to live by opinion polls dies by opinion polls.
It was said that Theresa May was safe in her position as leader because the Tories couldn’t change leader twice in a parliament. That clock will be reset after 8th June.