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It has largely been forgotten, in all the noise following the fall of the Public Health (Wales) Bill in March, that Public Services Minister Leighton Andrews directed his infamous “cheap date” jibe at Plaid Cymru for helping Labour to vote what is now the Local Government (Wales) Act 2015 through the Assembly. This Act is intended to be the first of two pieces of legislation, alongside the current Draft Local Government (Wales) Bill, that will pave the way for Labour’s reforms of local government, which is set to involve a reduction in the number of councils in Wales from 22 to 8 or 9 through mergers.

However, the fallout from the 'cheap date’ remark makes the future of the Draft Bill and Labour’s proposed reforms more precarious. No matter which party Labour approaches after the Assembly election (assuming that Labour does not achieve a majority), Labour politicians will be all too aware that backing for their plans for local government reform will not come cheaply this time.

The Welsh parties’ election manifestos also serve to underline how difficult it will be for Labour to strike an agreement with another party to push through its reforms.

Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats, considered to be the most likely partners for Labour in the next Welsh Government, have such different visions for local government reform that it appears highly improbable that Labour’s proposals will be able to pass as they currently stand. Plaid Cymru wants to establish up to six regional combined authorities, each led by a directly elected mayor, and a system of area councils with responsibility for planning and regeneration. The Liberal Democrats believe that the Local Government and Boundary Commission should be tasked with designing alternative proposals to restructure local authorities that have “demonstrable public consent.” Barely concealing their disapproval at Mr Andrews’ confrontational approach towards local government to date, they also make a commitment to “repeal powers that allow Ministers to merge councils by decree.”

It is therefore not unduly surprising that Labour’s own manifesto was vague on this subject, simply pledging that a Welsh Labour Government would create “stronger and larger” local authorities and “stronger” town and community councils. This strongly suggests that Labour is leaving the door open for significant changes to be negotiated in its local government reform package after the election. Given that the Conservatives and UKIP also stated their opposition to local authority mergers without explicit public approval in their election manifestos, Labour must gain the support of either Plaid Cymru or the Liberal Democrats if it is to enact reforms to Wales’ local government structure.

With the added complication of local government elections in Wales on the horizon in May 2017, Labour’s date with destiny on local government reform is looming. Knowing that a summary of responses to the Draft Local Government (Wales) Bill consultation will be published soon after the Assembly election, Labour must decide whether to agree to substantial changes to its own proposals for the sake of passing the legislation quickly, or whether local government reform should be shelved for at least another year. This decision will be one of Labour’s first major challenges in the next Welsh Government.