With the voter registration closing and many people across the country receiving their postal votes, I have always thought this week to be the most important week of an election campaign. It has been an eventful few days and here I outline some of things that struck me at this crucial time.
The beginning of the week was dominated by discussion about the role of the SNP in Government – stimulated in part by the SNP manifesto launch, but it continued with the Conservatives’ stoking the fire of this story with regular comment by David Cameron and an appearance by former Prime Minister, John Major, who warned of the SNP blackmailing a future Labour Government. There is no doubt that this issue is good for the Conservatives as it plays on the electorate’s fears of parliament being biased in favour of the Scots and the English somehow losing out on the deal to their northern neighbours.
Whilst this issue will undoubtedly play well on the doorstep in the election the polls suggest that it has not been the game changer that the Conservatives were hoping for, as the average across all polls remains remarkably stable. It is worth having a reality check on the SNP. Even with 50 seats the SNP would still be a minority party in any Government and having ruled out doing anything to support the Conservatives in Government there is limited room for them to manoeuvre. Bringing down a Labour Government and letting in the Conservatives would destroy the SNP’s credibility in Scotland, which would impact how they perform in both a second General Election and also the Scottish Parliament elections in 12 months’ time.
This week saw the start of Milifandom, for those of a more mature disposition - online support by teenage girls for the Labour Party Leader. Whilst in itself this will not massively impact the voting – as most of his ‘fan base’ will not be able to vote - it is one of the factors undermining the Conservatives’ attack on the Labour Leader.
Ed Miliband has consistently outperformed expectations and his position has been reinforced by among other things a bizarre attack on him by the Daily Mail, for seemingly dating other professional and intelligent women before he got married. This attack reminded me very much of the personal attack on David Cameron in 2010 by Labour, focusing around ‘taking us back to the eighties’, which also backfired badly and reinforced David Cameron’s image. More and more people are discussing a Miliband as Prime Minister and this negative campaigning now seems to only appeal to core Conservative voters not those who are undecided.
Finally one factor that is only just being realised by the national media is the impact of the number of activists on the ground. Whilst the Conservatives are clearly better funded and better supported by the press, even Lord Ashcroft’s polling suggests that in the key marginal seats Labour are outperforming their rivals. This could be a major factor in swinging a dozen or so seats from blue and yellow to red in the closing weeks of the campaign and in such a tight election may make all the difference.
So who will win? Who knows, but for once the campaign may well make all the difference.