Housing is firmly back at the top of the political agenda forced by a national picture which is somewhat bleak - a housing supply crisis engulfs the UK (particularly London and the Home Counties) and politicians from across the two main political parties have been accused of lacking the nerve to truly address the situation. Whilst the Tories have been celebrated as the “property friendly” party, Mr Miliband’s late election promise to allow people who have lived in an area for over three years to have the “first call” on new homes ahead of overseas buyers or buy to let buyers, wiped nearly £300 million off the value of Britain’s biggest housebuilders.
In the run-up to the General Election on Thursday, many in the property industry (who remain frustrated with cumbersome planning policy), are searching for which party will deal with the supply crisis that has sent prices rocketing to levels beyond the means of many prospective buyers.
In terms of numbers, the Conservatives have promised to build 200,000 starter homes for first-time buyers, more garden cities and a further 400,000 new units from brownfield land by 2020. Labour is also offering garden cities as part of the solution and has pledged to build 200,000 homes each year. The Liberal Democrats want to build 300,000 new homes a year (again citing garden cities as the solution), UKIP is proposing investment to build on brownfield as the solution and the Green Party wants to build 500,000 social rented units.
The Chancellor, George Osborne, has been consistently plugging the Conservatives as the party that is on the side of first time buyers, as is Labour. So, back to the question in hand, which party’s housing and planning pledges are more likely to see Britain building again, and soon?
With a range of pledges from both main parties, it is clear that the two most noticeable similarities in the main parties housing pledges is their commitment to assisting first-time buyers and to devolve more power to local communities in respect of the planning process. The latter, very relevant to our property clients, emphasises the need for them to treat the communications challenges as unique on every individual project and never generalise with politics.
What is also clear is that if either is elected with a large enough majority to take some sort of power after the election, the way they intend to deal with the housing crisis is very similar. Both parties have their own plans to increase the supply of development land - the Conservatives have focused on building on brownfield land and protecting the Green Belt, meanwhile Labour plans to take a tougher stance on developers by discouraging ‘land banking’ and increasing competition. Where the parties diverge is on tenure; Cameron would oversee an extension of Right to Buy (a key pledge that propelled Mrs Thatcher into Downing Street in 1979) and Miliband would implement a new era of rent controls. Although we may see tweaks to planning policy, it does appear that it will face a period of relative stability.
These are ambitious plans by both parties to deliver housing numbers. Whilst many might argue that the very scale of the challenge requires ambitious plans, others who are more cynical may maintain that none of our politicians have the political appetite to stand by the difficult decisions needed to tackle the housing crisis.
With limited differences between the individual manifestos, the most significant impact for the property sector comes from the mechanics of the election itself. If the electorate fails to give any single party an overall majority on Thursday, then economic and political life could hit some major pause buttons. Decisions could be delayed due to protracted coalition discussions, minority government votes, a snap referendum on EU membership (a clear condition of UKIP support for a minority government), or a UK government being propped up by a Scottish Nationalist junior partner, all causing prolonged uncertainty.
It is impossible to predict the impact of such uncertainty, or even if we will avoid being plunged into a second general election this year, but a period of nervousness in the housing market, decision-making and the wider economic conditions could well be the legacy of the 2015 General Election.