While there is still work to be done for David Cameron to secure a “deal” with the European Union, the fight to keep the UK in the EU has already begun in earnest.
The most likely date for the referendum is 23rd June, despite the protestations of the First Ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, that campaigning will clash with the various elections taking place there on 5th May.
It also allows Mr Cameron the opportunity to take advantage of the disarray there is in the ‘Out’ campaign, with two organisations fighting to become the lead organisation.
On Tuesday the outline of a long-awaited reform deal Mr Cameron said would deliver the “substantial change” he wants for the UK’s relationship with the bloc, was released.
The British prime minister claimed he had secured a breakthrough, with the power to restrict benefits for new migrant workers for up to four years. This is a temporary mechanism however, and the outline leaves open the question when the restriction must end.
The paper outlining the agreement – covering migration, a greater role for national parliaments in decision-making, protections for the City of London, sovereignty and competitiveness – forms the basis for the British deal the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, hopes to seal at a Brussels summit on February 18-19.
The machinations of the fine print of such an agreement when it comes to the referendum campaign itself will be largely a side-issue. Such a campaign will be fought on the principles of whether the UK is better off with the peace, stability and prosperity provided by the European Union, or whether our membership is impacting on the sovereignty of the UK, especially on the issue of the ability to control borders and immigration.
There is also the added ‘Scottish’ dimension, with the potential prospect of another independence referendum should the UK as a whole vote to leave the EU, but Scotland vote to remain in (23rd June incidentally also marks the anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn).
Expect these arguments to be played out in the weeks and months ahead.