Brexit. In the UK the debate spans immigration, sovereignty, democracy, trade barriers, tariffs, subsidies and much, much more. Britain is publicly addressing complicated issues of global trade, competition and market access – and we’re turning out to town hall meetings to join the debate.
Our globally-minded small island likes to think that it has and always will have a seat at the top table as far as global policy-making is concerned. Yet turning our backs on the world’s second largest trading block is a real possibility in a referendum that will likely change Europe forever – whatever the outcome.
Our partners in the EU are anxious. Our potential exit is their future in the balance. So says a sample of members of the Interel Global Partnership who shared their thoughts on local reactions to the noise and fury over the English channel.
One key theme emerged strongly. We may think that our European partners would be keen to see us gone. It’s simply not true. Our survey demonstrated irrefutably that our partners want us to stay. Not because they agree with or approve of our sometimes disruptive negotiating tactics. Nor because they are anglophiles at heart. They want the UK to stay because all over Europe, people are raising questions about the future of the EU itself. Nationalist movements are growing in importance in countries which are facing economic stagnation or decline and at the same time, handling influxes of displaced people.
The EU seems distant. All over Europe, people want solutions and accountability, and they want it closer to home.
Almost all our partners around Europe cited worries about local ‘leave’ movements, Plexits, Crexits, Swexits and in some countries, they’re making their voices heard. The Netherlands recently voted down a treaty on future relations with the Ukraine which would have been uncontroversial even 5 years ago.
Many, surprisingly, talked of the ‘loss of an ally’ at the EU negotiating table, or talked of the need for the UK as a strong partner in the fight for a less bureaucratic, more accountable and reformed EU structure.
View the thoughts of Interel Partners around Europe by visiting our interactive map and downloading the Report.
Example views
Germany
The German government presents itself as relaxed on Brexit, stressing that with the compromise achieved, Cameron got everything he wanted. No room for renegotiations. Digging deeper and taking the recent lack of solidarity within the EU into consideration, the wording becomes a lot sharper.
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier says: “We cannot allow playing with fire when it comes to the foundations of the European idea …. What is important is that we make progress on the key issues and challenges facing the European Union. We have to see ourselves in Europe as a 28‑member team that plays together. And it is of no relevance whatsoever whether we come from larger or smaller Member States. All members play their part. Without the United Kingdom, we would be missing a strong player. I don’t like the thought of that. The EU would be poorer, weaker and less open‑minded. This is why we are working on a European compromise – one that does not call the European treaties into question.”
France
Brexit is much debated in France. The French government criticizes the British vision of a “Europe à la carte”, yet it is an important partner that France wants to keep. A British withdrawal would be a tremendous threat for France on 3 different fronts:
- It would call into question Franco-English leadership on “L’Europe de la défense”. In December 2010, the two countries signed a comprehensive defence agreement, the Lancaster House treaties. The UK is the fifth biggest military spender and the second largest source of development funding at $18bn per year, behind only the US. Moreover, France regularly stresses the need to link the development of the EU with that of a common defence policy;
- It could end with the revoking of the Schengen Agreement. This would have consequences for tourism. According to a recent study by France Stratégie, the impact on tourism would trigger losses of up to €2 billion per year in the short term;
- France is also aware that losing Britain means losing a major financial market place, The City. London is an international financial center. There is a risk that some businesses headquartered in London may leave Europe altogether. It would be a big loss for France and the rest of the EU.
In France, the greatest sympathy for the Brexit comes from the far-right Front National. Marine Le Pen, its leader, is hoping that France might hold a similar referendum.
The Netherlands
The Netherlands government, especially in its role as president of the EU during the British referendum on June 23, has shown serious concern about the possibility of a Brexit.
The United Kingdom is the second largest import and export partner of the Dutch, and the renewed introduction of borders and possible tariffs would hurt the economy of the country severely.
The political parties are also looking at the referendum as either an example for a referendum in the Netherlands on the membership of the EU, or as a possible start of a chain reaction to rupture the Union all together. The Dutch referendum on the association treaty with Ukraine on April 4th is seen as a first step in the direction of a possible Dutch referendum on the membership of the EU.