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It is said that a week is a long time in politics. Therefore the two years and 17 weeks since the EU referendum could reasonably be considered a really, really. really long time. So it is rather embarrassing that in that time the government has arrived at a position where no two stakeholder groups are behind the same set of proposals and even the prime minister can appear to disagree with herself from one day to the next.

Both parties had hoped to have the entire withdrawal agreement agreed, in principle, in time for the European Council summit on Wednesday last week. From there they would be able to call, with confidence, a special summit in November to finalise the deal and set out a statement for the future relationship. Given the slow rate of progress, there was also speculation that some EU leaders were considering turning the mooted November summit into a no-deal planning session instead but there has been no word on this so far.

The run-up

Last weekend, Brexit secretary Dominic Raab and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier met for more than an hour, with Raab giving it one last shot to unstick the Irish border / backstop question - to no avail.

Former Brexit secretary David Davis by contrast spent his weekend urging ministers to rebel against Theresa May's plan for Brexit.

On Monday last week, the PM addressed the House of Commons ahead of the summit. Her aim was to reassure her MPs, the DUP and possibly some on the Labour benches that her plan was still feasible before heading off once again to sell it to the EU27.

As she opened, she told the house, "We are entering the final stages of these negotiations" and then later, having laid out the progress to date, commented understatedly, "but Mr Speaker, two problems remain". These phrases sparked raucous laughter from the opposition benches but it seems that the process has been so unrelentingly farcical for months that the government benches have become immune to feelings of embarrassment in the chamber.

On the same day, a group of Brexit-supporting ministers met, apparently over pizza, to discuss the way forward. There were also multiple reports of various cabinet members being ready to resign if it became clear the PM was not going to change course.

On Tuesday, the crunch cabinet meeting came... and went. Phantom resignations have thus far proved to be exactly that. There is of course still plenty of time for resignation letters even if there is very little time for negotiations with the EU. Evidently the cabinet does not believe the PM has made her final decision despite her public statements to the contrary.

The backstop sticking point

The backstop is a safety net that will apply to the Irish border if a wider deal or technological solution cannot keep it 'soft' when the UK leaves the customs union.

Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, speaking for the EU27, insists that there should be a backstop arrangement whereby the UK remains inside the customs union until arrangements can be agreed that negate the need for a hard border in Northern Ireland. Barnier also believes that this backstop should be time-limited and that at a certain point, if no other deal is reached, then Northern Ireland should remain a part of the customs union while the rest of the UK leaves, creating a customs border down the Irish sea.

The UK goverment is unsurprisingly not keen on this idea and is arguing to simply keep the whole of the UK in the EU customs union for a limited period until a trade deal can be done.

While the backstop debate dominated headlines this week, the DUP appeared keen to remind number ten that despite being stuffed with gold after the 2017 general election their mouths were still capable of making considerable noise.

The DUP warned that their ten MPs are prepared to "paralyse" her domestic agenda if the PM agrees to something that in their eyes undermines Northern Ireland's constitutional position within the UK.

On Newsnight, the DUP's deputy leader Nigel Dodds said his party would not trigger another general election and "allow Jeremy Corbyn into No ten". He did however restate his party's "blood red" line: no special arrangements for Northern Ireland which would result in it alone remaining aligned to EU rules or having to impose extra regulatory checks.

And just for good measure, in the midst of the parliamentary bullying scandal it has been called into question whether the speaker will remain in his seat to see through the Brexit process. So just as all looked like it might already be as bad as it can get, the government and parliament has been given a timely reminder that there is always more that could go wrong.

The meeting

The European Council meeting also came. and went. At the end of it the only positive outcome to be drawn from it was that the PM eventually told the press that she would be open to extending the transition period by a 'matter of months' to help break the impasse.

The transition period is currently supposed to end in December 2020 and many Brexiteers would see this as nothing more than adding insult to injury, potentially costing the UK billions extra to cover dues owed to Brussels for the additional time spent in the custom union and single market. The PM believes however that it will help address the Irish border problem and allow more time to secure a trade deal, the latter of which is at least true.

The aftermath

If agreement on UK withdrawal plans can be reached, then parties will turn their attention to drafting the political declaration on the future relationship. EU leaders are still expected to call another summit in mid-November, at which point the withdrawal deal and the framework of future co-operation could be approved.

If the November summit doesn't happen or fails to produce the desired result then the backstop summit to the backstop summit would be the European Council meeting on 13 and 14 December.

A December date would of course leave very little time to get the deal approved by the UK and EU Parliaments in time for the 29 March Article 50 deadline.

Despite several 'inside sources' from across the different political camps suggesting no-deal was becoming inevitable earlier in the week, Donald Tusk came out on Thursday to express some optimism that there was the will and determination on both sides to reach an agreement and if adequate progress is made in talks he will call a November summit. Head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker also came out to say his "working assumption is not that we will have a no-deal".

Looking ahead to the next few weeks, the problem for May is that she has made mutually exclusive promises to multiple sides of her party and the country. Either the Brexiteers, unionists and 'moderates' get what they want respectively or they will revolt respectively.

The issue cannot be fudged forever, one faction has to lose and when they do all signs are they will attempt to topple or cripple the government.


Sarah Jones, managing director, public affairs practice