Every day during the campaign I have debated the polls with my colleague and former William Hague Special Adviser, Chris White. Both of us try to be objective but both of us are also riding a rollercoaster of emotions on behalf of our respective parties as the polls move about so widely. Yesterday (Thursday 30), Ipsos Mori gives the Conservatives a 5pt lead, ComRes publishes a poll saying it is neck and neck, with Labour gaining by 3pts and YouGov publish a poll of marginals that shows Labour 3 pts ahead.
Whilst the outcome in England and Wales remains close, what is clear is that another election is taking place in Scotland. This is also amply exemplified by editorial line of the Sun newspaper which supports the Conservative and Unionist Party, whilst its sister paper in Scotland supports the nationalist SNP. The latest Scottish polls point to an overwhelming victory for the Scottish Nationalist Party, with the potential that all 59 Scottish seats will return SNP MPs to Westminster.
Whatever anyone says, a block of over 50 MPs in Parliament will mean the SNP becomes a Westminster player for perhaps the first time since they voted with the Conservatives to bring down a Labour Government in 1979. They cannot be ignored and perhaps the biggest questions of the election will be the implications for the UK’s future in Europe, and what role a pro-European nationalist party will have in determining whether the next Government is led by Ed Miliband or David Cameron.
My belief is that one of the legacies of this election will be a move towards a more federal Britain, as more and more issues are devolved downwards to England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Westminster could then over time take a more federal role looking at defence, foreign affairs, major energy policy and infrastructure decisions, climate change, international development, counter terrorism and some of the more strategic economic decisions.
I don’t believe this will happen overnight, but the devolution of more power to Manchester, recently coupled with the existing devolution to Scotland, sets a strong precedent. As power continues to ebb away from Westminster it will be difficult to stem the tide. This may have significant implications for the future of business in the UK along with the different views on Europe of a left-led, pro-European administration to a more right-leaning, Eurosceptic one.
So who will win?
It’s a big question and we are undeniably seeing a movement to the Conservatives and the status quo in England, if not in the rest of the country. But has too much been left too late for David Cameron to get the numbers he needs to form a Government? I believe we will have Ed Miliband as prime minister after the next election - just. (My colleague Chris disagrees and thinks that the Conservatives are more likely to be ahead, just.)