The French have chosen who they will decide between in the upcoming presidential run off. The last few weeks have caused many a blood pressure to rise with four vastly different candidates having a chance at winning, but now it is clear that Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron will go tête-à-tête in two week’s time.
The winner, regardless of who emerges victorious, will send waves across Europe. Le Pen’s views on the EU are well known but, the surge of Emmanuel Macron has left many questions regarding Brexit.
Looking at Macron’s policy, he is pro-EU, pro-Euro and supports the European project. Will this translate into actions meant to stymie the UK or will his policies help Theresa May achieve her Brexit goals? Mr Macron’s election manifesto clearly outlines that he believes Brexit is a bad idea, referring to it as a ‘crime’ and he has stood up numerous times to defend the EU’s position on the issue.
While he may be upset that the UK wants to leave (no one likes being dumped), silver linings are abound for the UK.
First, the numerous populist defeats across the EU, including in Austria, the Netherlands, and now the first round of the French election will work to quell the impending fear of a Brexit contagion spreading across the continent. This will likely leave the EU in less of a corner than previously thought.
Second, Macron and May have similar goals when it comes to leaving the EU: both favour a harder Brexit. In her Lancaster House speech, the Prime Minster was clear that the UK would be leaving the single market, and phasing out free movement of people. Mr Macron has stated that he will not advocate for any less than the UK entirely out of the EU, and does not want a ‘tailormade approach’.
The French first-round results may have resulted in trepidatious sighs of relief, but there is no escaping the fact that anti-EU candidates on the right and left of the political spectrum gained nearly 40% of the vote. These numbers have been raising in France, and across Europe, and despite the populist losses in recent elections, France will not want to embolden this cohort and risk growing their ranks by allowing anything but a hard Brexit for the UK.
My take is that this puts the UK and the EU in better, clearer, positions to start the negotiations, but as the Prime Minister and the presidential frontrunner share the same, overarching goals, there may be some light at the end of the Chunnel (which is, hopefully, not a train).