The arrival of 2018 in Welsh politics does not mean 2017 has departed. For a variety of reasons, the present is very much shaped by the past. The most obvious example of this is that Brexit has already manifest itself as – along with austerity – the backdrop and refrain of exchanges in the Assembly last week. The theme tune of the past eighteen months remains unchanged, and is unlikely to be altered any time soon. For Cardiff read London, read Edinburgh, read Belfast. For 2018, read 2017.
Decisions which were deferred last year are also coming under increasing pressure for an answer. In recent weeks the proposal for a tidal lagoon in Swansea has been put into a particular spotlight as it has emerged the Welsh Government has offered an undisclosed sum to help get the project off the ground and push the UK Government into finally giving the project a thumbs up or a thumbs down. It seems the old daggers drawn attitude of the two governments is an overhang from last year too…
As is the report of the McAllister expert panel into the electoral arrangements of the National Assembly. This radical report has called for an expansion of the size of the Assembly and the development of single multi-member constituencies returning a number of AMs through a proportional system. Published in December, this weighty and well-reasoned tome has had little proper response from the political parties in Wales and, especially in the context of Labour, the response was more deferral than acceptance. Expect this one to slow burn throughout the whole of 2018.
We also have been contemplating the immediate ramifications of Nathan Gill’s decision to vacate the Assembly. Gill, the former leader of UKIP in Wales, has given up his Assembly seat after eighteen months in order to focus his time on the European Parliament, where he has also been a member for some years. His North Wales regional seat was taken up by Mandy Jones AM, who was originally welcomed into the UKIP group but now has had the whip withdrawn because she insisted on keeping Gill’s staff. Months of division, acrimony and antagonism does not seem to have been fixed in any way and once more we have a situation where UKIP is not only the smallest but the most fractious “group” in the Assembly.
A quicker resolution will undoubtedly be had to the Assembly vacancy in Alyn & Deeside, with a by-election scheduled for Tuesday 6 February. Odds on favourite 23-year old Jack Sargeant looks pretty certain to be elected in place of his late father, Carl Sargeant, whose suicide in November continues to be a defining moment in current politics. While the by-election may settle the representation issue, it will undoubtedly also increase the pressure on First Minister Carwyn Jones in Cardiff. With a coroner’s inquest and three inquiries due to report this year – namely into alleged bullying in 2014, the First Minister’s handling of Carl’s dismissal, and the more imminent one into whether reshuffle details were leaked – this will remain a disturbing and defining narrative. The biggest Welsh political shadow from 2017 hanging over 2018 is undoubtedly the shadow of death.