The Stormont House Agreement (December 2014) seemed to herald a new dawn for devolution in Northern Ireland. After the disappointment of the failed Haass talks many people hoped that this particular agreement was a roadmap for political progress. Following the agreement, Sinn Féin and the DUP seemed to enjoy a non-aggression pact but this was brought to quite a spectacular end in March of this year when Sinn Féin decided to withdraw support for the Welfare Reform Bill.
Despite initially agreeing to the changes to the welfare reform system, Sinn Féin argued that Executive-funded top-up measures to support claimants were not as comprehensive as they had envisaged. It seems that the devil really was in the detail.
This week a leaked document laid bare the fears of Finance Minister Arlene Foster MLA. In the document she outlines the financial crisis facing the Stormont Executive. The impasse over welfare reform could, according to Minister Foster, mean a senior civil servant would be forced to introduce cuts across all government departments. In real terms the Department of Health would lose £280m and the Department of Education would face cuts of £114m from this year’s budget.
The document, which was circulated to Minister Fosters’ executive colleagues, put the overall shortfall at a staggering £2.8bn. In cash terms this would mean slashing the budget by about 20%, which would have a huge impact on public services. This is undoubtedly a worst-case scenario but it will raise serious alarm bells. It is also fair to say that political parties here will be under excruciating pressure to reach a deal ahead of the proposed vote on welfare reform next week.
That pressure is already beginning to show with the Minister for Regional Development, Danny Kennedy saying he would have to reflect on his position if the impasse over welfare reform is not resolved by next Tuesday.
The Minister for Social Development Minister Mervyn Storey will bring the Welfare Reform Bill back to the Assembly next Tuesday, alongside a new implementation plan, which according to First Minister Peter Robinson could be tweaked by the other parties. Sinn Féin are said to be considering using a petition of concern to block the Bill and have called for the support of other parties including the SDLP. Peter Robinson has warned that if the Bill is not passed he will formally ask Theresa Villiers to take back welfare powers or to legislate. If she refuses to take back welfare powers then it is possible the institutions would collapse entirely.
The main parties held talks with Theresa Villiers on Wednesday and Thursday but with no sign of any ‘white smoke’ the institutions are now in danger of total collapse. It is worth noting that during some of the darkest days of the past and in negotiations over the past 15 years or so, the parties have often confounded the critics. Sinn Féin and the DUP will have to be at their most creative if they are to truly get to grips with the thorny issue of welfare reform and the challenges of the budget. Next week is crunch time at the Assembly.