While the rest of the UK looks ahead to the Brexit negotiations in March, Northern Ireland is facing yet another election - just nine months after the last outing to the polls. This snap election comes not after the usual calling cards of a political crisis (constitutional, religious or violence) but a financial and governance one.
Former First Minister DUP MLA Arlene Foster is accused of mishandling a major government scheme while she was an executive minister. The Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme incentivised businesses to take up sustainable wood pellet boilers for heating systems.
However, unlike a near identical scheme in England, there were no caps on tariffs meaning as the cost of the fuel went down, many profited (described this week as “super normal profits” by current Economy Minister Simon Hamilton) from the scheme; while calculations vary, the Executive is exposed for the guts of half a billion pounds over the lifetime of the scheme.
Sinn Féin, who shared the joint office of First Minister, escalated the pressure on Arlene Foster to resign however Foster was firm she was going nowhere and her party remained loyal to her as leader. As grassroots pressure mounted on Sinn Féin, they pulled the plug on the Assembly as deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness resigned on 9 January, leading to the announcement from Secretary of State James Brokenshire for a fresh election to take place on 2 March.
This Assembly election will bring into force new legislation reducing the number of MLAs from 108 to 90 – five seats instead of six in each of the 18 constituencies will be the new reality. Such a development meets the 2021 deadline for that reduction, settled in the Stormont House/Fresh Start Agreements, much sooner than expected.
With just over a week until the Assembly is dissolved on Thursday 26th January, we will continue to see a flurry of announcements and consultations from government departments and some Assembly business continuing, while the outgoing MLAs have already started campaigning over the weekend on what many are seeing as a referendum on the RHI issue.
The Fresh Start Executive signalled the formal beginning of Opposition-style politics in post-Good Friday Agreement Northern Ireland. Whilst the UUP and SDLP struggled to hit the ground running in the early months, they have stepped up as agitators in the RHI debacle.
However, it has been Sinn Féin setting the terms of the debate with the DUP on the back foot. For Sinn Féin this is an election on principle as well as competence and it returns to unresolved grievances stemming from the Good Friday Agreement; including support for the Irish Language, equality and dealing with the legacy of the past; issues Sinn Féin will be motivating their voters to turn out on.
The question is whether the new fight for five seat constituencies helps the larger parties to the detriment of the smaller parties and independents. 30 MLAs for the blocking the Petition of Concern mechanism remains so the DUP will be fighting to ensure they maintain the magic number.
Sinn Féin believes they can only strengthen their position. While the topping of the poll is high on their agenda, it would take something of an electoral revolt to see the party assume the mantle of First Minister. While we could also see a weakened SDLP, given how the numbers fell last time, it’s the Ulster Unionist Party that is particularly vulnerable, scrapping in as they did on the final count in many constituencies. While the further fragmentation of unionism is a real prospect, the DUP will be doing everything in their power to ensure that Arlene remains the leader of Unionism.
The ranks of the Sinn Féin leadership will see some changes due to Martin McGuiness’s recent ill-health with possible replacements including outgoing Health Minister Michelle O’Neill or south Armagh former MP Connor Murphy. It is still uncertain whether McGuinness will stand again in the election or retire altogether from frontline politics.
Some have even speculated Gerry Adams might return to politics here, which would give party deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald the opportunity to test the water as possible future leader of the party.
What isn’t clear at this stage is whether there will be appetite for talks the other side of an election. Sinn Féin has made it clear that they want change and will not return to the politics of before. So with uncertainty about whether we will have a functioning Assembly and Executive by the end of March, Secretary of State James Brokenshire may be left to negotiate Northern Ireland’s position in regards to Brexit.
Perhaps we will see an appetite for a new form of government, in the form of re-worked devolved institutions. Failing agreement between DUP and Sinn Féin, the Secretary of State can call for a second election or will he opt for a form of direct rule be re-introduced, including the possibility of a stronger input by the Republic of Ireland?
Regardless of what happens over the coming weeks and months, policy responsibilities will be allocated to someone; therefore engagement and relationship building are essential whatever hand we are dealt.