The election of Jean-Claude Juncker as Commission President has naturally grabbed all the headlines but public affairs consultants will be just as interested in the selection of Commissioners. Following the Member States political maneuvers and knowing the front runners is the earliest possible indication of what their clients can expect over the next five years. But saying this is easy. Actually doing it is a whole different ball game with a torrent of rumours to wade through and sudden changes in direction which turn your predictions upside down. This week has been no exception.
Czechs officially nominate first female candidate
Member states have until the end of July to select a candidate and this week the Czech Republic chose minister for local development Vera Jourova. The first official female nomination comes after repeated calls from Juncker and several current female Commissioners to nominate female candidates, although this is so far falling on deaf ears with 12 men officially nominated. Jourova looks set for the regional policy post although the Parliament could oppose her based on her past employment as a public affairs consultant. It makes you wonder how the UK’s already maligned nominee Jonathan Hill will fair.
Divisions over the top posts
As public affairs consultants we can guess all we want and the member states can have their candidate in mind, but sudden changes in political context can completely alter the playing field. The flight MH17 disaster in Ukraine on 17th July is one such example and could spell the end of Italian Federica Mogherini’s bid to be the next high representative for foreign and security policy. After Eastern European countries delayed Mogherini’s appointment at the European Council Summit on 16-17 July citing her ties with Russia as justification, the MH17 disaster could make her selection politically impossible.
Other names are now in the mix such as Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, Mogherini’s predecessor Emma Bonino, Sweden’s Carl Bildt and the Netherlands’ Frans Timmermans. However, with the grand coalition carving up the EU top jobs amongst themselves, there is an understanding that Ashton’s replacement will hail from the center-left and Herman Van Rompuy’s from the centre-right.
Other coveted positions have been in the limelight particularly the Economic and Monetary Affairs position. French President Francoise Hollande met with Juncker on Thursday to press the case for Pierre Moscovici. But this is a tough pitch as Germany has already publicly questioned the suitability of a French candidate given the country’s difficulty in cutting its deficit and Juncker is likely to prefer a female French candidate, perhaps ex-MEP and former minister of European affairs Élisabeth Guigou. France’s attention could now turn towards Internal Market, Competition or Trade although rumours indicate that Germany want the latter, a popular position given the current TTIP negotiations. Not having nominated anyone as High Representative or European Council President, Merkel is in a good position to secure an influential post for current Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger.
Time is running out
The failure to agree on the High Representative at last week’s EU Summit could ultimately delay the start of the new Commission. It is hoped an agreement on a personnel package can be found at the upcoming EU Summit on 30 August but time is running out and Juncker will be hoping for swift Parliament hearings due in September which is not guaranteed.
However nothing is certain and the political winds could change direction again. The backroom deals, misdirection, and unpredictability are everything you could want in a political race which further enlargement has made ever more complicated in relation to portfolios. But there is also the continuing perception especially in the large member states that national political advancement is preferable to a role in Brussels which is regrettable given the increased powers the EU institutions exercise.