Sophie Taylor, senior associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Have you ever had a break-up so messy you launched your own political party? The latest in Elon Musk and Donald Trump’s split is the launch of the Tesla billionaire’s new ‘America Party’, which he announced over Independence Day weekend - but not before consulting his X followers, of course.
Speaking of fractures, Reform UK had a mixed weekend. The party should’ve been celebrating its latest polling success (more on which below) but its light was somewhat dimmed as The Sunday Times revealed Reform MP James McMurdocktook £70,000 in Covid bounce back loans for two companies (£) which may not have been eligible. In response, McMurdock has given up the party whip.
Tensions also stretched to Westminster/Holyrood relations as the UK health secretary Wes Streeting described the first minister as an “analogue politician in a digital age” (£). Streeting condemned Scotland’s “second-rate” NHS app and became the first senior Westminster figure to publicly criticise Scotland’s health service.
Looking ahead, Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to London begins tomorrow. The first part of the French president’s trip will be focused on royal events, before he attends an Anglo-French summit with Keir Starmer. A deal is expected to be signed between the two nations on Thursday, under which France will accept the return of migrants for the first time.
Wednesday represents the deadline set by Donald Trump to introduce his reciprocal tariffs. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether the US president will follow through on these, but we do know that time has run out on a US-EU trade deal being struck. The president has warned any country embracing “anti-American policies” of the BRICS group will face an extra 10% tariff (£).
Before then, Tuesday will be a landmark moment in the Post Office Horizon IT scandal, as the inquiry publishes volume one of its final report. This will focus on the human impact of the injustice and the process of compensation, which some victims are still waiting to be paid.
Summer recess in the Scottish Parliament continues, but the new Scottish housing secretary, Màiri McAllan, told The Herald over the weekend that a plan to address Scotland’s housing emergency will be ready after the summer break (£). Meanwhile, the Scottish Daily Express revealed the Scottish Government’s pledge to build 110,000 affordable houses by 2032 has been given an amber/red rating in internal documents, which means its delivery is in doubt.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
The number of Scottish banknotes in circulation has fallen four times more rapidly than their English equivalents, according to The Sunday Mail. The number of Scottish notes has dropped 16% in real terms in five years, compared with a fall of four per cent for their English counterparts.
The CBI Financial Services Survey, conducted between 29 May and 16 June, found that business volumes declined in the quarter to June at the fastest rate since Q4 2023, with optimism falling at the steepest pace in almost two years. Firms expect to reduce investment in land, buildings, vehicles, plants and machinery over the next 12 months.
Deloitte’s latest quarterly survey, which canvasses opinion from chief financial officers of 61 of Britain’s biggest companies, shows the UK is viewed as the most attractive destination in which to invest (£) alongside India. Overtaking the US and Japan, a net balance of 13% of respondents described Britain as very or somewhat attractive when it comes to investment.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
“Music mobilises us, but its claim to be a harbinger of change has grown thinner”. A week on from a controversial Glastonbury festival, Ludovic Hunter-Tilney exploredthe historic power of music to mobilise and ignite change (£) in the Financial Times, asking whether it still holds the same effectiveness in today’s society.
Matthew Holehouse, The Economist’s British politics correspondent, comparedLabour’s first year in government to the approach taken by previous parties voted in from opposition in this short video. In Holehouse’s view, Labour has failed on two grounds: firstly, by entering government without preparing a deep analysis of what was wrong with the British state, and secondly, because it hasn’t confronted the existential challenge that is being an austerity Labour party.
Technology promises to make our lives more efficient, but is it doing just the opposite in some cases? Jessica Grose in the New York Times argues that many of the rules we live by are governed by the fear of not keeping up, and a problem with technologies in 2025 is that we can’t control whether we use them (£).
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Note: The Scottish Parliament is in recess until 31 August.
Monday
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Westminster
- Lords, oral questions: Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the sustainability and reliability of the news media
- UK Engagement with Space Committee, oral evidence: UK engagement with space
- UK: A British Medical Association ballot of junior doctors over strike action closes
- US: President Donald Trump hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for White House talks
- France: Paris Fashion Week Haute Couture Womenswear Fall/Winter 2025/2026 begins
- Reports: UK Halifax July House Price Index
Tuesday
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Westminster
- Westminster Hall debate: Alcohol and Cancer
- Lords, oral questions: Energy and water consumption data centres in the UK
- Culture, Media and Sport Committee, oral evidence: Creative Industries Sector Plan
- Industry and Regulators Committee, oral evidence: Building Safety Regulator
- Defence Committee, oral evidence: UK contribution to European Security
- UK: French President Emmanuel Macron arrives for his first state visit to the UK and will address both Houses of Parliament at 4pm; The Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry publishes volume one of its final report
- Reports: The Office for Budget Responsibility releases its fiscal risks report
Wednesday
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Westminster
- Commons chamber, Oral questions: Scotland
- Commons chamber: Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Scottish Affairs Committee, private meeting: The financing of the Scottish Government
- Financial Services Regulation Committee, oral evidence: Growth of private markets in the UK following reforms introduced after 2008
- Energy Security and Net Zero Committee, oral evidence: The cost of energy
- UK: The full welfare bill impact assessment to be published; Infected Blood Inquiry due to publish an additional report on compensation
- EU: Philip Lane, executive board member of the European Central Bank, will deliver a speech on a broad perspective on the ECB’s monetary policy agenda at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium
- US: Deadline set by president Donald Trump for the introduction of his “reciprocal” tariffs
- Reports: July Financial Stability Report from the Bank of England
Thursday
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Westminster
- Commons chamber: Business Statement
- UK: Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron lead a UK-France Summit
- Belgium: Ursula von der Leyen is to face a European parliament no-confidence vote in latest challenge to the European Commission president
- Reports: RICS residential housing market survey; UK government publishes its annual stats on the number of children affected by the two-child benefit limit
Friday
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Westminster
- Private Members’ Bills: Community Energy (Review) Bill, second reading
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Scottish Government data
- Land and Buildings Transaction Tax Statistics, June 2025
- Reports: UK GDP estimate to be published
Saturday
- UK: Ladies singles final at the Wimbledon tennis tournament in London
Sunday
- US: First anniversary of the shooting of Donald Trump at a rally ahead of last year’s presidential election
- UK: Men’s singles final at the Wimbledon Championships