Sophie Taylor, client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
The SNP will roll out its yellow carpet on Thursday as it kicks off its conference in Aberdeen. If John Swinney’s conversation with Laura Kuenssberg is any indication, you should expect a familiar mix of independence planning and Westminster bashing – with Andy Burnham’s recent comments on rejoining the EU and his adjustment to the state pension triple lock firmly in Swinney’s firing line.
This could prove to be a more contentious SNP conference than most with the public service reform agenda causing disquiet amongst some, while others have voiced anger over the platforming of Scottish Green co-leader Gillian Mackay.
Meanwhile, the latest findings from Ipsos present a challenging backdrop for the first minister ahead of the conference, with just over half of Scots fearing the country is going “in the wrong direction” - up from 45% in May. Additionally, 42% would be happy for Holyrood ministers to work closely with their Westminster counterparts, compared with 30% in May.
This will also be a week of diplomacy as Britain seeks to bridge the divide between the US and Ukraine following Donald Trump’s decision to break sanctions and buy Russian diesel. Zelenskyy thanked prime minister Andy Burnham for a “good and timely” call on Saturday, saying the pair would meet in the coming days. Burnham is due to address the Commons this afternoon.
Thursday’s monthly GDP estimate will be an important marker for chancellor John Healey ahead of his first budget, less than three weeks away. Defence secretary Wes Streeting confirmed that defence spending will be increased but stopped short of setting out a route to achieving the government’s 3% of GDP target by 2030.
Central bankers and economists are gathering today for the annual IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, which will continue through the week, while leaders from the likes of Microsoft and Google DeepMind will speak at an AI summit in Dublin on Wednesday.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Scotland’s renewables industry has agreed to prioritise four floating wind projects(£) – 960MW Buchan Winds, 2GW Caledonia, 100MW Pentland and 100MW Salamander – according to The Scotsman. This move comes as more developers are expected to hand back ScotWind leases to Crown Estate Scotland in the coming months due to rising costs, delays and concerns over project viability.
Scottish Labour MPs are lobbying the Treasury to adopt “the Gordon Brown approach” to taxing the Scotch whisky industry (£), hoping for a policy they can sell in Scotland. According to The Sunday Times, drinks industry insiders fear the chancellor could impose another increase in spirits duty in this month’s budget, despite the industry already experiencing a 17% rise since Labour came to power in 2024.
An economic impact assessment found that a £35m investment in a new Centre for Advanced Brewing and Distilling at Heriot-Watt University could generate an additional £53.4m for the Scottish economy every year and create 1,570 jobs within 10 years. It would require £25.3m from industry as well as £9.7m in public investment. If not raised, it will become increasingly difficult for Heriot-Watt’s existing facilities to support the sector effectively.
In a short video, The Economist examines the strain on ‘rich world’ economies, and outlines which ones have it the worst in the eyes of investors who are punishing high debt, inflation and populist policies. It compares France, the UK, the US, and Japan with more promising trajectories in Germany, Canada, Switzerland and the Nordics. Here is the full article (£).
OpinioNation - columns of interest
In her latest column for The Sunday Times, Kate Forbes contends that there is a dangerous complacency when it comes to the importance of defence and national security (£). She argues that a national, collective shift is required, and that the SNP’s conference this week is a vital opportunity to weigh up the gravity of the moment.
Catherine McWilliam, nations director at IoD Scotland, writes in The Scotsman that rural policy conversations too often focus on how to stop these communities losing what they already have (£). Elsewhere in Scotland, however, it’s all about accelerating growth, attracting investment and helping businesses scale. Part of the problem, she argues, is trying to design policy around a single definition of rural Scotland.
What explains the contradiction between the precariousness of the world right now and the majestic nonchalance across much of the population? The answer, at least in part, is pessimism fatigue, according to Janan Ganesh. He writes in the Financial Times that despair is dangerous because threats are often wrong or pass quickly, making us less vigilant - not more (£).
Shifting the dial - recent research
With the grand return of The Celebrity Traitors’ second season, Ipsos conducted polling to assess how the British public’s trust in politicians differs from the stars associated with the programme.
The results were stark. When presented with a list of hypothetical head to heads between politicians and people associated with The Celebrity Traitors, those linked to the programme are considered more trustworthy:
- Claudia Winkleman 41% vs Andy Burnham 24%
- Michael Sheen 52% vs Nigel Farage 14%
- Rob Beckett 44% vs Kemi Badenoch 17%
- Romesh Ranganathan 50% vs Wes Streeting 8%
- Ross Kemp 50% vs Ed Miliband 13%
- Richard E. Grant 49% vs Zack Polanski 12%
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
NB: The Scottish Parliament is in recess until 25 October.
Monday
- Thailand: 2026 Annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank begin, lasting until Sunday
- Canada: Thanksgiving
Tuesday
- Scottish Government data: Finance statistics from the Scottish Household Survey
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Westminster
- Commons, oral questions: Energy Security and Net Zero
- Lords, oral questions: Impact of industrial electricity prices on the international competitiveness of British manufacturing
- Treasury Committee, oral evidence: Work of the Financial Conduct Authority, chief executive Nikhil Rathi to be probed
- Industry and Regulators Committee, oral evidence: The relationship between the government and the defence industry
- Business, Innovation, Science and Trade Committee, oral evidence: AI adoption, safety and governance. Meta, Google, OpenAI and Anthropic to appear.
- Reports: IMF World Economic Outlook report
Wednesday
- Former US president Barack Obama speaks at the Hydro in Glasgow at 6:30pm
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Westminster
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Westminster Hall debate: Future of nuclear energy in Scotland
- Lords, oral questions: Additional housing powers devolved to local authorities
- Scottish Affairs Committee, oral evidence: Connectivity in Scotland: Digital connectivity
- Women and Equalities Committee, oral evidence: Beyond participation: Routes into sport for girls and women
- Energy UK conference with speakers including shadow energy secretary Andrew Bowie, energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey
- The Frieze Art Fair and Frieze Masters 2026, Britain’s largest contemporary art event, opens to the public in Regent’s Park, London
- Ireland: International AI summit in Dublin. EU and global leaders, heads of government, CEOs, investors, innovators and academics to attend
- 100th anniversary of the first Winnie the Pooh book published
Thursday
- Annual SNP conference kicks off in Aberdeen, continuing through Saturday
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Westminster
- Commons, oral questions: Impact of increases to employer’s National Insurance on the arts and cultural sector
- Lords, short debate: Promoting family businesses in the UK
- Reports: UK August GDP estimate
- Belgium: European Council meeting of EU heads of state and government in Brussels begins, running until Friday. Leaders from the 27 EU countries will discuss the next EU long-term budget as well as competitiveness, Ukraine, migration and security and defence
- Wales: King Charles attends the ceremonial opening of the Senedd
- Canada: Fifth Montreal Climate Security Summit, hosted by the Conference of Defence Associations Institute and the Nato Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence
- Switzerland: Fifa Council meeting, when president Gianni Infantino is expected to release the documents relating to his plan to sell off a stake in the World Cup
Friday
- Thailand: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey addresses Institute of International Finance meeting in Bangkok
Saturday
- John Swinney to give keynote speech at the SNP’s annual conference
Sunday
- Thailand: IMF and World Bank annual meetings signing ceremony