Will Torness, senior client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
With the UK marking the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum this week, it looks all but inevitable the country will have its seventh prime minister since that historic vote, as Westminster prepares for another leadership shakeup.
Keir Starmer is expected to announce plans for his resignation as prime minister today – and may have done so by the time some of our readers open this newsletter, with reports suggesting that he will leave office by September in time for Labour's annual conference.
Business secretary Peter Kyle was on the Sunday circuit saying that Starmer was taking the weekend to ‘[reflect] on political realities’ after Andy Burnham’s decisive margin of victory in the Makerfield by-election last week.
The remaining question now is whether Makerfield’s new MP, who will be sworn in today, will face a contest or a ‘coronation’ for the Labour leadership before taking residence at No 10. The latter looks increasingly likely with an unnamed minister saying that Burnham could have as many as 300 backers within the parliamentary party, which would be a blow to Wes Streeting’s hopes of a challenge.
In Edinburgh, Tuesday will be sentencing day for former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell, who is expected to get a lengthy prison sentence after his conviction for embezzling £400,000 from SNP funds. It’s also possible we’ll get more answers behind Murrell’s crimes during the mitigation in court.
Tuesday will also see parliamentary committee business commence at Holyrood, but it will be over nearly as soon as it gets started. Committees will choose their deputy conveners over the course of the week before MSPs are officially on recess from Saturday until the end of August. Before that, however, they will be in the chamber on Saturday for the ceremonial opening of the parliamentary term, with King Charles making a formal address.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
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A decade after the Brexit vote, official trade data shows that Scotland is selling around £1 billion a year less than it was before leaving the bloc, with Scotland-to-EU exports dropping by up to 93% below pre-Brexit levels in some sectors. The Herald (£) reports that those experiencing the greatest fall in sales include manufacturing, seafood chemicals, pharmaceuticals, engineering and food and drink.
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Years behind schedule and tens of billions over budget, could HS2 have a further knock-on effect for Scotland’s railway services? The Times (£) reports on industry figures’ warnings of reduced capacity on key routes that could ultimately undermine long-term connectivity between Scotland and England, despite early promises of faster and cheaper journeys.
- As the Tartan Army vacates Boston for Miami this week, they’ve left behind a positive impression that could translate into lasting economic benefits for Scotland. Daily Business reports on how goodwill and good vibes during the World Cup may be the nation’s best unintended marketing tool.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
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In The Scotsman (£), councillor Stephen Jenkinson writes that Edinburgh stands at a crossroads in its public transportation future, arguing that plans to expand its tram lines are a strategic opportunity that will determine the city’s next phase of economic success.
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Pointing to Hearts’ use of advanced data analytics to scout and sign ‘quiet overperformers’ to the team, Colin Borland writes in The Herald (£) that smart use of technology, like AI, can help small businesses gain an edge. Borland suggests that as AI becomes more accessible for SMEs, rather than replace human judgement altogether, it enhances decision-making that ultimately supports growth.
- The proposed social media ban for UK teens may bring more nuanced consequences than initially perceived – but it’s less clear if parents and policymakers are really ready to address them. In the Financial Times (£), Claer Barrett questions whether the government’s focus on restriction overlooks a deeper issue of digital dependence and a deficiency of spaces for kids offline.
Shifting the dial - recent research
A new YouGov survey has taken the pulse of the UK ten years after Brexit, showing that majorities in Scotland (75%), England (56%) and Wales (61%) all believe the decision was wrong in hindsight.
The survey also showed sizable support across all three countries for rejoining the EU – including 70% in Scotland, 54% in England, and 59% in Wales. However, only Scotland would still back EU membership even if it did not include the UK’s former opt-outs like joining the Euro.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Expected statement from Keir Starmer on the future of his premiership
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Scottish Government data
- Closing: Modernising Revenue Scotland’s tax administration framework
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Westminster
- House of Commons: Oral questions on education; remaining stages of Armed Forces Bill
- House of Lords: Committee stage for Sporting Events Bill; Committee stage for Financial Services and Markets Bill
- CBI Industrial Trends Survey released
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- General questions
- First Minister’s Questions (backbench members)
- Ministerial statement on non-domestic rates reform
- Scottish Government debate on meeting the challenge of climate change
- Committee announcements
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Deputy conveners chosen
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Westminster
- House of Commons: Oral questions for HM Treasury
- House of Lords: Second reading for National Security (State Threats) Bill
- General Committee: Debate on Health Bill
- Culture, Media and Sport Committee: Oral evidence on BBC Royal Charter Review
- Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee: Oral evidence on climate adaptation and emergency response
- Energy Security and Net Zero Committee: Oral evidence on international climate policy
- Business and Trade Committee: Oral evidence on consumer protection
- Former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell to be sentenced in embezzlement case
- 10-year anniversary of the Brexit referendumIn the Holyrood chamber
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio questions on climate action and rural affairs, as well as on education, culture and Gaelic
- Members’ business on nuclear power in Scotland
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Deputy conveners chosen
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Westminster
- Prime Minister’s Questions
- House of Commons: Debate on motions to approve ways and means resolutions relating to the taxation of energy and vehicles; Debate on motions to approve the Draft Carbon Budget Order 2026, the Draft Climate Change Act 2008 (International Aviation and Shipping) Regulations 2026, and the Draft Climate Change Act 2008 (Credit Limit) Order 2026
- Westminster Hall debate on North Sea oil and gas
- House of Lords: Oral questions on the amount transferred to the Scottish Government in the last financial year following the devolution of social security benefits; Committee stage for Sporting Events Bill; Committee stage for Financial Services and Markets Bill
- Scottish Affairs Committee: Oral evidence on securing Scotland’s future regarding defence skills and jobs
- Energy Security and Net Zero Committee: Oral evidence on reviewing the electricity market
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Scottish Government Data
- GDP monthly estimate for April released
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- General questions
- First Minister’s Questions (party leaders)
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Westminster
- House of Commons: Oral questions for the Cabinet Office; Business questions to the Leader of the House
- General Committee: Debate on Health Bill
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Scottish Government data
- Business Insights and Conditions Survey released
- ONS housing statistics and BRC Consumer Sentiment Monitor survey released
- British Chambers of Commerce conference
Friday
- Labour to announce candidate for Manchester mayoral election
Saturday
- King Charles and Queen Camilla to attend Scottish Parliament session’s opening ceremony
- Armed Forces Day