Mille Hean, associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
As the new parliament settles into its business this week, details on proceedings and committees are expected to become clearer and first minister John Swinney will face his first set of FMQs on Thursday.
An early defining moment for the new session will arrive tomorrow, when Swinney will bring a motion on Scottish independence to a vote. While the SNP is expected to secure victory with support from the Greens, the move invites Westminster to transfer constitutional powers and, while Keir Starmer might welcome any diversion from the disquiet in his parliamentary party, the UK government won’t require much time to consider the request before issuing a refusal.
Constitutional theatre aside, the Scottish Government faces a stark fiscal reality. Deputy first minister and cabinet secretary for finance and local government, Jenny Gilruth, signalled that the government will “undoubtedly” need to make cuts to address a predicted shortfall of nearly £5 billion by the end of the decade. However, the politically unsavoury question of which areas will face the axe remains unanswered.
A relatively quiet period in Westminster – with MPs away for Whitsun recess – will shift political interest towards early manoeuvring for three key by-elections next month for seats in Aberdeen South, Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, and Makerfield.
In the latter, voters can expect Labour MPs to be visible in support of Andy Burnham, while Nigel Farage is likely to be on the campaign trail with Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon, who will be forced to explain and defend offensive comments made previously on social media. The first poll of the campaign places Labour on 43%, just three points ahead of Reform.
Burnham has reportedly sought advice from Sue Gray, the prime minister’s former chief of staff, on managing a potential power transfer in Downing Street. While allies insist he remains solely focused on the by-election scheduled for 18 June, the discussions highlight the weight some Labour figures are placing on the Manchester mayor’s route back to Westminster. In the current prime minister’s corner is his chief secretary Darren Jones, who is warning against “fantasy politics” inside his party.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
The cost-of-living crisis is now the biggest issue facing Scots, overtaking the NHS for the first time in three years. According to the latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker by the David Hume Institute and Diffley Partnership, almost half of Scots (47%) cited increased prices as their top concern, while 77% believe the economy is worse now than it was a year ago – up from 62% in February.
Brewdog investors who lost out after participating in the firm’s ‘Equity for Punks’ scheme have been promised free shares in its co-founder’s new beer venture. James Watt said he would allocate 20% of shares in the new company, Second Best, to these investors, some of whom revealed they were “cynical” about their chances of regaining their losses.
CalMac and ScotRail announced a new partnership agreement to strengthen integration across ferry and train timetables, ticketing, communications and disruption management. Plans were unveiled at Wemyss Bay station, where rail services connect with CalMac ferries to Rothesay. Diane Burke, chief operating officer at CalMac, said: “This is an important step in strengthening the connection between rail and ferry services, helping us deliver a more efficient and joined-up experience for our passengers”.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
In The Guardian, Jonathan Freedland argues there are things the prime minister, and politics more widely, can learn from sport – and specifically from Arsenal’s historic Premier League success. He believes politicians should borrow three key lessons from Mikel Arteta’s long-awaited victory: stability, long-term thinking, and a compelling vision. Freedland contrasts these ingredients of sporting success with the challenges Keir Starmer and the Labour Party face today – a desire for instant gratification, a culture of short-termism bounded by electoral cycles, and the lack of a consistent and unifying direction of travel.
The “broad churches” of Britain’s main political parties inevitably foster internal factionalism, argues Emma Burnell, editor of Labour List, in the Financial Times (£). Within Labour, divisions between the hard left, the right, and the amorphous “soft left” blunt critical thinking and leave the party organisationally weaker. She believes that, while Labour’s soft left has struggled with infighting and a lack of rigid ideology, its pluralistic nature is also its greatest strength in parliament and across the country.
While John Swinney is set to bring forward a motion on Scottish independence on Tuesday, writing in The Herald (£) Brian Taylor contends that electoral outcomes do not equate to a direct mandate for a new referendum, particularly as constitutional authority remains firmly with Westminster. He argues that ultimately, the vote will serve as a symbolic act on the issue that defines his party rather than a practical path to independence.
Shifting the dial - recent research
Social class may be the new Scottish Parliament’s hidden inequality. According to post-election analysis from the University of Glasgow, highlighted here by The Scotsman, just one of Holyrood’s 129 MSPs comes from a working-class occupational background.
While many MSPs would self-identify as working-class, PhD researcher Shevaun Smith’s work uses prior occupation as a metric. The only MSP who qualifies under that definition is the SNP’s Karen Adam, who represents Banffshire and Buchan Coast and had jobs in hairdressing and retail before her election to Holyrood.
The University of Glasgow’s Dr Ewan Gibb commented that, while Holyrood was set up to be a “workers’ parliament”, we are seeing the growth of a “professional political class” from corporate and managerial backgrounds.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
-
Westminster
- The House of Commons is in recess until 1 June
- Spring Bank Holiday across the UK
- Andy Burnham discusses election results and Westminster politics at the Hay Festival
- Hajj begins
Tuesday
-
Holyrood
- First minister’s statement on independence: Ambitious for Scotland
- Committee announcements
- Scottish Government consultation on the Scottish Biometrics Commissioner closes
- Scottish Government data: Modern Apprenticeship statistics Q4 2025-26
- UK-EU relations discussed at the EU General Affairs Council in Brussels
- Eid al-Adha
Wednesday
-
Holyrood
- Ministerial statement: First Homes Fund
- Scottish Government debate: Expanding childcare
- Scottish Government data: GDP Q1 2026 estimate
- OECD report on public finances
- Ofgem announces quarterly price cap from July
Thursday
-
Holyrood
- First Minister’s Questions
- Scottish Government debate: It’s Scotland’s energy
- Reports: Nationwide House Price Index
- SSE preliminary full-year results
Friday
-
Scottish Government data
- Mid-year planning applications statistics
- Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Reykjavik Economic Conference
- Dame Debbie Crosbie, Eddie Barnes and Professor Graeme Roy speak at Politics as Normal? hosted by Prosper and the John Smith Centre in Glasgow
Saturday
- UEFA Champions League final in Budapest
Sunday
-
Govia Thameslink services nationalised
-
Women’s FA Cup final
-
Presidential election in Colombia