John Cumming, senior client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Andy Burnham begins his second week as prime minister, following a flurry of policy announcements last week. He has stated a desire to reform the social care system – to safeguard the NHS - and is due to make a speech on the subject on Wednesday.
The new prime minister has also signalled that this will be a ‘cost of living government’, but attention has now turned to how this ambition will be met within the constraints of the fiscal rules, all while delivering on areas such as defence, which desperately needs increased investment.
He will be keeping a close eye on monetary policy this week, with the Bank of England reviewing interest rates alongside counterparts in the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. While a rate hike is unlikely at this meeting, experts are warning that volatility in the global oil markets could lead to wider inflation and interest rises longer term.
The Commonwealth Games will continue this week, wrapping up on Sunday, just as focus shifts from Glasgow to Edinburgh, with the Fringe and International Festivals beginning at the weekend.
Whether you're glued to the games, soaking up the remaining sunshine or making the most of the (hopefully) quieter summer months to work through your to-do list, we hope you have a great week.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
- The Herald shines a spotlight on Kenneth Mackenzie Ltd, one of the oldest Harris Tweed mills, as it marks its 120th anniversary by outperforming the wider industry. Sales have risen every year since the pandemic, fuelled by fresh interest from customers in England, Germany, Japan and China. Managing director Nichola Lockerby attributes its resilience to local ownership, long-term investment, modernisation, strong customer relationships and expansion into international markets, particularly Asia. The mill employs 38 staff and supports 58 home-based weavers, making it a key part of the Outer Hebrides economy.
- A ten-year masterplan for the Thainstone Centre, one of Europe’s largest livestock auction centres, has been unveiled exclusively in the Press and Journal this morning. ANM Group, which owns the facility near Inverurie, has agreed plans to upgrade the existing site rather than build a new centre. Planned improvements include modernised livestock handling, a new showring, enhanced event spaces, a redesigned entrance, retail units and landscaped public areas.
- Writing for The Scotsman, Euan Tripp, a partner at legal firm Anderson Strathern, argues that Scotland’s sports and leisure sector has become an increasingly attractive investment proposition, driven by diversified revenue streams and long-term growth potential. While football investments such as Tony Bloom’s stake in Heart of Midlothian have attracted attention, investors are also backing experiential leisure assets including Lost Shore Surf Resort and Port Edgar Marina. According to Tripp, the most successful projects combine tourism, hospitality, property and commercial income, making them more resilient during economic uncertainty. He argues Scotland’s sporting heritage, natural environment and tourism appeal position it well to attract further domestic and international investment, creating economic opportunities, jobs and sustainable growth across the country.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
- Writing for The Scotsman, Euan McColm highlights the existential crisis Scottish Labour faces after its poor Holyrood election result and Anas Sarwar’s departure. However, he believes the party is not beyond saving. With Michael Marra and Monica Lennon emerging as potential replacements, McColm argues Marra has the strategic vision and ability needed to rebuild the party and that, with a more popular UK leader in the shape of Andy Burnham, Scottish Labour has an opportunity to gradually restore its credibility over the next five years.
- In an editorial piece, The Sunday Times argues that Andy Burnham’s government should prioritise pragmatic energy policy to support economic growth and lower costs. The paper welcomes suggestions that the new government may approve the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas developments, urging ministers to permit smaller "tieback" projects which connect smaller, unlicensed discoveries to existing infrastructure. While reaffirming support for net zero, the editorial argues the UK will rely on domestic oil and gas during the transition and that producing it at home is preferable to imports. It also calls for a stable fiscal regime, similar to Norway’s, to encourage investment, arguing energy security, jobs, tax revenues and growth should take precedence over ideological rigidity.
- The Guardian’s foreign affairs commentator, Simon Tisdall, argues that the international rules governing the seas are rapidly breaking down, creating a new global maritime conflict stretching from the Strait of Hormuz to the North Sea. He believes that unilateral actions by the US, Iran, China and Russia are undermining freedom of navigation, international law and global trade. Rising tensions in the South China Sea, Baltic, Red Sea and around the UK highlight growing risks to energy security, critical infrastructure and defence. Tisdall warns that maritime lawlessness risks undoing decades of international cooperation, threatening economic stability and global security.
Shifting the dial - recent research
According to the Fraser of Allander Institute’s latest Scottish Business Monitorsurvey, 64% of Scottish businesses have used AI in the past three months, up from around half in the previous quarter.
It also found that, for the first time, most firms in every major sector reported using the technology. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the use of AI remains highest among companies in the service economy, with 72% using some form of AI in the course of their work. However, the rate is steadily increasing in industries such as construction, manufacturing and production, where the number of firms using AI exceeded 50% for the first time.
Elsewhere, the survey also identified a drop in pessimism about the economic outlook, with the number of businesses expecting very weak growth over the next year falling from 34% to 27%.
However, uncertainty continues with 98% citing economic and business uncertainty and 94% citing political uncertainty as key concerns.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Prime minister to meet Volodymyr Zelensky, with the Ukrainian president being Andy Burnham’s first foreign visitor since taking office
- North Korea: Victory Day, marking the anniversary of the Korean War armistice agreement
- US: Andrew and Tristan Tate expected to appear in a Miami court following a UK extradition request. A federal judge will consider the case over the coming weeks
Tuesday
- Racing: Qatar Goodwood Festival begins with five days of horseracing in Chichester
- US: Mourners gather for Lindsey Graham’s funeral service at the Washington National Cathedral, with President Trump in attendance
- US: Federal Open Market Committee meeting begins, ends Wednesday
Wednesday
- Diplomacy: Lee Jae Myung, South Korean president, concludes his state visit to Brazil and travels to Chile as part of a South American tour of nations
Thursday
- UK: Greater Manchester mayoral election held, with the result announced on Friday
- Bank of England holds its July monetary policy meeting
Friday
- UK: HMRC deadline for self assessment taxpayers to pay second instalment for the 2025 to 2026 tax year
- Bank of Japan interest rate announcement
Saturday
- Wales: Start of National Eisteddfod, a week-long festival of Welsh arts, culture, competitive poetry writing and music
- Sailing: The largest and longest-running international sailing regatta in the world, Cowes Week, begins
- Higher education: The maximum annual university tuition fees in England will rise in line with inflation, from £9,535 for standard full-time courses to £9,790
Sunday
- Glasgow: Commonwealth Games closing ceremony
- Oil: Monthly meeting of OPEC+ (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)