As the starting gun is fired in General Election 2015, we’ll help you cut through the noise on health.
Welcome to Cut through, Incisive Health’s briefings on the latest developments on health in the General Election campaign.
We’ll bring you news of all the key developments, as well as analysis of their implications for short and longer-term health politics and policy.
As MPs head off to their constituency and prepare for government, unemployment or something in between, there is little doubt that health will be one of the defining issues of the 2015 General Election. Whether or not the NHS has been weaponised (and we’ll no doubt hear more on that), it is undoubtedly politicised.
In what has felt like one of the longest pre-election periods in history, the battle lines have already been drawn on the NHS. Labour will argue that the NHS as we know it will not be able to withstand another five years of the Conservatives. The Conservatives will argue that only they can be trusted to expose and address examples of failure. The Liberal Democrats will seek to burnish their NHS credentials with a focus on improving mental health services. All will pledge – to varying degrees – to spend more on health and to support the aspirations of the Five Year Forward View.
To date – and despite billions of pounds worth of spending commitments from all parties – there has been little movement in public opinion. Exclusive polling for Incisive Health shows that the parties’ positions on who is trusted to manage the NHS are largely unchanged. Labour retains a significant lead over the Conservatives. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats continue to languish in fourth place behind UKIP.
Over the past year the salience of the NHS has increased dramatically, with voters now listing it as their top priority. For Labour, with a consistent lead on health, this is good news. If people vote on the basis of the issue they say matters most to them, then Labour will be in good shape.
However, the Conservatives will take solace in the fact that David Cameron is still the most trusted leader on the NHS, with a small but seemingly steady lead over Ed Miliband. If people vote on the basis of the person they most trust on the issue they most care about, then the situation is considerably less rosy for Labour.
Overall, the opinion polls remain too close to call. Labour needs to make the election a vote on health, whereas the Conservatives need to neutralise the issue. One thing that is certain is that the contest on health will be fierce.
In the coming weeks the Incisive Health team will help you cut through the inevitable noise on health to uncover what really matters for the future of the NHS. You can expect to receive Cut through every Wednesday during the campaign, with special editions coming your way as and when there are major developments. We hope you enjoy it.
