Europe: the final countdown
It’s almost decision time. With just one month to go before the European elections Brussels is buzzing with speculation and anticipation. What do the latest polls predict? What message will voters send to their leaders? Who are the contenders for the next top jobs?
One thing is certain: these elections promise to deliver controversy. And this week we had a taste of things to come.
But first, there is the small matter of bidding farewell to (some of) the current class of MEPs and EU Commissioners. It should be recognised that they have piloted Europe through a severe economic and sovereign debt crisis while negotiating substantial new reforms along the way. Indeed, several important pieces of this puzzle were only settled last week.
New EU banking and financial reforms
One example of these reforms was just completed in the final marathon Plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg. In one of the very last votes of this mandate a ground-breaking banking union framework (unimaginable only a few years ago) was adopted after months of complex negotiations. This was also accompanied by a host of financial services reforms which were voted through last week. While many technical details need to be resolved the radical overhaul of the EU’s regulation of the finance sector under this mandate, and the next, will continue to foster debate for years to come.
Parliament vs Council: ready to rumble
Hot on the heels of these collegial celebrations we saw new battle lines drawn and inter-institutional fresh blows traded. The reason: should the next President of the Commission be decided by the European election results or by Member States in the European Council? Whoever is chosen will supervise the Commission’s exclusive right to propose new EU laws – a serious matter, then.
But this week the gloves came off in the debate.
The, usually mild mannered, Council President Herman van Rompuy (red corner) declared that “the difference between the Parliament and those who really decide is very clear to citizens”. Only in Brussels, home of the surreal, could such a statement make perfect sense. In response, the two leading candidates from the Parliament (blue corner) united to warn Member States that “the old days are over”. Expect to see more sparks to fly in this clash of the new and old orders as the institutions lock horns over the summer.
A fair deal for Britain in Brussels, courtesy of Luxembourg?
Finally, Jean-Claude Juncker, former Luxembourg PM and current centre right candidate for the Commission’s top job, launched his ‘election’ campaign in Brussels this week. Intriguingly, and perhaps in order to deflate growing support for UKIP, he has announced that he will “keep the UK within the EU”, address David Cameron’s demands for a renegotiation and work for a “fair deal for Britain”.
This unexpected statement could be just the sort of charm offensive needed to secure Juncker that top job. You see, in Brussels, not all votes are created equal – and Mr Cameron’s vote on the next Commission President will certainly carry a great deal more weight than most. With his own referendum on EU membership around the corner, David Cameron may want to consider his vote very carefully.
Fasten your seat belts for an interesting, and historic, few months.
David Henry Doyle
Head of Financial Services, Hume Brophy