There are now less than 24 hours until Britain goes to the polls and looks to elect a new government. There is little more than can be said about the parties’ respective positions or how the results may pan out in the macro-sense of the term. However, what will happen locally, seat-by-seat, has largely been overlooked, despite the fact that the final result is likely to be determined by a clutch of marginal seats. With this in mind we look to ten of the most marginal, and perhaps most important, constituencies and discuss who is likely to come out on top in each.
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Battersea
In 2010 Jane Ellison was elected as Battersea’s MP, the first Tory to hold the seat since 1992, winning 47 percent of the vote. This was a great result for the Conservatives, giving them a 12 point lead over Labour at a time when much of London was turning red. However, without a traditional activist base in the constituency there have been suggestions that Battersea could again swing to Labour.
However, local polling reveals that the Tories are still in a strong position, leading Labour by 39 to 32 points. It seems that Labour may have lost votes to the Greens, whose polling reveals that they have leapt from 1 to more than 3 points, and the omnipresent ‘don’t knows’. Indeed, Lord Ashcroft estimates that as many as 10 percent of voters in the constituency are still to decide how they will cast their ballot.
If the Tories are to stay in government they will need to keep a hold of seats like Battersea, where even though they are not particularly strong, Labour are yet to make an impact.
Keene Prediction: Conservative hold
Croydon Central
A very modern swing-seat, in recent memory Croydon Central has been both red and blue, but generally with just 6-8 points between the parties. However, before 1997 the Tories generally took over 50 percent of votes cast, indicating a degree of demographic change since the heady days of Thatcherism.
In 2010, the Tories won the seat, however, their share of the vote actually fell by 0.7 percent and they hung on largely thanks to a poor Labour campaign.
This doesn’t bode well for the Tories. Labour candidate Sarah Jones is not only born and bred in the constituency, but has applied the skills learned as head of campaigns at Shelter to a compelling ground campaign. With a small activist base it is difficult to see how the Conservatives will be able to hang on.
Keene Prediction: Labour gain
Paisley and Renfrewshire South
The rise of the SNP could well be embodied by one person: a twenty year-old politics student named Mhairi Black. Black is standing against shadow-Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander, a veritable ‘big beast’ who won almost 60 percent of the vote in 2010, an increased majority. The SNP took just 18 percent.
Despite a string of controversial social media posts, Black is, according to some polls, as far as 11 points ahead of Alexander, demonstrating the revolution that seems to be in progress north of the border. Certainly the loss of Alexander, a key advisor to Ed Miliband, would rock Labour’s confidence, and cast doubts as to whether they could hold any Scottish seats.
However, it should also be noted that some 20 percent of respondents to Lord Ashcroft’s most recent constituency polling were yet to decide which way to vote. In such a scenario Labour could expect some backswing as the incumbent party. Similarly, tactical voting may come into play, as unionists back Labour to a. keep the SNP out and b. keep hold of an extremely able MP.
Keene Prediction: Labour hold
Edinburgh North and Leith
In 2010, the SNP came forth in Edinburgh North and Leith winning under 10 percent of the vote. By contrast, Labour won almost 38 percent, the Lib Dems 34 percent and the Tories 15 percent.
However, recent polling has put the SNP in the ascendancy, leading Labour by 36 to 22 percent. Unlike Paisley and Renfrewshire South, the number of undecided voters is under 10 percent and the Lib Dem vote seems to have collapsed completely, standing at under 5 percent.
Local MP Mark Lazarowics doesn’t have the same ‘brand’ as Douglas Alexander and following the expenses scandal lost a degree of local support. In contrast the local SNP are buoyant, and have a strong local candidate in Councillor Deidre Brock.
In a night that is sure to see Labour lose seats in Scotland it would take a braver man than I to bet against Ms. Brock claiming a famous victory.
Keene Prediction: SNP gain
Wirral West
The Tories gained Wirral West in 2010, winning 42.5 percent of the vote, an increase of little under 1 point. By contrast, Labour’s vote fell by 4 percent. It is notable that in 2005 Labour won the seat despite losing around 5 percent of their vote.
Current polling suggests that Labour voters who have migrated to the Lib Dems on Merseyside are returning to the fold. While the Tories seem to have maximised their potential in 2010, Labour can still appeal to wavering voters, particularly those who were displeased with coalition arrangements. The growth of the UK Independence Party could also work in Labour’s favour, weakening Tory support.
While Esther McVey has established herself as one-to-watch in the Commons it would not be surprising to see her removed from office. If Labour win in the Wirral it will certainly strengthen Ed Miliband’s Prime Ministerial credentials.
Keene Prediction: Labour gain
North Cornwall
The south-west is traditionally the Liberal Democrat’s heartland, and North Cornwall is no exception. In 2010 Dan Rogerson won over 48 percent of the vote here, with the Tories some 7 points behind.
Since then polling has not been kind to the Lib Dems. Recent polling has seen them drop as low as 23 percent, while their Conservative rivals are on 30 percent. The UK Independence Party have proven to be surprise contenders with around 13 percent of those polled suggesting they would back Julie Lingard.
However, it should be recognised that up to 20 percent of those polls were still undecided, suggesting that there are still votes to be won. Similarly, the Lib Dems ground operation should not be underestimated. This constituency has been solidly Lib Dem since the early 1990s and their activists are a force to be reckoned with. Coupled with incumbency this would seem to give them the edge. Certainly, winning here would be a real coup for the Conservatives.
Keene prediction: Liberal Democrat hold
South Thanet
The Tories and Labour have both claimed South Thanet in recent years. In 2010 the former took 48 percent of the vote, surely enough to assure Laura Sandys a second term…enter Nigel Farage.
The charismatic UKIP leader is confident in his ability to shake up the political establishment and win in Thanet, overturning a 7,600 majority in the process. While a split on the right would traditionally benefit Labour, there is little to suggest that their message has cut through.
Polling initially gave Farage a lead, but as the campaign has heated up he has slipped behind. Illness and national UKIP campaigning hasn’t helped matters, nor indeed has the growing realisation amongst residents that one of the UK’s most infamous politicians could end up representing them. It seems that the Conservative vote is hardening and will be tough for UKIP to beat.
Keene prediction: Too close to call.
While the Tories are performing above expectations the collapse of the Labour vote suggests that something could be stirring. Certainly this is a seat to watch on election night.
Sheffield Hallam
The battle for Nick Clegg’s seat could be one of the most important of this election. If Labour dethrone the Lib Dem leader, as a number of polls have suggested, the direction of political traffic could change, casting doubt on any future ‘Con-Dem’ coalition agreement.
However, the Lib Dems seem to have responded to the threat to their leader’s seat, dedicating time, activists and money to it in a bid to safeguard it from Labour. Much of the pitch has been angled towards disaffected Tories, suggesting that tactical voting will come into play. In 2010 Clegg won over 53 percent of the vote. This time around 35-40 percent seems more likely, figures that would push Clegg over the line, but only just.
Keene prediction: Lib Dem hold
Southampton Itchen
This is the only Labour-held seat that the Tories seem to stand a chance of winning. John Denham, the former cabinet minister and an advocate of Ed Miliband is standing down with Rowenna Davis looking to replace him.
Davis is a rising star of the Labour party. A former journalist and author of Tangled up in Blue, a study of the ‘blue Labour’ phenomenon. If she holds the seat she is expected to go far, certainly a cabinet position would not be a surprise at some point in the future.
In 2010 Labour took 36.8 percent of the vote, to the Tories 36.3. Such a margin suggests massive vulnerability. While Denham had built up deep local support, Davis has faced accusations of being parachuted in by the party, charges that certainly aren’t helped by her north London schooling.
However, polling currently puts UKIP at around 20 percent of the vote, a huge increase on the 4 percent they secured in 2010. While some of this support has come from ex-Labour voters, it appears to have had the greater effect on the Tories’ chances. Despite her background, Davis has also thrown herself into community activism, becoming a mainstay at local events and establishing an enviable social media following.
Keene prediction: Labour hold
Dudley South
A 1994 by-election victory here heralded Tony Blair’s landslide three years later, and the seat was held until 2010, when Chris Kelly won it for the Conservatives, following the decision of popular Labour MP Ian Pearson to step down.
Labour require a swing of just over 5 percent to win the seat back, which if repeated on a national scale would generally see it on course to win an overall majority. The situation in Scotland means that this is unlikely to be the case. Labour’s cause is helped by Chris Kelly’s decision to step down after just a single term and a tightening Conservative lead. The UKIP factor could again come into play, potentially making Dudley South a barometer of the election more generally.
Keene prediction: Conservative hold