High homeownership, few students, a less diverse population, and a textbook British commuter suburb.
So, the recent South Gloucestershire Council by-election triggered by the resignation of former councillor Kris Murphy in Longwell Green (LG) ward should look straightforward for the Tories. It will be anything but.
On paper, the ward is classic Conservative territory, with the electoral results to prove it. In the 21st century, the Tories have won every local council seat here and usually with convincing ease. Previous councillors representing this ward include the late John Calway, leader of the Conservative group and of South Gloucestershire Council, and respected cross-party since the days of Avon County.
The Reform UK factor
A turquoise wave is likely to flow across the ward. Looking at parliamentary elections, LG was part of Kingswood at the 2024 by-election and North East Somerset and Hanham in 2025. Reform candidates, one of whom is now Restore Leader Rupert Lowe, achieved between 10 and 14 per cent of the vote. In recent parish council by-elections, nearby Downend saw Reform achieve nearly 600 votes from a cold start, though they lost to a local candidate. In the five parish by-elections held in 2026, Reform UK have won only one.
The question is not whether Reform UK can win in LG. It is the extent to which they disrupt what would normally be a routine Tory win, whether by winning outright or by taking a significant share of the vote.
Can the Liberal Democrats squeeze to victory?
Last year in Gloucestershire and Wiltshire, the Lib Dems benefited from the Reform UK vote taking chunks out of the Tory vote, and nibbling enough from Labour, for them to squeeze through the middle in these council elections. The Lib Dem vote did not need to climb that far. In the 2023 LG contest, the Lib Dems got within 170 votes of winning one of the two seats. That is the closest anyone has come in recent memory.
Maintaining this performance, combined with Reform UK achieving even a modest vote share, could spell trouble for the Tories and allow the Lib Dems to glide through. Labour are unlikely to feature as a serious force in this contest.
Bring on Super Thursday in 2027
This by-election will be an early indicator of electoral performance next year. With the Conservatives currently the largest party on South Gloucestershire Council, but in opposition, Reform UK’s performance will indicate the scale of the challenge they face in maintaining that position. Conversely, the Lib Dems will start to sense whether Reform UK are doing them a favour and opening up a route to outright control of the council for the first time since 1999. To do so, they will need to overcome their East Fringe problem: how to remind people they voted Liberal Democrat in places like Oldland Common while proposing widespread housing development on the Green Belt.
This by-election feels like the prelude to one of the most thrilling chapters in South Gloucestershire Council’s electoral history.
How does this impact on your development projects in the West of England and South Gloucestershire? Contact us on conversations@jbp.co.uk to discuss with our team.