This week’s political energy is less “steady governance” and more “a show that knows it’s in its final season.”
By-election victories and leadership challenges dominate headlines as Keir Starmer’s days look numbered. Here’s who’s riding high and who’s crashing hard.
Read this week’s Who’s Top, Who’s Not – brought to you by Whitehouse’s Talia Newmark.
Top: Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham moves to the top this week, having secured victory in the Makerfield by-election - a result that has implications well beyond the boundaries of a single constituency. In a seat emblematic of Labour’s traditional base, Burnham’s win is being read as a clear endorsement of regionally rooted, delivery-focused politics and most significantly has handed him a mandate to escalate his influence across the Labour party.
But its implications stretch further. The new Makerfield MP used his victory speech to say it is Labour’s “final chance to change,” sharpening the contrast between local Labour success and the national leadership, placing renewed pressure on Starmer.
The bottom line is Burnham hasn’t just won Makerfield - he’s converted victory into leverage, and in doing so, shifted pressure onto the Prime Minister. The challenge for Burnham is to keep up momentum because as soon as he touches government, some of his current shine will start to come off. He also needs to show that Makerfield was more than a one-off and that test will come in the more difficult Manchester Mayoral by-election that he has just triggered. Best keep those canvassing trainers at the ready, Andy!
Middle: Kemi Badenoch
Hovering somewhere between a midfield maestro and a slightly confused substitute warming up on the sidelines, Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party has spent this morning celebrating its parliamentary by-election win in Aberdeen South.
The win has been described as historic; the party’s first Scottish by-election gain since the 1970s and offers the Conservatives a rare moment of victory in a part of the UK where they have struggled for consistent traction. While a single by-election does not in itself signal a broader realignment, it provides a useful narrative for a party seeking to demonstrate renewed relevance in Scotland.
In a week where the political battleground shifted toward questions of leadership, discipline, and internal control, Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives have been keen to project renewed authority.
The Conservatives framed the contest around the future of North Sea oil and gas, effectively turning the by-election into a test case for their energy policy. This reflects a wider strategic choice: positioning the party as a defender of traditional energy industries and economic stability, particularly in regions where livelihoods are closely tied to hydrocarbons. For voters in Aberdeen, where the local economy remains deeply intertwined with the energy sector, that message appears to have resonated. This framing allows the Conservatives to present the result as an endorsement of their stance, not just locally, but as part of a broader argument against more rapid transitions away from fossil fuels.
A substantial by-election win and a new MP is not to be sniffed at; but Kemi needs to demonstrate that she truly deserves the title of leader of the opposition, instead of Nigel Farage. The Tories need to take back control of the narrative of who truly represents the right on British politics.
Bottom: Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer finds himself in the “bottom” column this week, not because of scandal but because Andy Burnham’s by-election victory has sharpened questions about Labour’s future direction and, crucially, its leadership. Burnham’s win has been read by many within the Labour party as more than a local success; it is a reminder that an alternative Labour voice, rooted in regional authority and a more outspoken political style, still carries weight.
For the Prime Minister, the implications are immediate and seismic. Burnham’s victory, and the momentum it has generated, introduces a new variable into the political equation: a potentially destabilising leadership contest that could produce a more electorally potent challenger. Where the government has previously benefited at times from cautious, centralised Labour messaging, the prospect of a Burnham-led challenge reframes the risk.
Whilst the timings of a leadership challenge are still to be confirmed, one thing is for certain: Burnham’s election means there is one coming. For Starmer, the week has been less about setting the agenda and more about managing his own legacy.