Too big to fail: France’s political crisis

France, Europe’s second-largest economy, a cultural and artistic powerhouse, and one of the best equipped fighting forces on the continent, is facing one of its most severe political and economic crises in decades. Once seen as the continent’s political heartbeat, France now appears uncertain, divided, and increasingly fragile.

Since its surprise snap parliamentary election last summer that left President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition without a majority, political paralysis has deepened fuelling public frustration. The recent resignation and subsequent reappointment of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu after just twenty-seven days in office, the third failed premiership in under a year, has rung alarm bells across the European political establishment.

First appointed a month ago, Lecornu was Macron’s final “trump card” to forge a working government and pass a long-delayed budget. However, his efforts to bridge divides between the socialists and conservatives collapsed after Lecornu alienated both camps. The final straw for the Republicans would be the appointment of Bruno Lemaire as Minister of Defence, a man who had left their party to join Macron’s in 2017 and has been blamed for France’s poor financial situation. Bruno Retailleau, the Leader of the Republicans, would decry this breach of trust and force both Lecornu and Le Maire to resign.

However, Macron’s isolation and desperation were shown on full display when Lecornu was subsequently re-appointed, merely four days after he resigned. He has now unveiled a new government but still faces the difficult task of drafting a budget that can be approved by the divided parliament. Furthermore, the Republicans have still not come back to Macron’s side, now claiming they will only support the government on a bill-by-bill basis. 

While Macron argues this reappointment is key to ensuring stability, it has increased the anger felt by other parties in the parliament with the leader of the far-right Marine Le Pen announcing that her party will move to bring down the government with a vote of no confidence and the leader of France Unbowed, Mathilde Panot, stating “never before has a president wanted so much to govern by disgust and anger”. 

This political paralysis is compounded by mounting economic strain. France’s public debt has risen above 114% of GDP, 18% higher than the UK’s, and servicing it now costs more than all government departments except education and defence. Furthermore, the downgrade of French debt by FitchRatings has undermined investor confidence whilst the widening yieldspread between French and German government bonds has reached its highest peak since the eurozone crisis in 2012, prompting worries the European Central Bank may have to intervene to ensure eurozone stability.

This economic crisis carries profound implications for Europe’s economic and geopolitical standing. France’s economic health is not just a national concern, it underpins the credibility of the entire eurozone. As Europe’s second-largest economy, a destabilised France weakens the EU’s collective financial reputation, limits its negotiating leverage with the United States and China, and risks discouraging foreign investment across the continent.

On the political front, the failure of Macron’s leadership could not come at a worse moment. With Russia’saggressive rhetoric increasing, the US showing signs of transatlantic fatigue, and far-right parties coming to power across Europe, the EU needs cohesive leadership. France has traditionally been that leader as Europe’s only nuclear power, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and a key advocate of European defence integration, especially with Macron at the helm. 

However, a weakened France diminishes the EU’s ability to project power abroad and consolidate its unity at home. Without Macron’s leadership championing European strategic and industrial autonomy, Brussels bureaucrats who once relied on the country’s assertiveness now face the prospect of a rudderless EU dominated by a cautious Germany and fragmented by nationalist governments.

This instability also undermines Europe’s image as a zone of democratic reliability. Foreign partners view France’s gridlock as symptomatic of a broader European malaise, an ageing continent constrained by bureaucracy and political bickering. If France’s debt crisis worsens or early elections bring the far-right National Rally to power, Europe could confront its most serious political realignment since Brexit. Such an outcome would weaken Europe’s collective defence posture, disrupt coordination on Ukraine, and embolden external actors like Russia and the United States to exploit divisions within the EU.

Ultimately, France’s crisis is not merely about a government in disarray, it is about the credibility of the European project itself. France now teeters on the edge of dysfunction, threatening to drag Europe’s ambitions down with it as the country’s domestic paralysis and spiralling debt threaten both France’s global influence and the EU’s capacity to act as a unified geopolitical actor.

For Europe’s sake, France cannot afford to fail.

by Paul-Matthieu Faure, Intern