With the horrific attack in Manchester and subsequent sorrow and solidarity at the forefront of all our minds, the politics of Wales continued in a sombre tone this week.
There was also a poignant reflection on the life of former First Minister Rhodri Morgan as the Welsh Assembly met for the first time since his passing. Assembly Members from across the political spectrum shared anecdotes from their memories of Rhodri’s time in politics alongside their admiration for the man and an acknowledgement of his immense role in the history of modern Wales.
Julie Morgan AM, Rhodri’s wife, thanked members for their tributes. While referring to the “terrible personal blow” of his passing, the Cardiff North AM spoke vibrantly of her husband’s love of “the thrust of politics” and unwavering desire to look forward with optimism.
Following the tributes to the former First Minister and the news from Manchester, the traditional political cut and thrust of First Minister’s Questions was replaced by a series of questions reflecting on the terrorist attack and how the Welsh Government can help to support those affected and protect major events in Wales.
The tone of the Senedd Tuesday made the political activity of the previous day feel like a distant memory. However, the launch of the Welsh Conservative manifesto didn’t quite get the coverage many Tories in Wales would have hoped for. The headlines from the Prime Minister’s speech related more to a social care policy which was only relevant in England. While awaiting the start of the manifesto address, David Deans of BBC Wales filled in the time by tweeting the pre-speech playlist. By the end of the day some might have wondered about putting the old Benny Hill chase music to a video of the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg pursuing the Secretary of State for Wales around a building seeking his comments.
A moment of legal history occurred this week, although you’d be forgiven for missing it. Legislation to introduce a Land Transaction Tax which will replace stamp duty in Wales from April 2018 received Royal Assent. It is the first new Welsh tax legislation for 800 years.
The week was bookended by two-eye catching General Election opinion polls. On Monday, ITV Wales and the Wales Governance Centre released their latest polling carried out by YouGov. The findings showed a stark reversal of recent indicators. News that Labour is ahead in Wales is not normally headline grabbing but after successive polls gave the Conservatives a strong lead, the scale of the turnaround was significant. Labour were up 9% to 44%, the Conservatives slipped 7% to 34%, all the other parties remained within the margin of error of the previous poll with Plaid Cymru on 9%, Lib Dems 6%, UKIP 5%. The Conservative optimism of gains in Bridgend, Newport East and Wrexham has suddenly become a nervous look over the shoulder at the safety of their majority in Gower.
What can this change of fortunes be put down to? Welsh Labour has fought a campaign which has focused more attention on Carwyn Jones as leader than Jeremy Corbyn. Labour have also been aided by the Lib Dem campaign falling flatter than expected. It had been presumed that a Lib Dem resurgence, even a small one, would eat away at Labour majorities. This does not seem to be happening. Some, although not all, the seats being targeted by the Tories in Wales are in areas where they have traditionally not had a strong ground campaign or much usable data on voting intentions. To turn this around in a very short campaign simply through knocking as many doors as possible and mail shots is a big ask.
The publication of an UK-wide opinion poll on 25th May by YouGov for The Times suggested the shifts were occurring elsewhere too. Just 5% separated the Conservatives from Labour. However, the interpretation may not be quite as clear cut as first appears. A phenomenon has arisen of voters who traditionally back Labour, but do not want to see Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. In the earlier days of this election campaign it seemed certain that Theresa May would be re-elected as Prime Minister and as such those voters could cast their ballots for their local Labour candidate relaxed that Corbyn “could not” win and with the intention of curtailing the scale of May’s majority. With the polls closing those same voters may now face a dilemma – the risk of a Corbyn victory looks more plausible than it once did. Whether a tight poll two weeks from an election aids the Conservatives or Labour remains to be seen.
While political campaigning paused this week, our politicians did not. After weeks of a campaign which for one side is almost entirely based on the perceived unsuitability of a potential Prime Minister and for activists on the other side has seen near-hatred of the political party opposite as more of a driving force than policy, we have seen how our politicians have respond to the gravest of actions against our country with dignity, with respect for those who rushed to aid the wounded and those who keep us as safe as possible. The political heavyweights we expect to try and corner every possible column inch during a campaign this week know that the story is about the people of Manchester and the people right across the country who are shaken, afraid and determined to be resolute.
As the election campaign restarts, let us hope that the humanity demonstrated in the response to the atrocity in Manchester can influence the tone of the General Election debate. For beyond the focus groups, the opinion polling, the self-imposed echo chambers and the tribal partisanship are 65 million people who, now more than ever, want to reject fear and to decide how they will cast their vote inspired by hope.