With COVID-19 infections and tensions with the European Union (EU) rising, this has not been an easy few weeks for the government. With local lockdowns, new apps and even a pub curfew failing to stop the spread of infections, this week we examine how the government can get to grip with the crisis, while also seeking to secure a trade deal with the EU before the end of the year. We also take a look at Labour’s first conference under new leadership and the political impacts of the virus on both sides of the Atlantic.
A new dawn?
After the crushing defeat the party faced in last December’s general election, Labour was no doubt looking forward to a new start under leader Sir Keir Starmer. In a far cry from the packed out conference halls we saw under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, COVID-19 has forced the party conferences to go virtual this year. Despite the unusual setting, there were still a few interesting snippets of information that indicate how Labour will seek to position itself ahead of the 2024 election.
In an unusual move, Starmer stated in his keynote speech that Labour ‘deserved to lose’ the last election and needed to ask itself ‘what were we doing?’ by alienating many of its traditional supporters. Starmer also leaned in heavily on his past, noting how proud his family was when he received his knighthood for his work as director of public prosecutions. This was undoubtedly a nod to those voters in so called ‘red wall’ seats who voted Conservative for the first time last year; an attempt to make a clear demarcation between the previous leadership when many voters felt alienated by Corbyn’s perceived lack of patriotism.
The speech was described by The Sun’s political editor Harry Cole as ‘easily the best Labour conference speech in ten years’, high praise indeed from a newspaper that has been scathing about the past two Labour leaders. There were also signs that the speech had cut through to the public, with an Opinium poll giving Labour a 3% lead, its first since Boris Johnson became prime minister last July. Despite the scale of the defeat last year, there are positive signs that the public may be accepting Starmer’s invitation to ‘give Labour another look’, especially as the COVID-19 crisis continues to deepen.
Testing troubles
While the main opposition party has been basking in positive publicity over the last few weeks, the same cannot be said for the Scottish National Party (SNP). After the debacle surrounding whether or not Scottish university students would be allowed home for Christmas, the SNP would have been hoping for a quieter week. Unfortunately, Margaret Ferrier MP ensured this would not be the case.
After feeling unwell over the weekend, Ferrier requested a COVID-19 test. Instead of self-isolating to await the results, she travelled to London by train to attend parliament. Subsequently, on Monday evening she tested positive for the virus and travelled back to her home in Scotland, a clear breach of the regulations. These actions received condemnation from across the political divide, with Nicola Sturgeon describing them as ‘utterly indefensible’ and requesting that she resign as an MP. SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford also removed the whip shortly after the story broke. Ferrier put out an apologetic statement late on Thursday, but with demands for her resignation swirling, it remains to be seen how long these calls can be resisted.
Ironically for the SNP, if Ferrier is to survive this scandal it may very well be down to the man in international politics it loathes the most, Donald Trump. As Britain was still digesting the Ferrier news, president Trump confirmed that he and first lady Melania were self-isolating after testing positive for the virus. Trump, who at 74 is in the high risk category, has mostly avoided wearing a mask in public and has continued to host rallies with thousands of supporters in key swing states ahead of the election. While the impact of the diagnosis is yet to be fully digested, it brings into doubt whether the remaining presidential debates will go ahead as planned and severely undermines the president’s message that the virus will soon be ‘gone’. For the SNP however, this news will serve as the distraction needed to draw attention away from Margaret Ferrier, who will hope she can survive as an MP in the same way Dominic Cummings managed to ride out his own storm over summer.
Laws and lockdowns
While the Westminster village has focused on the political scandals and politics of the pandemic, over the last few weeks millions of Brits have seen enhanced restrictions in their local areas. Within the last month, the number of daily reported cases has risen from 1295 per day on 1September to 7108 by the end of the month. This led the government to implement a controversial 10pm curfew for pubs, bars and restaurants, a move which some Tory MPs have branded as ‘idiotic’ and a ‘sick experiment’ as many revelers merely retreat to their homes to continue partying late at night.
In addition, the government has also implemented a number of local lockdowns over the last fortnight with major cities such as Liverpool, Leeds, Birmingham and Cardiff under new restrictions. The uptick in cases is particularly concerning in the north of England, where two thirds of people face additional constraints, including not being allowed to mix with additional households unless they are in a public space. While the government has faced criticism for these additional measures, in stark contrast to a few weeks ago, it seems to have resisted the urge to conduct any more U-turns. While the 10pm hospitality curfew may seem arbitrary, it is seen by the government as a way of injecting clarity into its messaging and it will be in no mood to drop such policies even if some backbenchers remain concerned.
In further positive news, the NHS test and trace app was finally launched last week and has already seen an impressive 14 million downloads. Despite some initial teething problems regarding registering test results, the app has proved to be popular with the public and the government will be hopeful that this will help to create a more comprehensive tracking system for COVID-19 exposure. As public weariness with the pandemic grows stronger, the government will be keen to avoid a second national lockdown and will hope that it can regain some of the initial support it had at the beginning of the pandemic. However, with cases continuing to rise, the government needs to act swiftly before more drastic action becomes unavoidable.
See EU in court!
With COVID-19 once again dominating the deadlines, it is easy to forget that October is set to be the most important month yet for the Brexit negotiations. On Thursday, the EU announced that it would be bringing legal proceedings against the UK after the sections of the internal market bill that violated the Brexit withdrawal agreement were not removed.
Despite this, negotiations between the two sides are ongoing with a number of important deadlines set for this month. Thursday 15 October sees the UK’s stated deadline to agree a Brexit deal, with Boris Johnson noting earlier in the year that if an agreement is not reached by then ‘we should both accept that and move on’. The EU however, has a more generous timescale of 31 October to negotiate a deal, in order to allow for enough time for each individual member state to undergo the ratification process.
While a deal still looks like a long way off, there is always the tendency for the EU to take negotiations right to the wire. Likewise, many underestimated Johnson’s ability to secure a withdrawal agreement this time last year and it would be foolish to assume that a last minute compromise cannot be found this time, particularly around fisheries.
However, the news that the EU is to take legal action against the UK provides the perfect foil for Johnson should no trade deal be agreed. In this scenario, Johnson will no doubt point to the EU as being responsible for the collapse in talks and state that the legal action shows it was never serious about getting a deal. This hard-line approach, which served him so well in his leadership election, will be more difficult to pull off this time around. The government has admitted to breaching international law, meaning legal action was unavoidable.
What next?
As we head towards the end of the year, the dual threats of COVID-19 and Brexit negotiations will heighten significantly. With infections rising exponentially over the last month and increasing pressure on the government to do more ahead of the busy winter season for the NHS, Johnson must ensure the government’s credibility is not further tarnished by the kind of U-turns that were a regular feature over the summer.
Additionally, the government will be aware that the main reason for its election win last December was that the British public trusted it to deliver on Brexit. With Labour surging ahead under new leadership, the Conservatives can ill afford both a second wave of COVID-19 and a no trade deal scenario to play out over the course of winter, even if the 2024 election is still more than three and a half years away. This is set to be a difficult few weeks for the government, and with support diminishing it will take more than Johnson’s positive spirit to help alleviate the concerns of the public. His virtual party conference this weekend will therefore provide the perfect opportunity to strike a new tone, and convince the country he remains the right man for the job.