The anniversary
What were you doing this time last year? If, like me, you can remember the day in minute detail then you have probably also spent a bit of time this week reliving the most remarkable period in Scottish politics any of us have experienced.
Yes, it’s a year since the country took to the polls and voted ‘No’ to independence, albeit by a smaller margin than some of us expected at the beginning of the campaign. And it’s been almost as difficult to avoid #indyref talk this week as it was then.
There has been plenty of looking back in the media this week and reflections from the main protagonists about what went right and wrong. Perhaps the most revealing and entertaining account of events will be contained in the new book by journalist Joe Pike, ‘Project Fear’ which lifts the lid on the behind-the-scenes goings-on at the Better Together campaign; it seems ‘The Thick of It’ may be closer to reality than we had realised.
The fact that this book focusses on the failings on the unionist side of the argument seems to sum up the mood just now, where the referendum’s losers have seemed like winners ever since and vice-versa.
Indeed, among the coverage looking at Scotland future this week there was something approaching a consensus that independence is a case of ‘when’ and not ‘if’. STV’s excellent documentary, ‘Scotland, what Next?’, included Scotland’s distinguished historian Tom Devine opining that the UK lacks the ‘statesmen of mastery and vision’ to save it. Commentator David Torrance took the point even further in the Financial Times, arguing that a vote for independence is both inevitable and the only way that unionists will be able to set out a vision to match that of nationalists.
You would think then that all this makes a second referendum inevitable and its outcome a foregone conclusion. But, as Andy Maciver argued convincingly here last week, that’s far from the case.
The key, as ever, is public opinion. Nicola Sturgeon was right in saying at First Minister’s Questions that polling since the referendum has consistently shown support for ‘Yes’ at higher levels than the 45% achieved a year ago. But I would sound two notes of caution: firstly, support for independence was also near 50% in some polls before the referendum and, secondly, recent polls are obviously being conducted when we are not actually in a referendum campaign.
Despite the heightened rhetoric this week my sense is that the First Minister would want to see support for independence grow much more substantially and consistently before being confident of winning #indyref2. And, of course, if the battle is lost again the issue is unlikely to be revisited again in the foreseeable future (probably!)
Sporting distractions
If referendum reminiscing isn’t your thing then there are plenty of sporting distractions to be had this week. The Rugby World Cup, marketed as the world’s third biggest sporting event begins today. As usual expectations for Scottish success are modest but at 100/1 at the bookies it may be a tempting longshot.
And in tennis the Davis Cup returns to Glasgow today as the British team meets Australia for a place in the final. The team made the short journey from the Emirates Arena to Celtic Park to take on Celtic in a crossbar challenge. As expected, the footballers won that particular event but it looked like an enjoyable warm-up for the important stuff this weekend.
Now, I wonder what Andy Murray thinks of a second referendum?