One week until the voting numbers game

With less than one week until voters cast their votes in the Northern Ireland Assembly poll, key issues around health and education have emerged from the morass of policy promises and manifesto pledges.

It’s not that the tradition fault lines have been forgotten, just that debates have seen panellists challenged on what could be regarded as mainstream issues.

Indeed, polling data we commissioned from local pollsters LucidTalk shows that education and health, in that order, are consistently coming on top, as the two most important issues for voters.

The fierce debate around abortion has propelled it to among the top five issues that people care about, coming just behind the economy and jobs. In the only part of the UK where the 1967 Act does not apply, there is little appetite to make it an issue among our politicians, unless forced to on the stump.

It has been clear that over the past month, parties have been forced to re-arrange some of their priorities as they go from doorsteps to radio studios. Education has, as mentioned, emerged as the issue the electorate want to talk about, with the DUP and the Ulster Unionists amongst those now pitching to take over from the outgoing Sinn Féin Minister.

Given that one of the last pieces of legislation to be passed by the previous Assembly was on special educational needs, and the various pledges around how to solve the difficulties around the ‘statementing’ process, it is clear that whatever party seizes the education portfolio will have to deliver quickly.

Equally the new Health Minister will have a series of urgent matters to deal with, including the growing waiting lists.

However, this is the first time that mental health has appeared as such a priority for many parties. It was an issue that appeared regularly in Assembly questions and it features prominently in all the manifestos.

When voters are placing the numbers beside their favourite candidates (Northern Ireland uses a single transferable vote proportional representation system) one of the issues coming into play is the post of First Minister.

For the DUP it is seen as a red line when voting has concluded. Their stance as unionists could be seen as compromised should nationalist Sinn Féin emerge as the party with the most MLAs and, as a consequence, secure the top job. While the First Minister and deputy First Minister are in effect co-equals, symbolism can mean everything in Northern Ireland. Some of the DUP posters around the eighteen Assembly constituencies are urging unionist voters to make sure Arlene Foster will be returned as First Minister.

From the Sinn Féin point-of-view, Martin McGuiness has said that should his party score highest in the MLA headcount, he will seek legislation to change the name of the top posts to ‘Joint First Minister’.

As the biggest parties vie for the top slots, there is one set of candidates who, even if they are elected to the Assembly, will be kicked out of their party…

It has long been UK Labour Party policy not to stand candidates in Northern Ireland. Eight Labour Party members are running under the banner of the Northern Ireland Labour Representation Committee. And, the national Labour Party has threatened to expel them if they continue, which seems part of Labour’s plans to win friends and influence people…