2025: A year in review, writes Richard Griffiths
If we had to sum up 2025 in a single word, “adaptation” might be the one that best describes it. In a year that began with Donald Trump taking office again, businesses, governments and citizens have been adapting to a series of geopolitical and technological shifts.
In the UK, the rising popularity of Reform UK became a focus not only for voters disillusioned with the traditional two-party system but also for business leaders, who in 2025 started to weigh up the reputational risk of engaging a party with an anti-immigration stance that was once seen as an outlier. Politics and business seemed to become more intertwined than ever.
As for the technological shifts, 2025 saw the continued rise of AI and its deepest impact on the way we work to date. Major international tech companies like Microsoft, Nvidia and OpenAI invested billions more in UK infrastructure and research labs this year. New investments were announced alongside the US President’s second state visit to Britain in September. One thing that didn’t change was the importance of timing.
And while most newsrooms continued to face budget pressures in 2025, the year also brought into focus the powerful role of top-tier media for reputation building, given AI’s reliance on credible, third-party sources like news articles and expert commentary to build trust. The power of authoritative earned media is back.
Before our experts make their predictions for 2026 - we’ll take a look at who came closest 12 months ago…
Back in December 2024, former government adviser Fraser Raleigh proved to be bang on when he highlighted that the test for the then-new Labour government would be whether it could “unlock economic growth”. Growth continues to be the government’s central mission, but it proved to be lacklustre in 2025. Labour’s standing in the polls has slipped.
Alistair Kellie believed we would see AI taking an even bigger part in defining corporate reputation with businesses “fending off ever-more elaborate activist campaigns”, some of which he argued might be nothing more than an illusion. Looking back on the last 12 months, several examples of this did come to pass. In one incident ahead of the COP30 climate conference, fake videos circulated online of flooding suggested the host city of Belém was unfit for the summit.
And bravo to our Financial Advisory & Transactions team. One year ago, Bob Huxfordsaw optimism in 2025 for the UK financial markets with falling interest rates and a strengthening economy. While growth may still be tentative, 2025 is ending with the FTSE 100 up by around one-fifth on where it started in January. In December the Bank of England cut interest rates again, bringing the Bank rate down to its lowest level since 2023.
No pressure, then, on our team for their 2026 predictions. So, what do SEC Newgate’s crystal ball gazers think might be next?
Politics and regulatory change
Fraser Raleigh predicts all eyes next year will be on Nigel Farage and Reform UK: “In 2026 we will get clearer signals about whether we really are in a multi-party political world, with big consequences for how businesses adjust their corporate affairs strategies.”
If Reform UK can break through in the local and devolved elections - particularly Wales - then it will be taken as a sign to business that they really could be on course to win in Westminster.
This will focus as much on what a Nigel Farage-led government could mean for their sectors as on what the existing Labour government will do to try and stop it. It would also be a tipping point for businesses which have held back from engaging to shift their approach.
What Labour does is likely to involve semi-permanent agonising about whether to remove Keir Starmer or hold onto him for fear of worse. While opinion among Labour MPs has hardened against him in recent months, there is no unifying candidate that MPs see as the obvious replacement, which may cause them to hesitate.
A year ahead of realignment with significant business implications
2026 is seen by many in the team as one likely to be characterised by a further reset as businesses and organisations continue to adjust to the second Trump presidency.
Andrew Adie says: “This year has seen a major pivot in business confidence and geopolitical norms as the Trump Presidency has driven a re-set in trading relations, a rolling back of ESG and a heightening of the grey war between Russia, China and the West and all of that has significant implications for business.”
The roll-back on ESG has reached a high point in cynicism and we expect to see some element of reset in 2026. Business will need to set a narrative and try to influence political thinking to ensure that investment into sustainable projects - which reduce flood risk, safeguard supply chains, ensure long-term development of resilient infrastructure - can continue without falling into an umbrella bucket of ‘net zero’ which will inevitably result in them being heavily challenged if not cancelled.
Tim Le Couillard also highlights the opportunity in 2026 for reframing narratives around sustainable business: “I can see debates around nature and biodiversity being recast as strategic assets - think ‘natural capital’ and ‘ecosystem services’, ‘adaptation’ and ‘future‑proofing’, rather than ‘mitigation’ with ‘energy security’ deepening into ‘energy sovereignty’.”
Realignment is picked up on by another of our sages, Alistair Kellie, who sees us adjusting to profound structural shifts in society, markets, politics, and technology where long-standing norms and assumptions are being reconfigured.
He argues: “Looking ahead, businesses will have to reconsider how they communicate and how they can stay relevant in a world where trust will be hard earned and easily lost through technologically driven issues. Nik Gowing, the former broadcaster and author of ‘Thinking the Unthinkable’, believes that business leaders need to reconcile the unthinkable versus optimism for the future.”
Allie Renison highlights that 2026 will see a rise in “coalitions of the willing” as countries seek progress on trade, foreign affairs, and security where global cooperation falters.
“State capitalism and government intervention in the economy are accelerating, with managed trade and industrial policy becoming the norm rather than the exception,” she says, adding that this trend is redefining the boundaries between free markets and state control, with significant consequences for global commerce.
Meanwhile, foreign policy is becoming more openly transactional and, Allie points out, geopolitics is now widely recognised as a core business risk for corporates.
Outlook for international markets
Bob Huxford believes buoyancy will continue for investors: “International markets have had a fantastic year despite Trump's best attempt to sink them back in April.”
Many people have talked about this being driven by overexuberance in investment into AI and that we are now in bubble territory. However, there are no AI companies on, for example, the FTSE 100, and it's up 18% year to date.
Alongside this we're seeing increasing spending in Europe, particularly in the defence sector, which could benefit many London listed companies. Our broker contacts also tell us they’re having conversations with an increasing number of companies regarding potentially listing in London.
Bob concludes: “Barring any seismic geopolitical upsets, I believe the future for UK markets looks bright.”
While acknowledging the year’s rise in equities, Dafydd Rees cautions around the risks of the AI bubble and potential contagion: “The bets being made are big. Really big. By 2030 the US Big Tech companies have promised to spend $5 trillion on AI infrastructure. The revenues and profits from that investment depend on big dollops of optimism about the future demand and the profits to be made. Where the money is coming from to fund that AI investment is also important. Is it cashflow or is it debt?”
Consumer confidence
Megan Rees remains more sanguine about the outlook - and for the housing market in particular as falling interest rates start to feed through: “After a year of political turbulence in 2025, marked by Trump-era tariffs, interest rate hikes, and the highly anticipated Autumn Budget, many buyers and investors sat on their hands for the majority of the year, waiting for clarity.”
In 2026, it’s expected these buyers will re-enter the market as conditions stabilise. Interest rates are forecast to ease slightly, offering modest relief for affordability. Home prices should see slow, sustainable growth of 1-4%, supported by gradual inventory improvements.
While regional disparities will persist, renewed confidence and pent-up demand could drive a more active market.
Pensions and savings
2025 was a transformative year for pensions, says Sara Neidle, with major reforms reshaping both defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC) schemes: “Surplus release remains front and centre, and 2026 will be pivotal as we gain clarity on how excess capital can and cannot be deployed.”
On the DC side, Sara highlights the impact of the Pension Schemes Bill, which willreshape the landscape over the next decade: “The journey towards DC megafunds, with greater consolidation expected in 2026, will bring sharper focus on enabling people to save more for retirement.”
But urgent action is still needed from both government and industry to secure “a brighter, more secure future for pension savers”.
Technological transparency
Anthony Hughes highlights the opportunities for businesses and organisations in becoming more transparent around how they use AI: “The effects of AI are likely to be uneven but those that reject AI, or disclose and audit its use with visible rigour, may find themselves rewarded.”
What is certain is that in 2026, for politicians, the media, communicators and corporates alike, credibility will become a managed asset - something that is planned for, invested in, measured and defended. No longer a happy by‑product of a good press day. It will be earned through openness, authenticity and steady habits, and, like a good umbrella in London, most valuable when the weather turns.
Alice Cho believes the deepening impact of AI on organisations will raise new questions for the C-suite. “As AI-driven decisions scale, ethical leadership will depend on whether values are reflected in governance, technology and culture. Integrity needs to hold for trust to be maintained.”
An adaptation of media models
As the year draws to a close, one of the biggest takeovers in the history of media and entertainment - the battle for control of Warner Bros Discovery, owner of CNN - is in play between Netflix and a hostile bid from Paramount. The contours of the media and entertainment landscape are being redrawn.
Simon Donahue observes an industry under continued pressure but also spots opportunities for brands and organisations to communicate their message: “The few green shoots of growth seem to be among independent subscriber-based newsletter publishers, with The Mill, in Manchester, leading the charge.”
In 2026, few media organisations will see their reputation tested as severely as the BBC. Laurence Hill notes: “The BBC’s relevance as a national institution remains profound, but like the NHS, the BBC is being asked to justify its scale, culture and funding model under relentless pressure to change. But, after a bruising year, a BBC that is openly battling for its future may yet rediscover public goodwill, reminding audiences why it matters in the first place.”
This all means that brands, businesses and individuals will have to work harder than ever to leverage any advantage from media relations activity or find entirely new ways to reach their target audiences.
Summary from SEC Newgate UK CEO, Emma Kane
As we look ahead to 2026, it’s clear that the only certainty is continued change. The past year has demanded agility and resilience from all of us, as businesses, governments and individuals have navigated a world shaped by shifting political landscapes, technological leaps, and new risks and opportunities at every turn. The predictions and insights shared by our team in this outlook reflect the complexity of the environment we operate in, and the need for bold, thoughtful leadership.
At SEC Newgate, we believe that business has a vital role to play as a force for positive change. The challenges we face, whether in geopolitics, sustainability, or the rapid evolution of AI, require us to engage with clarity, courage and purpose. This is not a time for hesitation or half-measures. It is a time for businesses to step forward, understand the risks and responsibilities within their ecosystems, and communicate their strategies with impact and authenticity.
I am especially proud that, in 2025, we took a significant step in our commitment to international partnership and positive impact by opening our new office in Kyiv. Launching SEC Newgate Ukraine is not just a milestone for our business, it is a testament to our belief in the power of connection, resilience, and hope, even in the most challenging circumstances. I am deeply grateful to our team in Kyiv and across the world for their dedication, and to our clients and partners for their trust and collaboration.
As we enter 2026, let’s continue to embrace change, champion innovation, and work together to build a more sustainable, inclusive and successful future. Thank you for your support and partnership over the past year. I wish you and your loved ones a peaceful, healthy, and fulfilling year ahead.