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Cratus 23

Will Torness, client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.

Police Scotland will increase security around Jewish institutions following Sunday’s tragic mass shooting at a Hannukah celebration on Australia’s Bondi Beach. Political leaders across the UK have condemned the heinous attacks, which killed at least 15 people, and have expressed solidarity with Jewish communities.

Keir Starmer will meet EU leaders today to discuss a potential ceasefire between Russian and Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signalled Ukraine would be willing to drop its ambition to join NATO if provided security guarantees. Meanwhile, the United States has pushed Zelenskyy to accept a series of concessions sought by Russia, suggesting a Christmas deadline for Ukraine to accept the terms.

At Holyrood, justice secretary, Angela Constance, will likely survive a no-confidence vote with help from the Greens. Opposition parties claim she misled parliament by misrepresenting the position of Professor Alexis Jay, a leading expert on grooming gangs. This political drama will likely continue through the week, as both Jay and Constance will give evidence to the Education committee on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to cut the interest rate to 3.75%, the lowest it has been in nearly three years, fuelled by a predicted a drop in inflation along with other signs of a cooling economy.

In brief - Scotland's economy and business

  • An Australian-based medical cannabis company is expanding into Scotland, announcing it will open a manufacturing and distribution facility in the Scottish Borders at the end of next year. Supported by a grant of nearly £350,000 and another £500,000 loan from South of Scotland Enterprise, Breathe Life Sciences expects to create 36 jobs initially, growing to a workforce of 100 in three years.
     
  • The Halley Stevensons factory in Dundee may look unassuming on the outside, but inside it is home to one of Scotland’s under-the-radar success stories. The employee-owned factory supplies some of the world’s most iconic brands like Barbour, Patagonia, Gucci and Prada with the waterproof fabric it has produced for 115 years. Its product is so in-demand, it has seen turnover increase by 36% year-on-year to more than £14m.
     
  • Scottish Financial Enterprise’s chief executive, Sandy Begbie, is challenging SNP ministers to make bold changes to its income tax thresholds in next month’s budget. Reported by The Scotsman (£), Begbie has issued a series of proposals which include offering overseas talent lower tax rates and realigning Scotland’s tax bands with the rest of the UK. He argues these changes would demonstrate competitiveness, predictability and confidence to investors and set Scotland on a clearer path to economic growth.
     
  • Scotland’s Instagrammable North Coast 500 route is the focus of a new economic and environmental impact report, which will analyse the impact of tourism and address concerns raised by community members. Alan Simpson writes in The Herald (£) that NC550 Ltd., which promotes the scenic road trip, will conduct the study to examine how best to balance economic gains with quality of life and make tourism more sustainable for Highland communities.

OpinioNation - columns of interest

  • Is the UK’s pessimism a warranted reflection of economic weakness or a self-fulfilling prophecy? In the Financial Times (£), Chris Giles suggests the Bank of England’s statistics have understated economic growth over the past several years, with growth ultimately outperforming forecasts. He also says we shouldn’t be surprised that more people are saving rather than spending due to the prevailing and incessant narrative of economic decline.
  • With liberal democracy in global decline, Matthew Syed of The Times (£) gives a timely defence of the imperfect democratic system. He writes that democracy’s enduring appeal is evident in the widespread preference for democratic structures and the opportunities they afford, evidenced by migration patterns and international surveys, and urges those of us privileged to live within these systems to take better stock of their benefits – despite their flaws.
  • John Harris looks to data to offer a more hopeful perspective on our collective screen behaviour. He suggests in a column for The Guardian that 2025 marked a shift away from a screen-obsessed world toward human connection, pointing to nightclubs banning phones, a decline of dating app usage, and an overall drop in social media consumption by young users, arguing there are signs that humans are looking for authentic experiences in real life.

Shifting the dial - recent research

The latest Understanding Business survey, released on Friday by Charlotte Street Partners and The Diffley Partnership, found that 46% of Scottish business leaders say they would pay for high-quality journalism focused on businesses operating in Scotland. However, only 29% of respondents report currently paying for a news subscription.                                                    

The survey, which gauged the views of more than 500 business leaders in Scotland on a range of different issues, also shows that many businesses are not yet formalising their policies on artificial intelligence. While 63% of respondents say they believe AI will significantly change their industry, 55% said they currently have no formal AI policy in their business.

The survey tracked a six-point increase in economic pessimism, with most respondents (51%) now saying they believe that the economy is doing worse now than it was a year ago, and 45% believe the economy will be even worse in one year’s time.

The week ahead - fill your diary with key events

Monday  

  •  Westminster
    • House of Commons: Oral questions on defence
    • House of Commons: Consideration of Lords message to the Employment Rights Bill
  •  OECD report on G20 GDP growth published
  •  Rightmove December House Price Index published

Tuesday  

  •  In the Holyrood committee rooms
    • Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee: Evidence on Draft Climate Change Plan
    • Health, Social Care and Sport Committee: Evidence on Non-surgical Procedures and Functions of Medical Reviewers (Scotland) Bill
    • Finance and Public Administration Committee: Evidence on Budget Scrutiny 2026-27
    • Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee: Evidence on Draft Climate Change Plan
  • Scottish Government data
    • Labour market trends for December
    • Scotland quarterly housing statistics
  • Westminster
    • General Committee: debate on the draft Oil and Gas Authority (Carbon Storage and Offshore Petroleum) (Specified Periods for Disclosure of Protected Material) Regulations 2026
    • Culture, Media and Sport Committee: Oral evidence on children’s TV and video content
    • Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee: Oral evidence on the future of farming
  • December employment figures announced

Wednesday  

  • In the Holyrood chamber
    • Portfolio Questions: Rural Affairs, Land Reform and Islands; Health and Social Care
    • Motion on Legislative Consent: Pension Schemes Bill
  • In the Holyrood committee rooms
    • Education Committee: Cabinet Secretary Angela Constance and Professor Jay give evidence
    • Economy and Fair Work Committee: Evidence on Digital Assets (Scotland) Bill
    • Public Audit Committee: Evidence on 2024-25 audit of the Scottish Government Consolidated Accounts
  • Scottish Government data
    • GDP monthly estimate for October
    • UK House Price Index for Scotland
  • Westminster
    • Prime Minister’s Questions
    • Scottish Affairs Committee: Oral evidence on the closure of Mossmorran
  • UK inflation data announced

Thursday  

  •   In the Holyrood chamber
    • First Minister’s Questions
    • Portfolio Questions: Social Justice and Housing
  • Scottish Government data
    • Energy trends for Q3
    • Inflation adjusted HMRC regional trade statistics for Scotland
  • Westminster
    • House of Commons: Oral questions on Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
    • House of Lords: Pensions Schemes Bill second reading
    • House of Lords: Oral evidence on the jobs market and the wider economy
    • The Parliament rises for recess until 5 January 2026
  •  Bank of England interest rate decision announced
  •  British Retail Consortium December Consumer Sentiment Monitor announced
  •  Summit of European leaders to discuss frozen Russian assets proposal

Friday  

  •  The UK’s Christmas number one single will be announced
  •  The Scottish Parliament rises for recess until 4 January 2026
  •  Scottish Government data
    • Business insights and conditions survey 
  •  Deadline for US Justice Department to release the Epstein files