Kaya Gadhia (Consultant) unpacks the latest developments in Westminster and Whitehall – spotlighting the politicians causing a stir, for better or worse.
Read all about it in this week's Who's Top Who's Not.
Top: Hannah Spencer
Westminster woke up to a jolt this morning: the Greens have taken Gordon and Denton, with Hannah Spencer overturning what had previously been a Labour stronghold. The Greens have tripled their vote share compared to 2024, delivering the seventh largest Labour majority ever overturned at a by-election.
Yes, it is “only” a by-election, and yes, incumbent governments have lost them in the past. But not all by-elections are created equal. And this one feels significant.
The result lands awkwardly for Starmer. Labour’s electoral strategy has been heavily oriented at squeezing Reform and neutralising its threat in the red wall and Conservative seats. But while Labour’s gaze has been fixed to the right, it may have neglected movement on its left flank.
The results have shown that voting Green is no longer a “wasted vote” and Labour’s strategy of presenting itslef as the only party that can stop Reform looks dead. Alarm bells should be ringing in Labour HQ.
The May elections will test whether Spencer’s victory is a one-off or something more significant. If the greens can replicate even part of this performance elsewhere, Labour’s majority may begin to look less like a fortress and more like a coalition hanging by a thread.
Middle: Bridget Philipson
Education Secretary Bridget Philipson has unveiled plans to transition around one in eight children currently on the highest level of Special Educational and Needs and Disability (SEND) support onto new plans between 2030 and 2035. The reforms aim to make the SEND system in England more inclusive by signalling a shift away from a model that has seen a growing number of children attend expensive, specialist schools.
On paper, this is prime rebellion territory. After the Welfare Bill wobble, Labour whips have been jumpy about anything that looks like reforming support for vulnerable groups. A SEND revolt feels almost inevitable but so far it hasn’t materialised. Yet.
This is not accidental. Philipson has done the political engagement legwork. By meeting with the Socialist Campaign Group and the soft left Tribune Group in advance, she ensured MPs felt consulted rather than presented with a fait accompli. For now, the PLP is broadly on side, if only because they have been diostracted by myriad other political challenges.
That doesn't mean she’s home and dry. Some backbenchers are already warning about the mental health impact on school leaders and teachers in a sector already stretched thin. This means the success of the reforms will rest on a single, fragile commodity: trust.
Trust from parents that this is not a treasury exercise in disguise. Trust from MPs that this isn’t welfare reform 2.0. And trust from schools that “inclusive” isn’t code for “underfunded”.
WTWN thinks the rebellion has been headed off for now, but the real test is whether trust last longer than the headlines.
Not: Peter Mandelson
There is never a good week for an arrest. There are, however, worse ones.
Peter Mandelson has dominated the headlines this week following his arrest over allegations of misconduct in a public office. Mandelson has strenuously denied wrongdoing. The political damage, however, is not waiting for the verdict.
Timing is everything, and this lands just as labour has been trying to assert itself as the party of integrity and trust as voters went to the polls in Gordon and Denton. Labour’s devastating third place only sharpen the point. A seat once considered the 38th safest for Labour has fallen, and fallen decisively. The scale of the swing suggests voters felt comfortable registering their discontent to the left and the right, sending a clear warning signal to the government.
The deeper issue is not Mandelson’s past, it is Keir Starmer’s judgement. Mandelson’s return to public life was always a calculated risk. But with labour already nursing bruises from U-turns on a number of issues like the two child-benefit cap, winter fuel payments and business rates, it seems that the PM has a track record of poor political judgement. When your message is integrity, you certainly can’t afford a Scandelson.