Most pressing in domestic politics is last week’s shock result in the Gorton and Denton by-election, where the Green Party overturned one of Labour’s safest seats in its first-ever Westminster by-election victory. The breakthrough, under the leadership of Zack Polanski, marks a significant step-change for the party. Victorious candidate Hannah Spencer described the result not as a local protest but as a blueprint for future gains nationwide. Until recently, the Greens’ strongest by-election performance had been a distant third place in Somerset in 2023 with around 10% of the vote; dismantling a commanding Labour majority suggests they can now convert progressive discontent into parliamentary representation.
For Labour, the defeat is a stark reminder that electoral volatility is not confined to the right. While much attention has focused on the rise of Reform UK at the Conservatives’ expense, this contest points to a parallel insurgency on the left. There is little immediate sign of a leadership challenge to Keir Starmer, but senior figures including Angela Rayner have called the result a “wake-up call” and urged a bolder political approach. The by-election was equally grim for the Conservative Party, which secured around 700 votes, lost its deposit and finished only narrowly ahead of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party.
Elsewhere, Cabinet Office minister Josh Simons resigned following controversy over his former leadership of the think tank Labour Together. The dispute centred on claims that the group paid US firm Apco £36,000 to investigate Sunday Times journalists reporting on its activities before the 2024 general election. Although the prime minister’s independent ethics adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus, found Simons had not breached the ministerial code and acted in good faith, he concluded the scope of the contract was broader than Simons had understood and that confirming it too hastily created a damaging perception gap. Allies said his resignation was intended to prevent further distraction to the government.
Despite lots of important domestic events, the escalating Iran conflict is overwhelmingly dominating news headlines and the political agenda. On 28th February, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran after weeks of military build-up. President Donald Trump said the aim was to prevent Tehran acquiring a nuclear weapon and eliminate “imminent threats”, while Israeli officials confirmed strikes in Tehran killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated within hours, firing ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and at US facilities across Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE, rapidly widening the conflict.
By days three and four, the war had expanded further. Israel struck Hezbollah targets in southern Beirut, opening a Lebanese front against Iran’s most powerful regional proxy, while Tehran continued missile and drone attacks across the region, including towards Cyprus, where the UK maintains RAF Akrotiri.
The UK has sought to define its role as active but limited. The Prime Minister’s Office said Britain is acting under Article 51 of the UN Charter in collective self-defence of regional allies, with UK assets intercepting drones and missiles and facilitating specific, defensive US action against Iranian missile sites. However, London has not authorised offensive operations from the UK–US base at Diego Garcia, a decision that reportedly drew “disappointment” from President Trump. Defence Secretary John Healey has confirmed that the UK’s terror threat level is “absolutely” under review as ministers assess the domestic security implications of the widening conflict.
Headlines
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Green party membership in UK passes 200,000 after byelection victory - The Guardian
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UK will allow US to use bases to strike Iranian missile sites, says Starmer - BBC News
- The UK has been dragged into Trump’s Iran war. But what will Starmer do next? - The Independent
What’s on in Parliament
Monday 2nd March
House of Commons
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Oral Questions: Department for Education
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Legislation: Representation of the People Bill - Second Reading
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Westminster Hall Debate: e-petition 734311 relating to the public being given a right to a vote of no confidence
House of Lords
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Oral Questions: Progress made in relation to the (1) implementation, and (2) outcomes, of the Child Poverty Strategy.
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Legislation: Crime and Policing Bill - Report Stage (Day 2)
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Statement: Publication of the draft text of the UK-EU Treaty on Gibraltar (dinner break business)
Tuesday 3rd March
House of Commons
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Oral Questions: Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office
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Statement: Spring Forecast Statement (The Chancellor of the Exchequer)
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Westminster Hall Debate: Strengthening community cohesion
House of Lords
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Oral Questions: Potential impact of the Defence Industrial Strategy 2025 on promoting economic growth and job creation in English regions and devolved nations
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Oral Questions: Policies and plans to deliver Carbon Budget 6
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Legislation: Tobacco and Vapes Bill – Report Stage (Day 2)
Wednesday 4th March
House of Commons
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Prime Minister's Question Time
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Oral Questions: Wales Office
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Westminster Hall Debate: NHS capital spending
House of Lords
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Oral Questions: Reorganisation of local government in England
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Debate: Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the UK and India
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Legislation: Crime and Policing Bill – Report Stage (day 3)
Thursday 5th March
House of Commons
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Oral Questions: Cabinet Office
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Business Statement: Business Questions to the Leader of the House
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Backbench Business: Future of palliative care
House of Lords
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Legislation: Tobacco and Vapes Bill – Report Stage (day 3)
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Oral Questions: 'FAS Plan: building a safer future together' and options for per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances to be banned in all consumer products manufactured or sold in the UK
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Legislation: National Insurance Contributions (Employer Pensions Contributions) Bill - Report Stage
Friday 6th March
House of Commons
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The House will next sit on 9th March.
House of Lords
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Debate: International Women's Day
Consultations
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Growing up in the online world - Closes 26th May
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Proposed changes to the assessment of mathematics, physics and combined science GCSEs - Closes 23rd March
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Make Work Pay: protection from detriments for taking industrial action - Closes 23rd April
Statistics
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Exploring phosphorus concentrations and ecological improvements in English rivers – 2nd March
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The early-stage equity finance journey of potential high-growth companies in the UK – 27th February
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Transforming pastoral livelihoods through market interventions: does the impact match expectations? – 27th February