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The three anti-independence parties at Holyrood, formerly known as Better Together, regularly complain that independence is all the SNP care about. Some might say they themselves are obsessed with that line to the detriment of other issues, but this week there was no question about it. Independence and its relationship to Brexit was indeed the overwhelming focus of business at Holyrood.

On Tuesday the SNP and the Greens combined to pass a pro-independence motion at Holyrood which instructed the Scottish Government to open discussions with Westminster. Specifically, the motion empowers Ministers to request the Section 30 order which would be required before another binding referendum could be held. Last time, all parties agreed that a referendum should be held, but this week the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems voted against, suggesting that an even more fractious debate lies ahead this time.

The Greens and SNP also voted through a supportive Green amendment which backed the inclusion of 16 and 17 year olds and EU nationals in the franchise for any referendum. Both groups had the vote in the first independence vote, but were excluded from the EU referendum last year. Cynics suggest that one reason the Conservatives at Westminster have sought to delay another Scottish vote is that holding it post-Brexit would automatically exclude EU nationals, who voted strongly for the Union in 2014 but have understandably swung markedly in favour of independence.

Holyrood voted just after 5pm, and by 5.16pm the Secretary of State for Scotland had ruled out even negotiating. Ten days earlier his line, and the Prime Minister's, had been the somewhat more conciliatory "not now".

So we reach what looks like an impasse, but on paper the Westminster government holds the trump card: the Section 30 order is in their gift alone. In theory they can sit tight forever on that. The electoral consequences for the Conservatives might be light, too. They overhauled Labour at Holyrood last year partly by promoting themselves as the Union's staunchest defenders and partly on the personal appeal of Ruth Davidson, despite her rather sharp u-turn on this issue.

But no-one thinks referendum talk is going away, given the determination on both sides. Intriguingly, the First Minister has promised a statement after the Easter recess (i.e. April 18th or after, about a fortnight before every Scottish council is up for election) "to set out the steps the Scottish Government will take to progress the will of Parliament." The options for forcing Westminster's hands are limited, although a "work to rule" is being discussed, which could include refusing the legislative consent motions required for parts of the "Great Repeal Bill".

Beyond that? Chatter grows about a snap Scottish election, but even that wouldn't actually guarantee another referendum. The phoney war therefore continues for now, but despite the constitutional position, I'd recommend betting on Nicola Sturgeon, not Theresa May, given these issues are some way down her agenda as she struggles for a Brexit plan.