Dominating this week’s agenda in Westminster is the Budget, with this year’s edition, delivered on Wednesday, expected to be deliberately restrained. Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey is tipped to deliver a ‘do-no-harm’ package rather than make major choices on tax, spending or public service funding. Debate continues around whether this approach constitutes preparations for an early general election, with The Telegraph reporting that Prime Minister Andy Burnham risks spooking the bond markets and triggering a spike in Britain’s borrowing costs if he goes down this path.
Burnham and Healy find themselves in a tight spot with limited fiscal headroom to play with. Public debt has passed £3tn, and the annual interest bill on this debt now exceeds £100bn. Worryingly, 10-year government borrowing costs are around 5.35%, which is approaching levels not seen since 2007.
The one sector that is guaranteed to be a winner in Healy's first Budget is defence, with billions in funding expected that will be financed through long-term borrowing rather than spending cuts. Labour’s manifesto rules out rises in income tax, VAT and employee National Insurance, while Burnham’s wider ambitions, including social-care reform and greater public control of utilities, require funding from somewhere. The Budget may therefore avoid difficult questions, but not resolve them.
The EU question is once again at the centre of British politics after Burnham said he would like to see the UK rejoin in his lifetime. He has, however, ruled out rejoining during this parliament, but promised an “honest discussion” about the future relationship and is expected to set out options at the UK-EU summit on 20 November. Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government Angela Rayner has indicated that closer ties, potentially including free movement, could be put to voters at the next general election.
Despite the notion of rejoining, or at the very least seeking closer alignment, with the EU becoming less controversial as time passes, the Cabinet are not universally in favour of seeking to rejoin the trading bloc. A variety of Secretaries of State disclosed their opinions at last month’s Labour Party Conference, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood saying the price of rejoining the EU "might not be acceptable" and Education Secretary Lucy Powell believing people should not underestimate what a "big task" the government's existing plans for an EU reset would be.
The Conservatives and Reform UK have already attacked the idea of closer ties due to the resulting impacts on immigration and wages. For now, Burnham continues to seek consent on closer ties by consistently raising the issue, but rejoining could become a defining question ahead of the next election.
In another significant political event of the weekend, Brazil’s President Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing senator and son of former President Jair, to win a second consecutive and fourth overall term. The contest was extremely close, with Lula taking about 51.8% of the vote. The result is something of an outlier amongst a trend of rightward drift in Latin American politics, and represents a boost for European leaders seeking cooperation on open trade, multilateralism and climate action, including protection of the Amazon.
Lula’s victory is also likely to strengthen the EU-Brazil relationship and the EU-Mercosur trade agenda, while preserving Brazil’s independent foreign policy and close links with China and BRICS. However, Bolsonaro is contesting the result, and Lula faces a conservative-leaning Congress, making governing and delivering on his international priorities far from straightforward.
Headlines
- 'Boring Budget' would pave way for early election, City fears - The Telegraph
- Chancellor to confirm extra £432m for rough sleeping - Sky News
- London's Oxford Street becoming pedestrian-only marks end of decline, says Khan - BBC News
What's On in Parliament
Monday 26th October
House of Commons
- Oral Questions: Home Office (including Topical Questions)
- General Debate: Performance of Royal Mail
- General Debate: Emerging risks of advanced AI
House of Lords
- Oral Questions: Business plan for British Steel
- Oral Questions: Impact of tax-free shopping on the economy
- Legislation: Cyber Security and Resilience (Network and Information Systems) Bill - report stage
Tuesday 27th October
House of Commons
- Oral Questions: Foreign, Commonwealth and Development (including Topical Questions)
- Legislation: Building Safety (Remediation of Unsafe Cladding etc.,) Bill: Second Reading
- Adjournment: Coordination of services for children in care across local authorities
House of Lords
- Oral Questions: The future of the International Criminal Court
- Oral Questions: Meta's updated Commercial Terms: UK business users and AI development
- Legislation: Armed Forces Bill - third reading
Wednesday 28th October
House of Commons
- Oral Questions: Scotland
- Prime Minister's Question Time
- Financial Statement: The Budget
House of Lords
- Orders and regulations: Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act 2025 (Specified Purposes Related to Policing) Regulations 2026
- Orders and regulations: Housing (Tenancy Deposit Schemes) Order 2026
- Orders and regulations: Human Rights Act 1998 (Remedial) Order 2026
Thursday 29th October
House of Commons
- Oral Questions: Transport
- Business Statement: Business Questions to the Leader of the House
- Financial Statement: Continuation of the Budget Debate
House of Lords
- Oral Questions: Business confidence among small and medium-sized enterprises in the AI sector
- Debate: Ofcom's register of categorised services and the Online Safety Act
- Debate: Implementation and impact of Personal Independence Payment
Friday 30th October
- The House of Commons and The House of Lords are not sitting, and will next sit on Monday 2nd November
Consultations
- Equal pay and pay discrimination - Closes 27th October
- New prison in Lancashire - Closes 1st November
- Small Pots: a pathway for pension consolidation - Closes 17th November
Statistics
- Wholesale fruit and vegetable prices - Published 26th October
- Police recorded crime and outcomes - Published 22nd October 2026
- UK House Price Index: August 2026 - Published 21st October