The government is facing a tough start to the week, with Labour losing in a crucial Senedd by-election, Lucy Powell winning the Labour Deputy Leadership contest weeks after being sacked by Keir Starmer, and a mishap in the justice system causing a flurry of embarrassing headlines.
Caerphilly has been a stronghold for Labour since it was created 1918 and the Senedd’s establishment in 1993. Now, it appears Labour has been punished for underperforming in government, with both Plaid Cymru and Reform outperforming Labour, who received just 3500 votes. The only positive for the government is that Reform did not win, therefore stifling their electoral momentum and slightly easing fears of Reform humiliating Labour in next year’s local elections.
Back in Westminster, Lucy Powell has been elected as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party in an online election that received a turnout of just 16%. Powell was removed from Keir Starmer’s cabinet just seven weeks ago, and the Prime Minister would likely have favoured Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson to triumph. But, Powell’s platform, focusing on ‘progressive change’ and returning the party to its key manifesto promises, proved appealing among Labour members who widely feel their representatives have become rudderless in government.
Meanwhile, Justice Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy will be delivering a statement today that seeks to address the accidental release, and subsequent manhunt, of an asylum seeker who was found guilty of sexual assault of a 14-year-old. Lammy is expected to announce an inquiry, and Nigel Farage has spotted an opportunity to reinforce Reform’s position on law and order by delivering a statement at 2 pm.
However, Reform is not free from scrutiny either, given MP Sarah Pochin appeared on Talk TV and declared, “it drives me mad when I see adverts full of black people, full of Asian people”. She later apologised, adding her comments were “phrased poorly” but insisted many adverts are “unrepresentative of British society”.
Internationally, Javier Milei has won in Argentina’s midterm elections, taking just over half of the Senate and the lower house. Ukraine has suffered another week of heavy aerial attacks from Russia, and the US government shutdown enters its fourth week, with food assistance for more than 40 million Americans expected to run out in the next week.
Today, Keir Starmer is in Turkey meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a trip focusing on defence, security and growth. It’s expected these discussions will result in an agreement involving a multi-billion-pound deal to sell 40 Typhoon fighter jets to Turkey. This would strengthen Britain's ties with a powerful actor in the Middle East at a fraught time in the East.
Headlines
- Home Office squandered billions on asylum hotels, MPs say – BBC News
- US expects China to delay rare earth export controls as trade deal nears – Financial Times
- NHS leaders warn of longer waiting times if demand for extra £3bn not met – The Guardian
What’s on in Parliament
Monday 27th October
House of Commons
- Oral question: Work and Pensions (including Topical Questions)
- Legislation: Victims and Courts Bill: remaining stages
- Confirmation of new appointments to Select Committees
House of Lords
- Oral questions: National security threat to undersea cables connected to the UK
- Oral questions: Reviewing measures related to non-crime hate incidents
- Legislation: Tobacco and Vapes Bill – committee stage (day 1)
Tuesday 28th October
House of Commons
- Oral questions: Foreign, Commonwealth and Development (including Topical Questions)
- Westminster Hall Debate: Opposition Day Debate (Subject to be announced)
- Westminster Hall Debate: World Stroke Day 2025
House of Lords
- Oral questions: Ensuring employers are encouraged to support people with disabilities into employment
- Urgent Question Repeat: Role of the Attorney General’s Office in the decision to drop the China spy prosecution
- Statement: Heathrow Expansion: Launch of the Airports National Policy Statement Review
Wednesday 29th October
House of Commons
- Oral questions: Wales (including Topical Questions)
- Prime Minister’s Question
House of Lords
- Oral questions: UK-EU youth mobility scheme
- Oral questions: Social cost of leaving England’s water companies in private ownership
Thursday 30th October
House of Commons
- Oral questions: Business and Trade (including Topical Question)
- Business Statement: Business Questions to the Leader of the House
House of Lords
- Oral questions: Ensuring any reformed national curriculum includes religious education in a form which promotes mutual understanding
- Oral questions: Social cost of leaving England’s water companies in private ownership
- Legislation: Tobacco and Vapes Bill – committee stage (day 2)
Friday 31st October
House of Commons
- The House of Commons is not sitting.
House of Lords
- Debate: Situation in Ukraine
Consultations
- Priorities of the Business and Trade Committee for 2026 – closes 14th November
- Drought Preparedness – closes 24th November
- Routes to Settlement – closes 2nd December
Statistics and Research
- Crime outcomes year to June 2025: data tables – 23rd October
- Greenhouse gas emissions, UK: provisional estimates 2024 – 24th October
- UK trade, quarterly goods and services: April to June 2025 – 24th October