Rebecca Mason, Associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
As the long winter nights set in after the clocks went back on Sunday, Labour was met with an early dose of political darkness over the weekend.
A catastrophic third-place defeat at the Caerphilly by-election on Friday has been described by health secretary Wes Streeting in The Sunday Times as this Labour government’s “Hartlepool moment,” likening parallels to Labour’s loss to the Conservatives in the by-election in 2021.
With Reform securing second place with 12,113 votes, and newly elected Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell using her victory speech on Saturday to criticise prime minister Keir Starmer for allowing “Farage and his ilk” to dominate the political agenda, the result has prompted fear within the party that it is losing support to not only right-wing rivals but competing forces on the left.
As the Scottish Parliament returns from recess today, those same anxieties are likely to be felt north of the border.
New polling commissioned by IPPR Scotland think tank ahead of its 10thanniversary conference on Wednesday puts Reform on course to become the second biggest party in Holyrood after the 2026 election. SNP lead on 34% of the constituency vote, Reform rising to 22%, and Labour falling behind at 18%. This marks the first time Farage’s party has placed second on both constituency and regional lists.
Meanwhile, U.S. president Donald Trump has arrived in Asia for a five-day diplomatic tour that will include a high anticipated meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping on Thursday their first since 2019. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the two nations have established a “substantial framework” for discussion, with trade expected to dominate talks later this week as both sides seek to ease tensions following months of threats from tariffs and export restrictions.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Two proposed AI data centres at Currie and South Gyle could consume as much energy as around 1.3 million homes - equivalent to powering five cities the size of Edinburgh, The National reported. Environmental campaigners have raised concerns, highlighting that the Labour-run local authority does not require the companies to include environmental impact assessments in their planning applications.
In The Scotsman, The Confederation of Passenger Transport (CPT) has launched a new manifesto ahead of the next Holyrood election, urging politicians for funding reforms and improved road infrastructure to make public transport more efficient. CPT note that even an 8% improvement on bus speeds could add £565m to Scotland’s economy, totalling £5.9bn annually.
More than 2,000 North Sea oil jobs are at risk after Petrofac filed for administration following financial challenges linked to past bribery offences and the loss of key contracts, reported Daily Business. The energy services firm will continue trading while administrators work with creditors to pursue restructuring or M&A options.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
What’s holding back Scotland’s long-awaited just transition to a sustainable, net-zero economy? According to Nick Robins, member of Scotland’s Just Transition Commission, the answer is investment – in scale and quality. Writing in The Herald, Robins highlights that with the correct policy frameworks and forward-thinking financial approaches, Scotland can unlock high quality jobs opportunities and long-term shared benefits for society.
From growers in Aberdeenshire to policymakers in Brussels, Gavin Prentice argues in The Scotsman that “what happens in Scotland’s potato fields matters to everyone.” He notes that despite mounting challenges from climate change, rising costs, and post-Brexit trade disruptions, resilience, collaboration and targeted investment in the sector will enable Scotland’s potato industry to protect its futureand maintain its global standing.
How did late adolescent children, menopausal women, and those with existing sleep phase disorders fare this weekend? According to Professor John Groeger in The Independent, they likely slept worse than most, as he explains how the autumn clock change disrupts our bodies and why its impact varies around population groups.
Shifting the dial - recent research
A new poll by the Diffley Partnership, for think tank Enlighten, found that 93% of Scots believe the NHS needs reform, with 77% warning it will worsen within a decade without change and 50% supporting a greater role for the private sector.
Released ahead of a major health conference in Edinburgh today, with health secretary Neil Gray a keynote speaker, the findings have prompted calls for health leaders and politicians for an urgent national conversation on sustainable funding, reform of health and social care, and how to modernise an increasingly overstretched system.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Work and Pensions (including Topical Questions)
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Topical Questions
- Stage 3 Proceedings: Land Reform (Scotland) Bill
- Business Motions
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Finance and Public Administration Committee will take evidence on cost-effectiveness of Scottish public inquiries
- Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will take evidence on Sustainable Aviation Fuel Bill (UK Parliament) - legislative consent memorandum LCM-S6-61 and wider issues around the production and use of SAF in Scotland; take evidence on the Equality Act 2010 (Special Duties) (Scotland) Amendment Regulations 2025
- Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee will take evidence from COSLA and CIPFA as part of its Pre-Budget Scrutiny
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Scottish Government data
- Scotland’s Cladding Remediation Programme update: Q3 2025
- Short Term Lets Licensing Statistics Scotland to 30 June 2025
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Foreign, Commonwealth and Development (including Topical Questions)
- Westminster Hall debate: Connected and automated vehicles
- Scottish Affairs Committee – Oral evidence: Proposed STV cuts
- Science, Innovation and Technology Committee – Oral evidence: Life sciences investment
- Education Committee – Oral evidence: Reinforced Autoclaved Aerated Concrete (RAAC) and management of school estates
- UK: Chancellor Rachel Reeves to speak at Future Investment Imitative in Saudi Arabia
- US: President Donald Trump to visit Japan and meeting with new prime minister Sanae Takaichi
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
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Portfolio Questions
- Deputy First Minister Responsibilities, Economy and Gaelic
- Finance and Local Government
- Stage 3 Proceedings: Land Reform (Scotland) Bill
- Business Motions
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Portfolio Questions
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Rural Affairs and Islands Committee will take evidence on Crofting and Scottish Land Court Bill
- Economy and Fair Work Committee will take evidence from Consumer Scotland
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Scottish Government data
- GDP Monthly Estimate 2025 M8 August
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Wales (including Topical Questions)
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Scottish Affairs Committee – Oral evidence: Industrial transition in Scotland
- Treasury Committee – Oral evidence: Budget 2025
- Energy Security and Net Zero Committee – Oral evidence: UK refineries and the role of oil and gas
- UK: Deadline for UK government to deliver its Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- General Questions
- First Minister’s Questions
- Portfolio Questions
- Stage 1 Debate: Natural Environment (Scotland) Bill
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Business and Trade (including Topical Questions)
- Public Accounts Committee – Oral evidence: DWP follow-up: Autumn 2025
- US: Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to meet in South Korea
Friday
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Scottish Government data
- Planning Application Statistics, 2024 – 25 Year end and annual
- Halloween