The outcome of the 2015 General Election is fast becoming the most unpredictable to call for a generation. The trend away from the UK’s traditional two-party system (dominated by the Conservatives and Labour) appears set to continue. Whilst Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll – published earlier this week – clearly makes for uncomfortable reading for Labour (putting the party on 29% – 1 point behind the Conservatives), it is the combined vote share of the two main parties that may prove to have important implications come May next year.
Ashcroft’s poll gives the two main parties less than 60% of the total vote share between them, highlighting the difficulty either party will face in achieving an overall majority at the next election. Put simply, there is a growing consensus that neither Labour or the Conservatives are attracting sufficient support to be able to govern on their own after the election. Instead the two main parties are being buffeted by a growing plurality within British politics, denting their levels of support and creating huge levels of uncertainty regarding individual seats – as Frank Field articulated after Labour’s recent scare in the Heywood & Middleton by-election, if UKIP maintain their ‘assault…all bets are off for safer, let alone marginal seats’.
So what is happening? The rise of UKIP has long been documented and is clearly wounding the Conservatives. In key marginal seats, Ashcroft highlights that UKIP is polling in the region of 20% to 30%, resulting in a swing to Labour and projected losses of Conservative held seats. With the defection and re-election of Douglas Carswell (and with the Mark Reckless test yet to come for the Conservatives), UKIP have been given a greater level of ‘respectability’ with a presence in the Commons. However, Labour is not immune from the UKIP threat. Particularly in areas of the north, where Conservative support is weak, UKIP is building a position as the alternative to Labour – particularly among Labour voters who feel the current leadership no longer represents their views and interests.
Equally, Labour faces its own fight to maintain support. The positioning of the Greens as an authentic voice of the Left is attracting voters that feel the party isn’t sufficiently articulating an alternative programme for government. However, it is arguably trouble in Scotland and Wales that could prove disastrous to Miliband’s chances of reaching Number 10. Despite the independence referendum result, the SNP is reaping the benefits of an electorate dissatisfied with a Labour Party it believes is controlled by Westminster and without a distinctively Scottish tinge. Labour’s Scottish base of support – and the MPs it returns to Westminster – are vital for the party’s success in 2015, and SNP inroads into these seats severely limit the chances of a Labour success. At the same time, Labour is facing the problems of incumbency in Wales – where the party’s track record in power is coming under greater scrutiny (a recent focus on the Welsh Government’s approach to the NHS, generating hugely critical headlines, provides one example of this). The challenge for Labour in Wales is to convince voters that they are the change that is required – a difficult task when voters are already used to a Labour administration in Cardiff and may decide to look elsewhere (Plaid Cymru, for example).
All of this means the lead-up to the 2015 General Election has the potential to take on strange dimensions, with Labour hoping that UKIP success damages the Conservatives in key marginals and the Conservatives hoping for a Labour meltdown at the hands of the SNP north of the border.
This increased plurality and the potential fragmentation of the vote in May creates huge uncertainty as to the form of government the UK will have after the election. In the event of another hung parliament, attention will need to be given to potential coalitions and alliances that could generate workable governing majorities (reports that the Conservatives are informally sounding out the DUP as to potential electoral pacts are an early example of this). Of course, with approximately six months still to go before the election this could all still change. If not, the emergence of a genuine multi-party state in the UK may make the current Conservative – Liberal Democrat coalition appear straightforward come the 8th May 2015.