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Both the Conservative and Labour leadership will be approaching the next couple of months – filled with local elections and the EU referendum campaign – with a degree of trepidation. Mutterings of the phrase ‘leadership election’ have begun to circulate among political commentators and observers in Westminster. Conceivably, both Cameron and Corbyn could be facing a challenge to their positions from their respective MPs in the not-too-distant future.
For Cameron, the EU referendum campaign is proving to re-open the splits and animosities within the Conservative parliamentary party on the issue of Europe. Whilst the rancour is yet to descend to 1990s levels of open warfare, the campaign has brought about a bout of ‘blue-on-blue’ infighting that hasn’t been witnessed for a number of years. To an extent, this is understandable. Whilst many people (notably the public) are somewhat baffled by the passions aroused by the EU, for many Conservative MPs Euroscepticism is an issue of principle. This passion is being increased by what the Brexiteers perceive to be the underhand tactics employed by the Remain camp and – in particular – the Conservative leadership. The decision to spend £9m on a publicly funded pro-EU pamphlet and the publication of a Treasury report into the costs to households of leaving the EU are seen by anti-EU Tories as at best unfair and at worst, a betrayal.
The situation is culminating in reports that backbench Conservative MPs are spoiling for a showdown with Cameron after the referendum is out the way – regardless of the result. In the event of a vote to leave, it would be very difficult (despite his protestations to the contrary) for Cameron to stay on. However, with some backbenchers unhappy at how the Remain camp has handled the campaign, there are suggestions that a rump of Tory MPs will seek to force a leadership election following the referendumirrespective of the outcome.
For Corbyn, the multitude of elections taking place on 5th May could further ratchet-up the discontent within the parliamentary party. Given the rough ride the government has had over the past six months (including having to back down on tax credit reform and disability payments cuts) the expectation would normally be for Labour to do well. However, outside of London (where Sadiq Khan is looking the strong favourite to win the Mayoralty) things do not appear too rosy, particularly at a local authority level where it is being briefed that the party could lose around 150 seats across various councils. As already nervous Labour MPs are highly aware, this would not be the result of a party heading for general election success in 2020. The mutterings against Corbyn and the wider Labour leadership would likely increase with a view to seeking to salvage the party before it’s too late.
Are we headed for a round of leadership challenges? On balance this is probably an extreme view at the moment. Whilst there are certainly malcontents in both the Conservatives and Labour, it’s debateable whether this is strong enough to spill over into a leadership fight. For the Conservatives, it is barely 12 months since Cameron led the party to an unexpected electoral success – a level of good-will remains. Large-scale efforts will go into reuniting the party post-referendum and it remains to seen how big the base of disgruntled MPs is in reality. For Corbyn, the changing make-up of the wider party membership creates a barrier between him and those MPs who wish to topple him. It remains the case that deposing of Corbyn would be deemed to be going against the views of the membership. It is unclear, at the moment, whether there is a Labour candidate willing to take on the burgeoning Corbynite Momentum movement within the party.