Aoife Hollywood, senior client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Thursday marks six months until the Holyrood election, and all eyes are on Reform UK as it positions itself for a potential breakthrough. The latest polls suggest the party could return 22 MSPs, challenging the SNP and reshaping the balance of power. As Andrew Learmonth explores in The Herald, Reform MSP Graham Simpson is working to “professionalise” incoming members, preparing them to navigate parliamentary scrutiny and legislation despite limited experience.
Dr Judith Sijstermans of the University of Aberdeen warns that Reform UK could disrupt debate and shift the political conversation toward a new right-wing nationalism, even as Holyrood’s institutions themselves are expected to remain resilient.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is set to deliver the final major interest rate decision of the current cycle on Thursday. Most forecasters expect the base rate to remain at 4%, though the vote could be close, and some see scope for a 25-basis-point cut. Stronger-than-expected growth data, including Friday’s rise in the Lloyds Business Barometer, alongside falling inflation and weak private sector hiring, may be enough to justify keeping rates on hold.
Globally, nearly 100 mayors are meeting in Rio de Janeiro today for the three-day C40 World Mayors Summit, joined by business leaders, investors, and academics. Chaired by Rio’s mayor Eduardo Paes and London’s Sir Sadiq Khan, the gathering will spotlight urban leadership on climate action and pave the way for the UN climate conference.
COP30 then begins in Belém, Brazil, with the heads-of-state summit on 6–7 November, ahead of the main conference from 10–21 November. UK prime minister Keir Starmer is confirmed to attend, highlighting his commitment to net zero as “the economic opportunity of the 21st century,” while Scotland’s cabinet secretary for climate action and energy, Gillian Martin, is also attending.
Experts have described COP30 as the most significant climate summit since COP21 in Paris, with the UK delegation showcasing green policies, including renewed support for onshore wind and investments in clean energy, even as the government balances domestic concerns over energy bills.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
House prices in Glasgow are rising faster than the Scottish average, reported Daily Business. The city’s average price has grown 5% to around £218,000 so far in 2025, outpacing Edinburgh and Dundee, which have increased by just 1%, while Aberdeen has declined 1.2%. Rettie forecasts a 3% rise in Scottish prices for the full year and a 5% increase in transactions, supported by lower mortgage rates and government measures. New-build sales are up for the first time since 2022 but remain historically low at 10% of total sales.
Ineos has warned that 200,000 UK jobs are at risk from Labour’s energy policy. Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s firm said the government’s Energy Profits Levy is deterring investment and undermining Britain’s energy security. At Grangemouth, Ineos chairman Andrew Gardner accused ministers of “squandering the Forties Pipeline legacy” as it marks its 50th anniversary. He claimed a third of extractable North Sea reserves are now being left in the ground, while Norway revives ten times more wells. The Times added that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may bring the levy to an early end in 2029 amid industry warnings of 1,000 jobs lost each month.
Scottish business minister Richard Lochhead is in Florida this week meeting US investors to promote Scotland’s expanding space technology sector. Speaking ahead of the Space Economy Summit, Lochhead said Scotland is “punching well above its weight” in satellite manufacturing and innovation. The country is already Europe’s largest producer of satellites, with a fully licensed launch site now open in Shetland. Scotland’s space industry employs over 7,000 people, generates £880 million for the economy, and aims to reach 20,000 jobs as the global market heads toward £1.3 trillion by 2035.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
Gabriel Pogrund writes in The Sunday Times (£) that chancellor Rachel Reeves is approaching the upcoming budget with a clear set of priorities: investing to cut NHS waiting lists, supporting the economy, and reducing household bills. Treasury officials signal these will guide her decisions, even as Reeves faces a larger-than-expected fiscal challenge following a downgrade to productivity forecasts. Pogrund notes she is seeking a bigger financial buffer than last year’s £9.9 billion, highlighting the tightrope she must walk between economic prudence, political expectations, and delivering tangible benefits ahead of council elections in May.
What does success at COP30 mean for future generations? Gordon Brown arguesin The Guardian that today’s world leaders will be judged on whether they rise to the moment. He highlights that while some countries excel in clean technology, commitments remain weak, and stresses that strengthened climate pledges, increased finance for the global south, protection of tropical forests, and tighter methane regulations are essential to secure a sustainable future.
In The Times (£) on Saturday, Alex Massie writes that Stephen Boyle, Scotland’s auditor general, repeatedly highlights rising costs, unsustainable spending, and poor transparency, yet the Scottish Government continues with short-term fixes and budget-busting pay deals. While the SNP boasts balanced accounts, Massie argues this masks deeper fragility: Scotland is spending beyond its means, and meaningful reforms to secure long-term financial sustainability are unlikely before the next election.
Shifting the dial - public attitudes on immigration
New polling by YouGov for Best for Britain on public attitudes ahead of the forthcoming Budget highlights a widening gap between national rhetoric and local reality on immigration.
According to the findings, only 26% of respondents identified immigration or asylum as one of the three most important issues facing their local community, less than half the 52% who viewed it as one of the country’s biggest national challenges. Immigration ranked seventh among local concerns, behind issues such as the cost of living, health, crime and housing. Analysts suggest this reflects a form of “manufactured panic”, where public concern is more strongly influenced by political and media narratives than by everyday experience.
Campaign groups note that in Scotland, where migration plays a vital role in addressing demographic decline and supporting sectors like health and hospitality, local discussions tend to focus on integration and workforce needs rather than border control.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Reform UK: Nigel Farage to give a speech on the economy
- UK: Q2 public sector productivity figures
- Brazil: C40 World Mayors Summit 2025
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Social justice and social security committee debate: Financial considerations when leaving an abusive relationship
- Stage 3 Proceedings: Land Reform (Scotland) Bill
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Health, social care and sport committee: Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill, consideration of the Bill at Stage 2
- Net Zero, energy and transport committee: Ecocide (Scotland) Bill, evidence of the Bill at Stage 1; Sustainable Aviation Bill (UK Parliament legalisation)
- Equalities, human rights and civil justice committee: Evidence on the Regulation of Care (Child Contact Services) (Scotland) order 2025
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Treasury
- Opposition day debate
- Housing, communities and local government committee: Housing conditions in England
- Verdict due in Tommy Robinson terrorism case
- The US holds off-year elections, including New York mayoral race
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio Questions: Rural affairs, land reform and islands, health and social care
- Stage 3 Proceedings: Land Reform (Scotland) Bill
- Scottish Labour party debate: Health
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Rural affairs and islands committee: Crofting and Scottish Land Court Bill, evidence on the Bill at Stage 1; Greyhound Racing (Offences) (Scotland) Bill, evidence on the Bill at Stage 1; Dog Theft (Scotland) Bill, consider the Bill at Stage 2
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Women and equalities
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Employment Rights Bill: Consideration of a Lords message
- Adjournment debate: Drug-related deaths
- Westminster Hall debate: Inequality of access to fresh and nutritious food
- Scottish affairs committee: Scotland secretary Douglas Alexander to speak to the committee on the work of the department
- House of Lords Oral questions: The economic and industrial impact in Scotland of the UKs recent defence agreement with Norway
- US Supreme Court hearing on Trump tariff powers
- A year since the US election won by Donald Trump, securing his second term as president
- UK: Bonfire Night
- Strike due to begin at Leonardo UK sites in pay dispute. The industrial action is expected to affect the defence company’s factory in Edinburgh, which makes advanced radars for military aircraft
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- First Minister’s Questions
- Members’ Business: Audrey Nicoll, protecting Scotland’s rivers
- Portfolio questions: Social justice and housing
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Westminster
- In recess until November 11
- UK interest rate decision
- COP30 leaders’ summit hosted by Brazil
- Diageo results
- UAE: Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship golf tournament begins
- Scottish Album of the Year Award Ceremony in Dundee
- Final of The Celebrity Traitors. BBC1
Friday
- Donald Trump hosts Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban at the White House
- UK: Halifax House Price index
- Nicola Sturgeon discusses her memoir Frankly at the Aye Write festival.
Saturday
- New Bolivian president takes office
Sunday
- Remembrance Sunday