Aoife Hollywood, client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is gearing up to deliver her spending review on Wednesday after crunch talks with her cabinet colleagues to get their support for her plans.
It was reported over the weekend that Reeves had faced a backlash from a number of ministers after she’d warned that not every government department would “get everything they want” and admitting “there were good things I’ve had to say no to”.
Departments have been bidding for their share of the money since December, with the plan due to set out funding for each for the next three years.
Local authority bosses and police chiefs are bracing for further squeezes as the government prioritises the NHS and defence. Reeves plans a 2.8% real-terms annual increase in NHS spending over three years, a boost that’s better than feared but still below the historical average since 1948. Defence spending will also rise above inflation, reflecting shifting priorities amid US pressure on Europe to boost military budgets.
Negotiations have been tough. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is still pressing for more police funding amid ambitious crime targets, and Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has been locked in last-minute talks over council funding. Reeves has been warned that this review is a “make or break” test for the government’s promise to build 1.5 million new homes in England during this parliament.
In Scotland, Finance Secretary Shona Robison has raised concerns about the ongoing lack of clear information on spending priorities for Scotland and urged the Chancellor to prioritise growth and fully fund the employer national insurance increase for Scotland’s public services.
Meanwhile, the dust from Thursday’s by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is far from settled. Over the weekend, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar came out swinging, accusing First Minister John Swinney of running a“dishonest and disgraceful” campaign that, he claimed, nudged voters toward Reform UK instead of addressing the real pressures facing communities. Swinney hit back, insisting he’s long been challenging Nigel Farage and blamed growing cost of living frustrations for Reform’s strong showing.
Labour will take confidence from the by-election win as their newest MSP is sworn in this week, with the party set to lead debates on health and planning at Holyrood. Swinney, meanwhile, has suggested a cabinet shake-up could be coming and acknowledged the SNP is still finding its feet after a bruising 2024.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Business activity in Scotland recorded a slight improvement in May, marking the first increase in six months, according to the Royal Bank of Scotland Growth Tracker. The output index rose from 47.4 in April to 50.5, reflecting marginal growth. This was primarily driven by a rebound in the service sector, which helped offset continued contraction in manufacturing.
Scotland secured 11 financial services foreign direct investment projects in 2024, an increase from nine in 2023 and the highest total in ten years. While London remains the UK leader with 39 projects, Scotland ranks second, with Edinburgh and Manchester tied as the top cities outside the capital, each attracting six projects. Edinburgh and Glasgow also advanced in the Global Financial Centres Index, with Edinburgh rising to 29th place and Glasgow climbing to 32nd, up five spots from last year and a notable jump from 51st two years ago.
Unite the union has warned that over 800 workers at Glasgow Airport could strikethis summer due to unresolved pay and conditions disputes. The affected companies include Glasgow Airport Ltd, ICTS Central Search, Swissport, Menzies Aviation, and Falck. If no agreement is reached soon, ballots for industrial action may be held within two weeks. This comes after a similar warning last month about possible summer strikes at both Glasgow and Edinburgh airports, where Menzies Aviation ground staff rejected pay offers they called “unacceptable.”
OpinioNation - columns of interest
On this week’s Newscast episode, Laura Kuenssberg takes us inside the finalTreasury battles ahead of Wednesday’s Spending Review. Business editor Simon Jack and Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies join Laura to unpack the numbers and the political drama.
In The Sunday Times (£), Robert Colvile warns that Labour’s plan to lower the voting age may not deliver the youth boost they expect. While young voters backed Labour in the last election, support has since splintered with Greens and Reform now surging. The real divide, he argues, isn’t just age but education and gender.
Writing in the Herald (£), Rosemary Goring argues that Trump’s presidency has accelerated billionaire power in American politics, undermining democracy and spreading chaos worldwide. She contrasts today’s self-serving ultra-rich with past figures like Andrew Carnegie, who saw wealth as a “sacred trust” to benefit society. Goring urges Scotland to build a stronger culture of private support for the arts, rather than relying so heavily on public funding.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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Westminster
- Oral Questions: Housing, Communities and Local Government
- Legislation, Planning and Infrastructure Bill (Day One): Remaining Stages
- China: May consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data
- Apple begins its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), which will run until Friday
- France: United Nations Ocean Conference, co-hosted by France and Costa Rica, begins in Nice
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Stage 3 Proceedings: Care Reform (Scotland) Bill
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee will consider the Land Reform (Scotland) Bill at Stage 2
- Health, Social Care and Sport Committee will take evidence on the Care Inspectorate; evidence on Food Standards Scotland; receive a briefing on research into barriers to participation in sport and physical activity
- Finance and Public Administration Committee will take evidence on the Scottish Fiscal Commission's economic and fiscal forecasts for May 2025; take evidence on the cost-effectiveness of Scottish public inquiries
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Westminster
- Oral Questions: Energy Security and Net Zero
- Legislation, Planning and Infrastructure Bill (Day One): Remaining Stages
- Adjournment Debate: Eighth anniversary of the Grenfell Tower fire
- Housing, Communities and Loal Government Committee oral evidence, delivering 1.5 million new homes
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Scottish government data
- Labour Market Trends, June 2025
- Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Q1 2025
- Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1990-2023
- Suspected drug deaths in Scotland, January to March 2025
- Scottish Government Workforce Information, Quarter 1 2025
- UK: Bank of England’s Q1 Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return data
- UK: June labour market figures
- 90th anniversary of the day Alcoholics Anonymous celebrates as its founding
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio Questions: Deputy First Minister Responsibilities, Economy and Gaelic: Finance and Local Government
- Scottish Labour Party Debate: Health
- Scottish Labour Party Debate: Planning
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In the Holyrood committee rooms
- Education, Children and Young People Committee will take evidence on education and skills, including from cabinet secretary Jenny Gilruth and minister Graeme Dey
- Rural Affairs and Island Committee will take evidence on the Natural Environment (Scotland) Bill; evidence on the Galloway and Ayrshire national park proposal; consider its approach to the scrutiny of the Crofting and Scottish Land Court Bill at stage one
- Economy and Fair Work Committee will take evidence on Grangemouth’s industrial future, including from Gillian Martin, acting cabinet secretary for Net Zero and Energy; evidence on the Community Wealth Building (Scotland) Bill
- Public Audit Committee will look at NHS in Scotland, spotlight on governance
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Westminster
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Financial Statement: Spending Review 2025
- Scottish Affairs Committee oral evidence, Universal postal service: Impact on remote, rural and island communities
- US: May CPI inflation rate data
- Poland: vote of confidence in prime minister Donald Tusk’s coalition government
- UK: Government spending review
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- General questions
- First Minister’s Questions
- Portfolio Questions: Net Zero and Energy and Transport
- Ministerial Statement, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics 2023
- Scottish Government Debate: A Migration System that Works for Scotland
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Scottish Government data
- Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) Weighted Scotland Estimates, Wave 133
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Westminster
- Oral Questions: Business and Trade
- Tesla set to launch robotaxis in Austin, Texas
- Russia: financial markets closed for Russia Day
- UK: April GDP estimate
- US: May PPI inflation rate data
- US: 125th US Open golf tournament begins and will conclude on Sunday
- Tesco Q1 trading statement
Friday
- EU: April industrial production figures and Q1 labour market data
- UK: Bank of England/Ipsos May Inflation Attitudes Survey
- KPMG-REC UK Report on Jobs
- UK: Assisted dying bill vote expected in the Commons
- King’s Birthday Honours List announced ahead of its publication in The Gazette
Saturday
- EU: 40th anniversary of the signing of the Schengen Agreement
- UK: King Charles III attends the Trooping the Colour ceremony in central London, marking his official birthday
- US: President Donald Trump celebrates his 79th birthday, on the same date that the US Army commemorates its 250th anniversary
Sunday
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Father's Day
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Canada: 2025 G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Kananaskis, Alberta, running until June 17