Finlay Whiteford, associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
A busy week lies ahead for Holyrood candidates, with manifestos expected from Scottish Labour, the Scottish Greens and the SNP. Just 24 days remain until polls open.
Last night saw Scotland’s party leaders take part in the first televised leaders’ debate of the campaign. The Debate Night audience in Paisley grilled the leaders on energy, immigration, the NHS and what, if anything, could trigger an independence vote.
All the leaders put pressure on John Swinney over the SNP’s record in office, as did many of the questions from the audience. Alex Massie has ranked the performances(£) of the leaders, putting Swinney and Malcolm Offord last and Ross Greer first, followed closely by Anas Sarwar. Do you agree?
Whoever forms the next Scottish Government will need to contend with ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty as this weekend’s peace talks between the US and Iran were fruitless, leaving many questions to be answered.
President Trump said his navy will block all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz, and that any vessels which had paid tolls to Iran would no longer have “safe passage on the high seas”. Meanwhile, Iranian officials have hinted at mines laid in the Strait, which could threaten passing ships.
Hungary held its long-awaited election (£) yesterday, where a record-high turnout resulted in a decisive victory to 45-year-old opposition leader, Péter Magyar. He defeated Viktor Orbán, who was in power for 16 years and was widely regarded as Russia’s strongest ally within the EU.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
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Scottish Labour says it will fund 9,000 more apprenticeship places (£) as part of its manifesto being launched this morning. Places would be funded by a reallocation of funds from Skills Development Scotland (SDS). This comes as research has found a decrease in funding being allocated to SDS from the Scottish Government, despite an increase in apprenticeship levy allocation received from the UK government.
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The Scottish Greens propose raising the school starting age to seven and want to introduce a play-based kindergarten system for three-to-six year olds. The changes would align with the Finnish education system, which the party claims would secure better child wellbeing and a more positive relationship with learning.
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Auditors for the SaxaVord spaceport on Unst have raised “significant” concerns over its ability to repay loans (£) after a technical default on a £10 million loan last year. In accounts filed with Companies House last week, Saxavord also confirmed it ran at a loss of £5.4 million in 2024.
- Scotland’s hotel sector outperformed that of the wider UK in February, according to new data from the RSM Hotels Tracker. Occupancy rates rose to 72.2% while gross operating profits grew from 15.3% to 17.6% on average. The data was boosted by international tourism to Edinburgh and St Andrews, with experts warning the risk from international conflict remains high.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
- Professor of economics Graeme Roy extolls the virtue of resilience in business (£) given a turbulent geopolitical climate. Noting that economies have historically prioritised optimisation and efficiency instead, he argues a more risk-based approach can prove more successful in the modern world.
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Responding to John Swinney’s pledge that an SNP government would take responsibility for the Clyde Tunnel, Mark Smith writes that this expansion of the government’s powers, if that promise is kept, would be no good thing (£) for Glasgow or Scotland.
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After ten CalMac ferries were out of service last week, Lewis resident and former politician, Brian Wilson, says island communities deserve better than the £10 million “ferries resilience fund" (£) announced by John Swinney last week. He argues the ferries scandal is symptomatic of a broader decline in “peripheral places” caused by government mentality.
Shifting the dial - recent polling
Last night’s debate saw Scotland’s political leaders go head-to-head for the first time this campaign. But what does the public think about them?
Recent polling, released by Diffley Partnership, found that John Swinney is the most favoured of the major party leaders (net favourability: -10%). Anas Sarwar has the lowest approval rating of all (net favourability: -25%), still higher than Keir Starmer (net favourability: -47%).
The poll also predicted the SNP will win the most seats but fall short of a majority. The research team’s modelling suggests the following outcome at the time of polling:
- SNP – 62 seats
- Reform – 19 seats
- Labour – 18 seats
- Conservative – 13 seats
- Green – 10 seats
- Liberal Democrats – 7 seats
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Scottish Labour launches its 2026 election manifesto
- House of Commons and House of Lords return from recess
- UK grooming gangs inquiry laid before Parliament
- Spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank begin in Washington DC
Tuesday
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Westminster
- The Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee will take evidence on water sector reform
- The Culture, Media and Sport Committee will take oral evidence from executives at TikTok, Meta and TV stations on children’s television and video content
- The Foreign Affairs Committee will take evidence on malign actors seeking to undermine democracy
- The European Affairs Committee will take evidence on dynamic alignment with the EU
- Housebuilders, Taylor Wimpey and Vistry Group will give evidence to the Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee as part of its inquiry into housing conditions in England
- Microsoft and AI experts give evidence to the Business and Trade Committee
- Keir Starmer's ethics adviser to appear before Commons Public Administration Committee
- IMF World Economic Outlook
- IEA monthly oil market report
- UK: British Retail Consortium March Retail Sales Monitor
- Israel and Lebanon hold ceasefire talks in Washington
Wednesday
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Scotland
- Prime Minister’s Questions
- The Energy Security and Net Zero Committee will take evidence on revisiting the nuclear roadmap
- The Scottish Affairs Committee will take oral evidence on GB Energy and the net zero transition
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves expected to attend IMF spring summit in Washington DC
- IMF Fiscal Monitor
- UK: Treasury forecasts for the UK economy
Thursday
- The SNP launches its 2026 election manifesto
- Pre-election period begins for English local elections
- UK: February GDP estimate, trade figures, Services Index and Production Index
Friday
- The Bafta Games Awards
- UK: March insolvency figures