Aoife Hollywood, senior client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
The new week begins with Scotland still adjusting to something unfamiliar: a World Cup opening win. A 1–0 victory over Haiti in Foxborough on Saturday night brought only their fifth-ever win at the tournament and their first in 36 years. The reaction, both in the stadium and back home, was emphatic.
That sporting moment now gives way to a week in which attention moves quickly back to politics.
The Makerfield by-election is now just days away and is increasingly viewed less as a routine contest than a test of Labour’s direction under Keir Starmer. Over the weekend, the Sun on Sunday and the Mail on Sunday reported that Andy Burnham could move within days to test the waters of a leadership challenge if the result breaks his favour.
Up here in Scotland, two by-elections sit just beneath the surface of that wider churn. Aberdeen South is developing into the more closely watched of the pair, with both SNP and Conservatives treating it as a reading of political temperature in a constituency shaped by the shifting fortunes of oil and gas. Kemi Badenoch is expected to return for a third visit on Tuesday as the Conservatives invest heavily in a seat they see as central to any narrative of recovery, with a win marking their first Westminster by-election victory in Scotland for more than 60 years.
At the global level, leaders gather in Évian-les-Bains for the G7 summit, with the meeting shaped heavily by the ongoing Iran conflict and its knock-on effects for energy markets and the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump is now expected to attend, adding a volatile dynamic to already sensitive discussions, while Emmanuel Macron hosts what is increasingly viewed as a politically charged final stretch of his international leadership. Sir Keir Starmer arrives under pressure to project stability abroad as domestic challenges mount.
Those pressures are already evident in Westminster, where the defence funding row continues to ripple following ministerial resignations that exposed deeper tensions over Britain’s long-term military investment plans. Focus now turns to Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis as he reviews the Government’s Defence Investment Plan ahead of its expected release before next month’s NATO summit.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Scotland is set to benefit from a major UK-Japan investment partnership after the two governments announced an £18 billion commitment across energy, technology and financial services. At the centre of the deal is a new Offshore Wind Compact, which could unlock up to £9 billion of Japanese investment into UK renewable energy projects, including the Ossian and Green Volt developments off Scotland’s east coast. The projects form part of 5.9GW of planned floating offshore wind capacity, enough to power eight million homes, with the agreement being hailed as a significant boost for Scotland’s clean energy sector and long-term economic growth.
The early exit of women from engineering continues to raise concerns across Scotland’s STEM sector, with industry leaders warning it is undermining long-term skills and productivity. Writing in The Herald, Jennifer MacDonald of Scottish Engineering said women are entering engineering in strong numbers and progressing successfully through education and early careers, but too often leaving the profession in their 40s across both SMEs and larger employers. She argued the issue is not attracting talent but retaining it, calling for a more joined-up approach across education, employers and industry bodies to improve progression routes, workplace culture and flexibility in order to keep experienced women in the sector.
Charities across Scotland are preparing for potential changes to pensions and Inheritance Tax rules next year, which could reshape legacy giving. Writing in The Herald, Helen Kidd of Lindsays said HMRC guidance suggests unused pension funds and some death benefits may soon fall within IHT, prompting rising enquiries from families and advisers. She said charities could become more central to estate planning as they remain IHT-exempt, while donor advised funds are also growing in popularity as a flexible alternative to traditional charitable foundations.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
John Harris in The Guardian argues that a visit to Makerfield revealed a constituency marked by shuttered high streets, strained services and a lingering sense of decline. He found voters split between cautious respect for Andy Burnham, deep frustration with Labour’s record, and growing openness to Reform UK’s message on immigration and national identity.
Dominic Hauschild and Lara Spirit in The Sunday Times warn that Britain is falling behind in preparing for modern warfare across land, air and sea, as Russia scales up its military production at speed. They highlight figures showing the UK has around 8,000 drones in its arsenal compared with Russia’s capacity to produce millions a year, alongside concerns over how few Typhoon jets are routinely ready to scramble. The report points to growing pressure on ministers to close a widening capability gap before it becomes a strategic weakness.
Writing in The Sunday Times, Matthew Syed argues that Britain is a “sleeping superpower” with significant untapped economic potential. Drawing on a behavioural science example of how small “nudge” interventions can produce large effects, he suggests that targeted reforms, including tax simplification, planning changes, welfare adjustments and immigration reform, could generate substantial growth. He contends that the UK already possesses the core strengths needed to succeed in the age of AI, and that greater policy focus could help unlock a stronger economic trajectory.
Alessandro Vinciarelli explores how ELIZA, a 1960s-era “therapist” chatbot built on simple pattern-matching, first revealed how readily people confide in machines, a dynamic now echoed in today’s AI mental health tools. He argues that modern chatbots are being tested for detecting and supporting conditions such as depression through subtle behavioural signals in speech and expression. While the promise is significant, he cautions that these systems should complement clinicians rather than replace judgement.
Shifting the dial - recent research
If it was from your sofa rather than your local pub, you are far from alone.
New YouGov research suggests that World Cup 2026 is shaping up to be a distinctly home-based tournament for British fans. With many matches kicking off late due to North American time zones, 60% of viewers say they're more likely to stay in, while more than half plan to watch home nation matches at home with family.
That shift has important implications for brands. Grocery retailers and FMCG companies appear better placed to benefit than pubs or delivery platforms, with 26% of fans expecting to prepare food and snacks at home compared with just 14% planning to order takeaway. Only 8% expect pubs and bars to be their primary viewing venue, and one in four viewers say they will visit pubs less during the tournament.
For retailers, the opportunity may be less about World Cup-themed promotions and more about owning the at-home match experience. The 2026 World Cup looks set to be Britain's biggest "sofa tournament" yet.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Housing, Communities and Local Government
- Remaining stages of the Cyber Security and Resilience (Network and Information Systems) Bill
- Business and Trade Committee: Artificial Intelligence, business and the future of the workforce
- Expected update on the government’s social media plans
- Three-day G7 summit in Évian, France starts
- President Xi Jinping’s birthday
Tuesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- General Questions
- First Minister’s Questions (Backbench Members)
- Ministerial Statement: Scottish Government Investment in ‘Our Union Street’ and the People’s Palace
- Scottish Government Debate: Strengthening Scotland’s Partnership with the Third Sector
- Members’ Business: The 10th Anniversary of the Death of Jo Cox
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Westminster
- Oral questions: Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office
- Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting to deliver a speech
- Royal Ascot horseracing meet begins
Wednesday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- Portfolio Questions: Justice; Health and Care
- Scottish Government Debate: Affordable Bus Fares
- Members’ Business: The Cost of Undiagnosed ADHD or Autism in Outcomes and Life Chances
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Scottish Government data
- Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 2025
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Westminster
- Prime Minister's Question Time
- National Security (State Threats) Bill: Second Reading
- Westminster Hall debate: Tackling illicit activity in high street shops
- Energy Security and Net Zero Committee: Managing the future of UK oil and gas - Oral evidence
- Scottish Affairs Committee: Connectivity in Scotland: Fixed links - Oral evidence
- May consumer price index and producer price index inflation rate data
- US interest rate announcement
Thursday
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In the Holyrood chamber
- General Questions
- First Minister’s Questions (Party Leaders)
- Ministerial Statement: 10th Anniversary of the UK Referendum on EU Membership
- Ministerial Statement: Provisional Outturn 2025-26
- Ministerial Statement: Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan - Annual Progress Report 2025-26
- Members’ Business: Sustaining Jobs and Securing the Future of Scotland’s Universities
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Scottish government data
- Labour Market Trends, June 2026
- Westminster
- Oral questions: Department for Culture, Media and Sport
- Makerfield, Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-elections held
- March public sector employment data published
- NATO defence ministers meet in Brussels
- Bank of England interest rate decision
Friday
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By-election results land overnight
Saturday
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UN World Refugee Day
Sunday
- Summer solstice
- Father’s Day