Cameryn Dick, researcher, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Holyrood may be in recess, but the constitutional debate will not be taking a break. Fresh from its conference in Aberdeen, the SNP begins rolling out Choose Scotland, the six-figure campaign John Swinney has billed as the party's most sophisticated yet, alongside new commitments on bringing buses back into public control and a £30m Scotland Together Fund.
At the same time, Swinney has said he will take up Andy Burnham's offer to work together on pushing power out to Scotland's cities and regions. How quickly those talks get going, and whether they extend to employment support still run by the DWP, will be one to watch as both governments test how far co-operation can go while the independence argument heats up.
Swinney himself heads to India this week, leading a Scottish trade delegation to New Delhi, Ahmedabad and Mumbai from Tuesday. The visit will focus on strengthening commercial links across food and drink, renewable energy, education, tourism and technology, with the UK-India trade agreement expected to create more than £3bn in opportunities for Scotland’s priority sectors by 2030. For Scottish whisky and salmon in particular, the mission will be an opportunity to build on efforts to expand access to one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
Energy could provide the week's biggest Scottish story. Burnham has promised decisions on the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields “shortly”, with new polling suggesting more than six in ten Scots back approval for both. Whichever way he goes, the call will set the tone for his relationship with the north-east and the wider energy sector ahead of the Budget.
Wednesday's inflation figures carry extra weight this month. September's CPI rate is the figure conventionally used to uprate working-age benefits next April, and Tuesday's labour market data will offer another read on the economy's health. With chancellor John Healey delivering his first Budget on 28 October, this is the final full week of pre-Budget positioning.
Further afield, MEPs gather in Strasbourg for the European Parliament's plenary session, where the 2026 Sakharov Prize laureate will be chosen.
Holyrood returns from recess next week - and don't forget that the clocks go back an hour on Sunday.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
The Herald reports that Scottish farmers are warning that rising production costs and growing reliance on imported food are putting domestic agriculture and UK food security at risk. Domestic production accounted for 60% of the UK’s food supply in 2025, down from 65% the previous year, while food, feed and drink imports rose by 4.8% to £67.8bn. NFU Scotland is calling for emergency energy support, continued red diesel duty relief and stronger safeguards on imported food. The concerns come as the average Scottish farm recorded just £500 in profit from agricultural activity in 2024-25.
Bus operator McGill’s has threatened legal action over Scottish Government plans to bring buses under public control, with its owners likening John Swinney to a dictator. Swinney told the SNP conference that buses would be brought under public control by 2031 through franchising and regulation, with legislation to be introduced at Holyrood next year. McGill’s chairman Ralph Roberts warned the plans could cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of pounds a year and said the firm would go to “every court in the land” if needed.
Glasgow-based CardioPrecision has reached a milestone in the US after its robotic-assisted aortic valve replacement technology was adopted for routine clinical use at the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio. The company, spun out of the NHS through InnoScot Health, says its CoreVista System can improve surgical precision and patient recovery. Its technologies have also been adopted by 75% of cardiac centres in Scotland. The development comes as the global robotic-assisted surgery market, currently valued at around £13bn, is projected to reach £34bn by 2033.
Britain’s biggest banks will unveil bumper third-quarter earnings over the next two weeks, as speculation mounts that John Healey will raise taxes on the sector in his Budget, according to Daily Business. Barclays kicks off the reporting season on Thursday, with Lloyds and NatWest - parent of the Royal Bank of Scotland - following in the days after the Budget. Options open to the chancellor include restoring the bank surcharge to 8%, which trade unions estimate could raise £9bn over four years, with supporters pointing to the roughly £15bn in profit the four biggest lenders made in the first half of this year. However, deVere chief executive Nigel Green warns that a raid would amount to a tax on lending, hitting mortgage holders, savers and small businesses, and notes that tax paid by banks already rose 8.5% to £39.1bn in 2025/26.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
Writing in The Sunday Times, former prime minister Rishi Sunak warns that China’s expanding manufacturing dominance poses a growing threat to British and European industry. He points to the decline in German car exports to China, mounting manufacturing job losses and the rapid growth of Chinese car sales in the UK as evidence of Beijing’s state-backed industrial strategy. Sunak argues that Britain should join a coalition of allies to coordinate trade measures against Chinese overproduction, potentially accepting tariffs on electric vehicles despite the risk of higher prices for consumers. He also highlights the importance of closer alignment with the EU, given that it accounts for just over half of British car exports.
With international climate negotiations struggling to secure agreement on fossil fuels and plastic pollution, Professor Frank Biermann argues that progress must no longer depend on every country being on board. In The Scotsman, he makes the case for coalitions of like-minded nations to forge ahead with environmental agreements despite opposition from major powers, including Donald Trump’s US administration. He suggests these alliances could also drive reforms to strengthen the UN’s oversight of global sustainability. Biermann’s argument comes ahead of his delivery of the 47th TB Macaulay Lecture at the National Museum of Scotland in Edinburgh on Wednesday.
Kemi Badenoch has blown up Andy Burnham’s strategy for victory, according to Renie Anjeh in The Telegraph. While headline polls show the Conservatives stagnating, he points to improving perceptions of the party, a growing pool of potential Tory voters and Badenoch’s rising personal ratings - noting that no party has won an election since 1979 without the more popular leader. With some polls now putting the Tories level with or ahead of Reform UK, Anjeh warns that Labour’s strategy of framing the election as a choice against Farage could unravel. He adds that evidence of waning public appetite for higher taxes and spending gives Badenoch an opening.
Shifting the dial - recent research
New YouGov research published ahead of the SNP conference suggests the party faces a challenge in rebuilding public confidence, with many Scots viewing it as out of touch, untrustworthy and focused on its own interests. First minister John Swinney is viewed unfavourably by 53% of Scots, while prime minister Andy Burnham has a net favourability rating of +9. The findings also point to uncertainty over Scotland’s changing political landscape: opinion is divided on whether the Conservatives remain a ‘main party’, while only 26-30% consider the Greens or Reform UK to fall into this category. The economy remains the most pressing concern for Scots (48%), followed by health (39%) and immigration (33%).
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
NB: The Scottish Parliament is in recess until 25 October.
Monday
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Westminster
- Commons, oral questions: Defence
- Commons: Northern Ireland Troubles Bill, Committee of the whole House
- Westminster Hall debate: e-petition relating to sentence reductions for guilty pleas in controlling or coercive behaviour cases
- Adjournment debate: Potential government support for Glasgow School of Art’s Mackintosh Building, led by Torcuil Crichton MP
- Northern Ireland: Belfast High Court hears a judicial review of Northern Ireland Secretary Sir Chris Bryant’s decision to ban the Drumcree parade
- France: European Parliament plenary session opens in Strasbourg, running until Thursday
- China: Q3 GDP estimate
- St Andrews: Raisin Monday foam fight
- Glasgow: Funeral of Paul Ferris
Tuesday
- India: First minister John Swinney leads a Scottish trade delegation to New Delhi, Ahmedabad and Mumbai
- Scottish Government data: Labour Market Trends
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Westminster
- Commons, oral questions: Health and Social Care
- Commons: Northern Ireland Troubles Bill, conclusion of committee and remaining stages
- Reports: ONS labour market statistics, including employment, unemployment and earnings
Wednesday
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Westminster
- Prime minister’s Question Time
- Commons, oral questions: Northern Ireland
- Opposition Day debate in the name of the Liberal Democrats
- Scottish Affairs Committee, oral evidence: Scotland’s whisky industry, tariffs, trade and growth, with representatives of the Scotch Whisky Association
- Reports: ONS September consumer price inflation, producer price inflation and public sector finances, alongside October private rent and house prices
- Prime minister Andy Burnham due to meet Sultan Haitham bin Tarik during his state visit to the UK
- Wales: King Charles, Queen Camilla and the Prince of Wales visit Aberfan to mark the 60th anniversary of the disaster that killed 144 people, including 116 children
Thursday
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Westminster
- Commons, oral questions: Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
- Business Questions to the leader of the house, followed by a general debate on Black History Month
- Lords, debate: Effects of artificial intelligence, screen use and social media on children and young people
- Lords, debate: Proposals for a written constitution
- Public Accounts Committee, oral evidence: Clean Power by 2030 and electricity grid upgrades, with officials from DESNZ, Ofgem and the National Energy System Operator
- Reports: ONS annual employee earnings, including low and high pay and the gender pay gap; ONS crime statistics for England and Wales, year ending June 2026
- Barclays Q3 results
- France: European Parliament announces the 2026 Sakharov Prize laureate
- USA: Discovery hearing in President Donald Trump’s legal case against the BBC
Friday
- Reports: ONS retail sales, Great Britain, September 2026.
Saturday
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France: Congress of the far-right Rassemblement National in Orléans.
Sunday
- Brazil: Presidential run-off between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Bulgaria: Presidential election
- Serbia: Parliamentary elections
- British Summer Time ends, with clocks going back an hour at 2am