John Cumming, senior client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
All eyes this morning are on how and when Iran will strike back after the United States attacked three nuclear sites in the Middle Eastern country over the weekend. While president Trump has (unsurprisingly) heralded the strikes as a monumental success, Iranian officials have described the damage as minor.
Either way, it is undoubtedly the case that the Iranian regime is weakened. Additionally, while their retaliatory options are limited, they have the potential to be hugely damaging. Politico has reported that the Iranian parliament has backed a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, where 30% of global oil shipments passes through. This is already having an impact, with oil prices hitting a five month high, settling at around $79 per barrel. Iran’s network of terrorist organisations also offer another terrifying option for retaliation, with business secretary Jonathan Reynolds warning that the UK now faces an increased risk of Iranian-backed terrorism. Whatever happens next will have major implications for the world economy.
Closer to home, following his announcement that he intends to stand as an independent candidate at next year’s Scottish Parliament election, Fergus Ewing has urged his now former party to put independence on the back burner for the next ten years to allow the SNP to rebuild trust with voters by delivering in government. Ewing also pointed to Germany and Ireland, where opposing political parties have joined forces, as examples of the kind of government the SNP could form after the next election if it puts independence to one side.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
The Herald is reporting this morning that there is fresh hope that jobs can be savedat bus firm Alexander Dennis after the company said it was considering moving its manufacturing operations from Falkirk and Larbert to a site in Scarborough. A source close to the firm has said that it is engaging with both governments "in good faith on the possibility of any intervention", with UK and Scottish government ministers working to explore how UK state aid rules could be used to save the 400 jobs currently at risk.
Ahead of the publication of the Scottish Government’s delayed Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) and new Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan on Wednesday, the IPPR has called on ministers to set out how they will fund key priorities, including the eradication of child poverty. The think tank’s Scotland director, Stephen Boyd, also urged finance secretary Shona Robison to provide a longer-term strategy for tax, spending and public sector pay.
Talks are underway between the Acorn carbon capture project and the MarramWind offshore wind farm, after both projects were granted seabed licences for the same area. Opposition MSPs have criticised the Scottish Government for the apparent oversight, while developers behind the Acorn project have insisted the issue is manageable with Crown Estate Scotland and a co-location forum working on solutions to ensure both initiatives can coexist.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
The Federation of Small Business’s director of devolved nations, Colin Borland, argues in The Herald that Glasgow’s booming film industry shows how giving consideration to small details can drive major economic impact, with the sector contributing up to £60 million annually. Borland suggests that similar attention is needed for Scotland’s broader economy, where a focus on supporting SMEs could drive much wider prosperity. He highlights key issues like late payments, costly statutory sick pay, and limited credit access which continue to hurt small firms, and calls for immediate action in the Autumn Budget and industrial strategy to aid SMEs.
The Financial Times’ chief foreign affairs columnist, Gideon Rachman, has argued that the US, Israel and Iran could all suffer as a result of the escalating conflict in the region. While recent strikes have severely weakened the Iranian regime, and the nation’s infrastructure, they also make it more difficult to predict Iran’s next move. President Trump’s decision to engage in the conflict will also spark domestic challenges, with a significant proportion of his support base unconvinced of the merits of US involvement in foreign conflicts. As Rachman notes, the only positive outcome for Trump would be the neutralisation of Iran’s nuclear programme, and the establishment of a stable, pro-Western government in Tehran, which seems unlikely at this stage.
The Scotsman’s Rachel Amery wrote a piece about Scotland’s falling birth rate, which has dropped to a historic low of 1.3 babies per woman, with population growth now reliant on migration. Amery notes that the key factors driving this trend include poor parental leave and unaffordable childcare. She echoes calls from campaigners who are demanding better paid leave and improved parental support to make parenting more financially viable.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- The UK government is expected to publish its industrial strategy and national security strategy
- Reform UK: Nigel Farage to hold a press conference in Westminster at 9am
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House of Commons
- Work and pensions questions
- MPs to hold a debate marking pride month
- Former national security adviser, Mark Lyall, to give evidence on the Chagos Islands deal at the Foreign Affairs Committee
Tuesday
- NATO: PM Keir Starmer to attend summit in the Hague
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Holyrood
- Public finance minister, Ivan McKee, to appear before the Housing Committee, discussing NPF4, alongside the Scottish Government’s chief planner, Fiona Simpson, and other officials
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House of Commons
- Foreign Office ministers take questions from MPs in the chamber
- Leader of the Israeli opposition, Yair Lapid, to give evidence at the Foreign Affairs Committee, discussing the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict
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House of Lords
- Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, to appear before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee
- Industry: Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds to address the SMMT International Automotive Summit alongside his shadow number, Andrew Griffith
- Wedding bells: Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and media personality Lauren Sanchez begin a three-day wedding party in Venice
Wednesday
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Holyrood
- Finance secretary, Shona Robison, to unveil the Scottish Government’s Medium-Term Financial Strategy and Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan
- Patrick Harvie to lead a members debate on the future of Glasgow’s bus services
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House of Commons
- PMQs
- Scottish secretary, Ian Murray, to appear before the Scottish Affairs Select Committee
- Chief secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, to appear before the Treasury Select Committee, discussing the spending review
- Ofgem CEO, Jonathan Brearley, to give evidence on energy pricing at the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee
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House of Lords
- Peers debate the Planning and Infrastructure Bill at second reading
- Music: first day of the Glastonbury Festival
Thursday
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Holyrood
- FMQs
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House of Commons
- MPs hold a debate to mark Armed Forces Day
- Speech: Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch to address TheCityUK conference
- Economy: Andrew Bailey to address the British Chambers of Commerce conference
- UN: 80th anniversary of the first 50 countries signing the Charter of the United Nations
Friday
- Welsh Labour: party members gather in Llandudno for their conference
Saturday
- UK: Armed Forces Day
- Tech: Tesla to run self-drive test from the company’s Austin factory
Sunday
- Music: Sir Rod Stewart takes to the stage at Glastonbury for the festival’s legends slot